Technically speaking, I think the Dragic signing required $8.5M in cap room (to account for his incentives), whereas Lin "only" takes up $8.37M. I'll stand by my position that, if Dragic takes the team option or partial guarantee on his fourth year (as opposed to pushing for the player option), he'd be a Houston Rocket right now, even at the same/similar money on a per year basis. Still, I don't blame him for pursuing--and getting--the best possible contract as an unrestricted free agent.
Bima, is Dragic's cap hit really $8.5M? The "bonus" is for making the All Star game, a rather unlikely even IMO.
If the report is true that his base salary is $7.5M with an extra $1M incentive if he makes the All-Star team, then my guess is that such incentive would be categorized by the league as "unlikely" and that his cap hit on the Suns' books would be listed as $7.5M. However, I believe that the Suns, in order to sign Dragic to that contract, would need to have $8.5M in cap room. Otherwise, an All-Star Dragic would be making more than his new team had room to offer under the cap this summer.
Exactly. And its not like Lin has plateaued skillwise either, he is 23, 24, years of age people. The kid is still learning, and is sure to improve. The sky is just not falling. Lin is nearly identical to the more experienced Dragic. The difference in talent is not that wide. And Lin's production was actually a tick better. Small sample sized be damned. There is more upside than downside. Plus Lin will do what Dragic just could not, create more awareness and interest for the Rockets.
Lin wasn't destroyed by Williams man. Your mistaken if you think he was. Williams went 8-12 from 3 in the second match up. Every single one of his 3's were contested by Lin. That accounts for 24 of Williams 32 points. Williams also fouled out with like 6 minutes left on the clock. Williams outscored Lin but he didn't outplay him. Lin still had 21 points 7 rebounds 9 assist 4 steal 3 TO.
Clutch: Seriously though, why not? What makes Dragic more likely to be worth his contract? What makes Kyrie Irving/John Wall worth their draft stock/contract when coming out of college? Proven zero upside bench players like Ridnour and Steve Blake are apparently worth $4M+. I mean, I am not saying Lin is guaranteed to be an allstar, or guaranteed to be an above average starter, or even guaranteed to be worth his contract. But... How is it such a given that he ISN"T likely to?
Yes. But he didn't destroy Lin. I watched both match ups. In the first game Lin definitely took Williams by surprise so I kind of discredited that game. But in the second one, where both were prepared for one another Lin handled his own enough to say that Deron didn't destroy him. Williams was hot from down-town that game went 8-12 from 3. Last time I saw Williams do that was the all-star games.
I clearly understand the marketing and business aspect of Lin. I'm not worried about that, that will go well. The basketball part is what i'm worried about.
It isn't a "given". Likely implies 'improbable', not 'impossible.' Deal with it. Dragic is a European pro with 5 years of NBA experience, a real resume, and playoff experience plus mentorship under Steve Nash. It isn't insane to suggest he is 'more likely' to fulfill his contract. Regardless independent of anyone else, it is unlikely to expect a 2nd year player to live up to a big free agent contract. If he lives up to it, it will be impressive, not expected. It's not personal against Lin.
Deal with what? "Improbable" is not a fact. I say, "probable", go deal with that. Dragic has had more experience, and more opportunities. If anything that gives him the lower ceiling/higher floor since he has had ample chances to prove himself. Lin played 35 games. I'm not sure how anyone can just magically comes up with a set ceiling, especially given what he has done. I think there is certainly a chance that he fails to live up to the contract, but also a chance that he massively exceeds the contract. I'm not sure how anyone can say which is more probable. I'm just curious as to why most assume the former. As for the whole second year big contract thing, that is a function of his unique situation: undrafted and undervalued, therefore venturing into FA much earlier than your usual rookie. If guys like Kanter or Biyombo or Valanciunas from last year's draft were somehow on the free market right now, they would all command heft contracts irregardless of what they have done in the NBA(jack ****)- because the NBA pays potential. If a guy actually puts up some good numbers like Irving or Cousins, they would get $10M/year easily in the free market. $8M for Lin is fair, if not a steal, not because of what he did last year, but for the possibilities of what he could become.
I think a lot of that has to do with the media hype surrounding him. If Lin had just played the way he did and there was no "linsanity" ie. the media attention most would be talking about all the potential he has in the world and the latter (him exceeding his contract). It is human nature to pick apart things that are overly hyped. I always laugh. I have never seen a player go from being overrated to underrated so quickly in the years that I have been watching basketball.
Dragic actually signed a $30M deal over 4 years, which is $7.5M annually (less than Lin). He has a $1M incentive in his contract if he makes the All-Star game. http://www.azcentral.com/sports/suns/articles/20120719goran-dragic-returns-phoenix-suns.html Unless Goran Dragic makes the All-Star Game 4 straight years (in which case the Rockets would look fairly foolish), the Rockets indeed are paying Jeremy Lin more than Goran Dragic got.
I haven't clicked this thread since the beginning because I figured it was just a CF reach-around thread, but now I see salary talk and PG comparisons. wtf
