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Why Dwight Howard will sign in Houston if traded here.

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by trugoy, Jul 17, 2012.

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  1. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    http://www.economist.com/blogs/gametheory/2012/04/predicting-performance-basketball
    The latest article by Daryl Morey contains this gem;

    So what does the past tell us about Max Level Free Agents in the NBA?

    Well the simple truth is that NO MAX LEVEL FREE AGENT in the history of the NBA has EVER walked away from more money.

    hold on...hold on....what about Lebron James and Chris Bosh joining Miami?

    First off, Lebron and Bosh were both s&t to Miami, they did not sign outright, in fact Miami gave several 1st round draft picks to Cleveland and Toronto to do so

    http://www.aolnews.com/2010/07/10/cavs-agree-to-lebron-james-sign-and-trade-for-draft-picks/

    http://www.aolnews.com/2010/07/09/report-raptors-agree-to-bosh-sign-and-trade-with-heat/

    Sure, Lebron and Bosh used leverage to make it happen, but bottom line is that they still wanted that extra year of guaranteed money.

    Also with regards to money
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/38146901/LeBron_Can_Make_More_With_Heat_Than_Cavs

    Isn't it interesting that Lebron actually took MORE money in Miami than he did if he resigned with Cleveland, despite the larger raises in the CBA.

    http://o.canada.com/2012/05/15/raptors-cap-situation-this-summer/

    So Chris Both and Lebron both received MORE money by signing in Miami vs staying with their own teams, what's more they were both greedy enough that Miami had to give up multiple first round draft picks to give them an "extra year".

    So all this portends well for Howard. Houston has one of the best tax structures in the country, NO TEAM will be able to offer more money to Howard. That means Howard will literally be the FIRST MAX FREE AGENT in history to walk away from more money...I don't think it will happen.
     
    #1 trugoy, Jul 17, 2012
    3 people like this.
  2. Jamers

    Jamers Member

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    good job, good effort
     
    #2 Jamers, Jul 17, 2012
    1 person likes this.
  3. iconoclastic

    iconoclastic Member

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    There's a first time for everything though.
     
    #3 iconoclastic, Jul 17, 2012
  4. Horry33

    Horry33 Member

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    1st...Title is misleading IMO.
    2nd...there really isn't anything here that couldn't have went in another Howard thread

    for the record...I do agree with your guess that Howard would re-sign here
     
    #4 Horry33, Jul 17, 2012
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2012
  5. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    Well said. It's also important to point out that If we call his bluff, Howard cannot walk to a better basketball situation or a larger market than Houston. The only two legitimate contenders for his services in free agency would be Atlanta and Dallas, both similar size markets with similar basketball situations. (Dallas does have a superstar, but he will be 35 years old.)

    What incentive will Howard actually have to leave $30M on the table, as long as we are clear that we refuse to engage in any sign & trade deal with any team after the season?
     
    #5 OremLK, Jul 17, 2012
  6. Ottomaton

    Ottomaton Member
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    As much as it pains me to say, Dallas is technically a significantly larger media market than Houston.
     
    #6 Ottomaton, Jul 17, 2012
  7. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    No way, Dallas and Houston metro areas are almost identical in population. They're very close. If the basketball market seems bigger right now it's only because the Mavs have had more success than us in recent years. They also don't pull in the China market the way we do
     
    #7 OremLK, Jul 17, 2012
  8. Trackball

    Trackball Member

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    Huh. All this time, I thought LeBron and Bosh went to Miami as free agents.

    Well, good to know that the Cavs and Raptors at least got something out of it.

    And thanks for the insight--hopefully Dwight reads this.
     
    #8 Trackball, Jul 17, 2012
  9. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    Just more fluff.
     
    #9 coachbadlee, Jul 17, 2012
  10. OlajuwonFan81

    OlajuwonFan81 Member

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    Apparently your definition of Fluff is FACTS.
     
    #10 OlajuwonFan81, Jul 17, 2012
  11. coachbadlee

    coachbadlee Member

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    Call it what you want, it's still another garbage excuse to chase after a clown who does not want to be here.
    This guy is pouting now and talking about not playing an entire season if he doesn't get his way. Still, you ladies are going gaga over him.
     
    #11 coachbadlee, Jul 17, 2012
  12. Ottomaton

    Ottomaton Member
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    Perhaps you should look into the way they measure media markets. It not really a subjective measurement. A quick google shows DFW ranks #5 in television households per Nielsen, with Houston ranking #10, for instance.

    Whatever happens in China is irrelevant to the measurement of Houston's media market.
     
    #12 Ottomaton, Jul 17, 2012
  13. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    Yes but the difference between #10 and #5 is very small, dude. For example, the difference between New York (#1) and Dallas (#5) is 7.4 million compared to 2.5 million.

    The difference between Dallas and Houston is 2.5 million compared to 2.1 million.

    That is not enough to make a significant difference IMO.

    Source: Nielsen
     
    #13 OremLK, Jul 17, 2012
  14. DonatasFanboy

    DonatasFanboy Member

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    if he does, he may leave just to be the coolest.
     
    #14 DonatasFanboy, Jul 17, 2012
  15. vinsensual

    vinsensual Member

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    He did flipflop and opt-in for his last year with Orlando to avoid a trade here. If that's not a precedent, it's still an indicator of his feelings for Houston.
     
    #15 vinsensual, Jul 17, 2012
  16. giddyup

    giddyup Member

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    I would also think that "media" is not just restricted to television. What do they mean when they say "media market?"
     
    #16 giddyup, Jul 17, 2012
  17. c1utchfan925

    c1utchfan925 Member

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    Bosh and Lebron both left anyways, maybe yeah they got signed and traded which helped both the team they were leaving and the players respectively but they still left. Not a whole lot of teams will be able to sign Howard though. No team that can be relevant in the next few years. Morey should take this chance but who knows how it'll play out until it plays out. My guess is the Magic will play hard ball and wait until Jan 15 when more players are available (D.mo if he plays well and Lopez who just signed the max deal he could with Nets).

    I really hope we don't have to wait that long till something happens with Howard, hopefully the sooner the better. It suits all teams involved for that type of transaction.
     
    #17 c1utchfan925, Jul 17, 2012
  18. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    I'm sorry but this really makes Zero sense. lebron, carmelo, and bosh got the money they wanted and didn't walk away from it. BUT they went to a different team they still left because they didn't want to be where they were and forced the team to get something out of it.

    really ignorant comparison.
     
    #18 peleincubus, Jul 17, 2012
  19. AroundTheWorld

    AroundTheWorld Member

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    He won't necessarily stay in Houston, but good point that we would likely get something of value back, so it would not just be a rental.
     
    #19 AroundTheWorld, Jul 17, 2012
  20. poing

    poing Member

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    Maybe the thread title was literal. So if Dwight Howard gets traded here, he will literally sign his next contract in Houston as part of a sign & trade to get both the money and the location he wants.
     
    #20 poing, Jul 17, 2012
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