Does that mean it hits NJ or LA? Praying it's not Houston. I'm having a house built right now so I don't want any hurricanes coming our way. The floods in Cypress last month have slowed the build to a crawl...a hurricane would make it even worse!
Not wishing, lived near Galveston for many years, total weather nut, just looking at the numbers, Texas coast. The current conditions are steering the storm our direction and they are relatively stable. Yes it is ridiculously early, but look at the data. Even the models are out further than they usually are.
Any chance of this hitting Galveston next week? I got one more week of working there and this is the last thing I need.
no one knows where it will land but if it did hit the texas coast it would probably be next weekend. I'm going to guess that it pushes more north over the next couple days and hooks into FLorida's panhandle.
It's way early to call anything for Ernesto. It appears to be strengthening more than anticipated right now. Usually that means that it would curve further north than models show. They are also forecasting that maybe we would see a turn toward the nw due a weakness in the ridge. So, maybe northern gulf coast is the best GUESS at this point in time. There is also this. Do not take that model seriously that has it heading this way. This thing hasn't even formed yet, but if it does I can't see anyway Ernesto does not start to bend north before hitting the Gulf. I am not an expert though. This weekend is going to be very interesting. I haven't even mentioned 90L which already looks like a TD.
I will sip my scotch and hope for some rain. This looks to be one interesting tropical season thanks to the HUGE High pressure over the Atlantic. If it stays, there will not be a lot of fish storms. Do not like.
The models are shifting further south for Ernesto which means they are projecting that it will not intensify as first thought. That would take it more north, which could still happen. However, what looked like the setting up of a consistent pattern all the way to the Texas coast, looking less likely. Good news. We may dodge the first one of the season that was coming our way.
If there is one thing I've learned watching this storm over the weekend is to never doubt the Euro and GFS models. Those models have absolutely nailed this storm up until now. These models correctly predicted that despite such good conditions for strengthening it would almost dissipate before re-organizing. Despite nearly completely falling apart, Ernesto is now in the process of "bombing". It is far stronger than ever and will probably be a hurricane very soon. Most models have this storm heading into CA and Mexico but it would still be a good idea to keep an eye on this one especially with things changing so rapidly right now.
Tropics are now getting a bit more active... 3 invests this morning. http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ Eric Berger's blog.. http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/08/weekly-weather-pleasant-but-deep-in-the-tropics-much-lurks/
Yep, quite a bit more active. 95L off the coast of Mexico seemingly poofed overnight but in the last few satellite shots appears to making a comeback. It will need to be watched since as you know anything that develops in the Gulf of Mexico eventually makes landfall somewhere. 94L now a TD and likely a TS very soon. This one looks like it could be real bad news for Florida or somewhere along the east coaste. Pretty much all models have it intensifying and smacking into something as a significant hurricane.
Some of the computer models have shifted west quite a bit. The GFS and HWRF in particular have landfall near New Orleans now. This could be a serious problem for them if this thing starts strengthening like the models are showing. Oddly the NHC's latest forecast just released does not put them in a hurricane watch yet. I think they are waiting for the Euro to show the same thing before ordering an evacuation of New Orleans. Those two models are far and away the best models for tracking these things that we currently have.
Ok. We may need to prepare for something from Isaac. The GFS continues to shift west. It seems to be unlikely that it could shift this far west but the GFS has been the best performing model this season. Even better than the Euro for this year. Here's the latest model at 90 hr's out that puts it disturbingly close to Texas.
Here's the latest. Euro is not shown on this but it is still showing landfall around MS/AL. NHC is still leaning towards the Euro given its track record and apparently the professionals are also leaning towards that solution. It just seems unlikely for it to continue to slide west with a trough to the north. At some point it will grab hold of it and send it off NE. It's hard to see it not happening as it continues to gain latitude.
