There are no good choices for a mate when you suck. It will still be a bad ticket. Besides the one possibility, Petraeus, won't do it. Not conservative enough? lose support of the GOP base Too conservative? loose more independents
Obama has a serious, serious problem with white voters. Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster in 2008, has a poll out today showing Romney +2 in Iowa, a state that Obama won by 10 in 2008. Earlier this week, Rasmussen had Romney +16 in Indiana, a state that Obama won by 1% in 2008. We've seen Wisconsin go Republican recently and of course the state's demographics are 80% white. If Wisconsin goes Republican, Obama has big problems getting reelected. Big problems. Think that might lead to Paul Ryan as VP? maybe
As soon as Romney releases his taxes and clears up the perception he didn't pay any for a decade we'll see Romney begin to rise in the polls.
I've said all along Romney will reach to the right as a sop to the base. He just has to choose someone who won't embarrass the party with a lack of (1) intelligence and (2) preparedness for the big stage. Both Obama and Romney are damaged goods and "suck" as candidates. Each ticket is "bad". If Romney's choice appeases the right-wing and doesn't come off as a complete ignoramus on the trail and in debates, the mission is accomplished. TJ, I don't know if Paul Ryan is ready.
Oh TJ - it's time for your daily spanking! http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/ This just got real! Ho Ho Ho TJ, D&D is no longer equipped for your amateur shenanigans. Time to go back to the little league. See ya. Ho ho ho!
From a policy and intelligence standpoint, he's as strong as it gets. The vulnerability would be if Israel/Iran start warring, then a Romney-Ryan ticket looks weak in the foreign policy area. Given Bibi's friendship with Romney, I could see him waiting until after the election to pursue Iran. I think that's part of why Romney is waiting so long to name his VP pick -- he wants to see which issues will rule the day in October, and the longer he waits, the more visibilty he has. McDonnell would be my pick, personally. Veteran who is strong on foreign policy and brings Virginia votes.
List of most accurate pollsters from the 2008 election below. #1 is Rasmussen. http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/ On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on. Here is the list – 1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)** 1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)** 3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1) 4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27) 5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)* 6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)* 6T. ARG (10/25-27)* 8T. CNN (10/30-11/1) 8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1) 10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3) 11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27) 12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
The election is a joke. If this continues, Missouri & MT might go to Obama. What a devastating blow that would be to Republicans.
No offense, but the 538 methodology, described here: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/06/pollster-ratings-v40-methodology.html is far more sophisticated and robust from an analytical standpoint than the study you reference, which just lists a bunch of polls, all taken on different dates and compares to the final result. The 538 structure uses far more polls, adjusts for the time frame they were taken, etc.
If Romney panics and picks Ryan as VP this election is over. Making the Ryan budget a center piece of the campaign would be a disaster for Romney.
I'm sorry you and Major got caught with your pants down. By the way, try some lotion every few days. Looking ashy. My statement was that Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster in 2008, and we were discussing Presidential polls. I have no idea why you thought Senate and gubernatorial polls from 2010 were relevant. My statement stands, and yours falls. Sorry, rookie. OWNED By the way, Major, how about a contribution to the site?
hahahahahaahha That's all you got? That's it? You are defending a polling company that headlines Republican fundraisers as "unbiased" By the way, Nice self-portrait you put up there TJ. You must work out! And way to bend over for your spanking.
Romney cries uncle Romney To Obama: Please Stop Attacking My Business Record, Taxes Mitt Romney, battered by Democratic attacks over his Bain Capital record and taxes, is calling on President Obama to agree to a truce over his business career. “Our campaign would be — helped immensely if we had an agreement between both campaigns that we were only going to talk about issues and that attacks based upon — business or family or taxes or things of that nature,” Romney said, according to excerpts of an upcoming interview with NBC’s Chuck Todd released Friday.
