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A different perspective: Odds of lotto pick becoming Howard caliber vs Howard staying

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by meh, Jul 13, 2012.

  1. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Member

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    Where did I say they couldn't have a star on the team already? I said a team that didn't already have an allstar they drafted.
     
  2. panamamyers

    panamamyers Member

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    "A team that didnt already have an allstar they drafted on the roster?"

    ^---Right there
     
  3. panamamyers

    panamamyers Member

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    For the statement you made to have the impact you desire...you would have to say when was the last time a team won by trading for a star player....then period. No more caveats to the statement.
    But that would not take very long to answer, because the Lakers traded for Kobe, got Shaq, traded for Gasol, Miami traded for Shaw, got Lebron.
    Almost EVERY team that wins gets a cornerstone guy that they did not draft.
     
  4. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Member

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    No bro. I'm sorry that I lost you with the "caveat" that virtually no team has won a championship without drafting a star first. It's not a hard point to understand
     
  5. primtim24

    primtim24 Member

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    The main reason for this statement is that teams that don't have any all-stars typically don't have enough trade pieces to make a deal for a superstar. Its very difficult, dang near impossible, to trade garbage for gold. The Rockets however happen to be one of the few teams in the NBA that has enough legitimate trade pieces to trade for a superstar.
    And Meh, you sir have hit the nail right on the head. If it was so easy to get a franchise player just from sucking then the LA Clippers and the Bobcats would have a few rings by now.
     
  6. Aruba77

    Aruba77 Member

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    The reason why the clips and cats dont have rings is because they're terrible organizations. Not because they were unlucky in the lotto
     
  7. redwhiteone

    redwhiteone Member

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    The courage of meh is admirable but I would want to ask, what are our goals for the upcoming season or for several seasons for that matter? A championship? Playoffs? We are up against stacked teams next year. If we trade the future for D12 and he does not resign then what? If he does, we will be relieved but that does not automatically mean that we are bound for the promise land.

    Truth be told, I'd rather want a decent team first and let the superstar/s (whoever that is) be the missing piece to finally go to the promise land.

    I'd welcome Dwight. We really need a bruiser center but it depends on what the Magic ask for. I respect the OP but if the Magic want too much then it's time to rebuild then recoil folks.
     
  8. K-Low_4_Prez

    K-Low_4_Prez Member

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    tell me what we have been the past two years? So you want to rebuild just to go back to the 14th pick? I'm confused!!
     
  9. meh

    meh Member

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    I agree with others who don't think there's a difference between star traded for, versus star drafted. The only problem with trading for a star has to do with salary. So yes, if for some absurd reason the Rockets can see the future and know the next superstar can be taken with their lottery pick, then that's preferable to trading for Howard. But the odds of that happening? Pretty slim. The odds of getting Dwight Howard to sign an extension? Somewhat reasonable assuming we're not horrible next year.
     
  10. darksoul35

    darksoul35 Member

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    AMEN on that one.
     
  11. meh

    meh Member

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    Well, I don't think I'm courageous, since the worst thing that can happen is that people blast me and my e-penis shrink. Not really a big deal. :)

    As for my goal, I want a contender. I want Morey to build a contender. And I believe that Dwight Howard is by far the best starting piece to build that contender. More than Anthony Davis. More than Kyrie Irving or John Wall or DeMarcus Cousins or any other recent top draft pick. I think Dwight Howard takes us closer to contending status more than any other player we could obtain.

    Can this plan fail? Of course it can. Just about every plan by NBA GMs are most likely NOT going to produce a championship team. Failure rate is very high in the NBA because of the lottery and incredible sway that individual players have on the team, compared to baseball and football.

    But my point is, I like my chances with this move. More than going in any other direction.
     
  12. redwhiteone

    redwhiteone Member

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    My bottomline here is that I'd rather rebuild first and not risk the future for Howard. Will Dwight make us better? Yes. If he stays then that's great and but the risk that he will not is greater.
     
  13. meh

    meh Member

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    The Magic with a motivated Dwight Howard is a perennial 50-win team. This despite horrendous front office moves that have sucked horribly and laughed at by other GMs around the league.

    On the Rockets, we can also be a 50-win team next year with Howard. Do you think Howard can win 50 games with a really old Dirk and no one else? Because that's what he's facing in Dallas. Do you think Dwight Howard wants to play for $3mil/yr with the Lakers or the Nets? Because that's what he's facing in LA/NY.

    Just because a situation isn't perfect doesn't mean it's not the best. If alternatives are worse, why wouldn't Howard choose the best of what's available?
     
  14. Patience

    Patience Member

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    Look at the Clippers draft history and tell me which lotto picks they have had that became superstars:

    http://http://www.nba.com/clippers/history/draft.html

    Other than Blake Griffin, it is a pretty meager list. Sure, the Clips are a bad organization, but they have been in the lotto nearly every year since forever, yet they have yet to ever end up with a LeBron / Durant / Duncan quality player. I think that qualifies as being "unlucky" in the lotto.
     
  15. primtim24

    primtim24 Member

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    Here are the players from the last 7 drafts to make an all-star game, and in bold are the Superstar Players:

    2005 - Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Andrew Bynum, Danny Granger, David Lee
    2006 - LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, Rajon Rondo
    2007 - Kevin Durant, Al Horford, Marc Gasol
    2008 - D.Rose, Westbrook, Kevin Love, and Roy Hibbert
    2009 - Blake Griffin
    2010 - No One
    2011 - No One

    I urge you to go back and look at their last few seasons worth of draft history. Since 2005 there have been on average 2.14 all-star players per NBA Draft, and only 1.42 superstar quality players per draft. So if there are only 2.14 all-star caliber players in a given draft, and only 1.42 superstar quality players in a given draft then let me ask you what is the probability that team X will get that player? Whether a team is considered poorly run or perfectly run, it is a huge gamble to think that having a top-10 pick automatically nets you a Superstar
     
  16. redwhiteone

    redwhiteone Member

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    Well, I can guarantee you that I'm not one of those who'll bast you :). I really hope that Dwight will come (for the right pieces), resign and believe that this team will bring home a championship/s. It's clear that we and everyone on this forum want to be a contender that will eventually lead us to the promise land. It's still vague if the trade will pull off but let's cross our fingers.
     
  17. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Member

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    Here's the past ten years, excluding the most recent two because we just don't know yet how good those young guys can become. I'm listing "superstars" who were superstars for any five year stretch, because theoretically you start with one of these and then build around them to get a championship contender. And you don't always need two, see Dallas with Dirk Nowitzki:

    2002 - Yao Ming, Amare Stoudemire
    2003 - Lebron, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade
    2004 - Dwight Howard
    2005 - Deron Williams, Chris Paul
    2006 - None
    2007 - Kevin Durant
    2008 - Derrick Rose, Kevin Love
    2009 - None
    2010 - None

    It's hard to say with Blake Griffin in 2009 and John Wall in 2010, but I personally wouldn't want to build a championship contender around those two. OK so excluding them, I've got 12 guys I would list as guys you could build around to win a championship over the period of 9 years. As in, if you had a 2011 Dallas-caliber supporting cast around one of these guys, then they could go all the way.

    That's 1.3 players per year. You're right in saying the odds are not good in the draft. But if you're going to tell me that Daryl Morey would be given the #1 pick in the next draft, versus getting Dwight Howard, I'm sorry I would still take the draft pick. I have faith that Morey could find that guy if he were picking first.
     
  18. meh

    meh Member

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    I was speaking of players on Dwight Howard's level. Half the players you listed are not on Dwight Howard's level. Attitude issues aside, Every GM in the league will take Dwight Howard over Bosh, Amare, DWill, and Kevin Love. Claiming these players are at Dwight Howard's level is almost as silly as thinking Gay is on Durant's level.

    If Amare, Bosh, DWill, and Love are capable of carrying their teams deep into the playoffs every year, then they can belong in a discussion with Dwight Howard.
     
  19. meh

    meh Member

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    Sorry, forgot to add Melo here. Melo is not on Howard's level either. I may have missed a player or two that belongs in Howard's class, but Melo is not one of them.
     
  20. rocketjunkie

    rocketjunkie Member

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    Not technically correct, but the Boston celtics were a 20/30 win team with Paul pierce for years. It wasn't until they swung the trade for Garnett and Allen that they won the championship. So they basically traded there way to the top. But your point is a good one but I think it only points to the fact it is truly hard to trade for an Allstar. But if you can do it, then whether by trade or draft you've achieved the same result. In any case, I'd say we have at least a 50/50 chance of pulling off the trade at this point. That's better odds than landing the top pick in the draft and getting a superstar.
     

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