-You Bynum fans need to realize that Houston will have to give up pretty much the amount of prospects and picks since the Lakers have jack. Maybe less bad contracts -I think Morey could come out of this a little bit better than expected in regards to assets kept and bad contracts taken on. He has a lot of leverage here now that Howard has stated he is definitely done in Orlando. Unless Howard opens up a new list of destinations he will definitely re-up, Morey can grind the offer down, as long as he knows it's better than what Atlanta and others are willing to do.
First, 15% chance is far too low because we've already addressed the "Where else is Dwight going to go" thing. But even assuming it's 15% - what are the chances that tanking will get us a player as good as Dwight Howard? Take the top 5 picks from 2006-2010. How many of them are as good as Howard? Durant. Maybe Rose, Griffin, Love, or Cousins in the future could reach Howard's level, but I doubt it. So, out of the 25 picks between 2006 and 2010, you have a 20% chance of getting a player who is anywhere close to Howard, much less as good as him. You like those odds?
Out of the 4 scenarios, it's only a win if he stays. But it's very unlikely , because why do you think he would want to stay on a above average but not quite elite Houston Magic team? If he bolts, it's bad regardless of whether we get to keep our own 1st round pick or not. With Howard the Houston Magic won't suck bad enough, so that pick won't be a high lotto pick anyway. I don't see how that's going to help a rebuilding team much. Not to mention we lose all the young talent and picks we accumulated by doing the trade.
Thanks Carl, great thread. Guys, don't fool yourselves. If Dwight gets traded to Houston, where will he go in FA??? NYK, LAL, Brooklyn CANNOT sign him in free agency because they have no salary cap room. That's why he wanted a trade; he knows that none of his wnated teams can sign him in FA. So where will he go??? To Houston with good roleplayers, cap space, and the ability to offer him $30 million extra against.....WHO else? He hates Atlanta... there's no one else to go to. And as Carl pointed out, we may have room for another max contract.
What are the odds of dwight being a cancer to the team just because he didn't get his way? That's what's I'm worried about the most.
I do not believe that any of those players can hold a candle compared to Howard. He is probably the best defensive player in the NBA and was a 20/14+ guy last year. Short of Lebron he probably is the absolute best player the Rockets could add to their roster.
That's the point. Even being generous and assuming that players like Blake Griffin and Cousins could reach Howard's level, the odds are very small that tanking will actually get a player as good as him. If we actually factor in players who truly are on Howard's level, those odds become even more miniscule. Therefore, the gamble on Howard staying is better than gambling on a high lotto pick that more likely than not won't be as good as Howard anyways.
1. Not going to happen. 2. Most likely outcome - leaves us far worse off than today 3. Not going to happen 4. Still far worse off than today When you look at it this way, you can see why I am saying, let's just tank and forget about this Howard non-sense.
If we take on the bad contracts, we need to keep Parsons, Lamb, White and D-Mo. We need some hope if Dwight bolts or even worse, we sign him longterm and his back starts giving him more problems. That happens to be the other part not factored in to your equation. Yes I know any player can get injured at any time, but he is just coming off of back surgery. After going through a few years with T-Macs injuries and and Yao's foot, this tends to scare me quite a bit. In addition people talk about bringing on another max player. It seems people think Dwight won't leave b/c he would be leaving a ton of money on the table. Why would CP3 leave and do the same thing? He already seems to be in a good situation in a destination city. Other guys that you do tend to sign to max deals seem to be the guys that you are not quite sure deserve the max and have to over pay.
Can't ORL amnesty Hedu or J-Rich and get rid of one of those bad contracts that way? Then we only need to take on one of the "big bad" contracts. Theoretically, or course.
Really depends on the deal. Dwight wants to be traded to NY or LA so he can make more money. If Houston trades for him, Houston becomes the place he can make the most money. While he can't make as much as if he was traded to LA or NY, those places can't pay him nearly as much as Houston if he is traded to Houston. From what I've read, his "choices" are purely about money. Sure being in Houston will pay him less than his ideal situation for money. If he decides walk on Houston, he will be losing even more money from his ideal situation. Guy making decisions based on money choosing to lose money is irrational. Which is possible since his agent has gotten his hopes up about Brooklyn trading for him, but I expect the agent to be rational and let him know where the most money is...Houston. On building a roster around him, I expect DMo to be an okay starter with White giving him a push. Parsons is an okay starter especially considering OKC's best player is Durant. SG is weird...the way Rockets have been approaching FA, only Gordon was looked at here. I expect either Martin or Lamb stays a Rocket. Lamb could be a bust and Martin seems tailor made for playing with a defensive center. PG..Rockets have issues.
If Morey can somehow pull off this deal without amnestying Scola, could we amnesty Hedo after having just acquired him?
