because the center position is probably the most likely position for a player to bust. it's too hard to guess how a 7 footer in college will do in the NBA.
How do you know what you are going to need in three years when your draft picks are finally ready to be reliable contributors? Drafting for need makes zero sense. Also there is no prize for fielding a legit 1, a legit 2, a legit 3, a legit 4 and a legit 5.
I cant understand for the life of me how it makes more sense to pay 8 mill per for a guy that has proven nothing as a full time player versus 1-2 for a player that has proven nothing. Just seems stupid and dangerous to pass on a guy you know you can control versus taking the chance in free agency when chi could still match, unlikely but they could.
You also do not have playing time for tons of young PFs, who have the same BUST rate at that range as the centers do, so why would you NOT consider need? DD
I disagree, I think you can look at a player like Zeller and assess with a better than good degree of accuracy what kind of player he should be at this level. He is 7 ft tall and moves well and at worst you're looking at, well, you're looking at Omer Asik and for a hell of a lot cheaper. Fact is Morey gambled and lost there, because he went want over need. And as much as you may like Royce White he plays a position that you probably wouldn't rate as top five in terms of need. Zeller with regards to need is right at the top of the team's list. I think Morey was scared off by Boston with their two picks would jump up and get him at IDK 17, it may have happened but as it stands he lost that hand in hindsight. Five years from now, I think Zeller is a solid 8pts and 8rebs guy; while White, well, he's the prototypical boom or bust guy. It could very well work out beautifully if Asik is your 8 and 8 guy and White is something special but I think it's far easier to see Zeller hitting his mark than it is to see White revolutionize the position which is what he will have to do to be considered a success simply because of this team's needs.
Maybe because the Rockets trust their scouting and the BPA they pick is usually the actual BPA? They have been the one of the best late 1st round/2nd round drafting team in the league recently. Brooks, Landry, Budinger, Parsons, and even the euro stash picks seem to at least be NBA level (Donuts, Lull, Eliyahu).
Playing time does not equate to developing, as is yet another common misconception amongst fans. Developing is studying, practicing, running drills, sets, motions, D-league, garbage time. Furthermore, the final roster isn't even set.
I agree that the roster is not set, but now that we have all these forwards we are again "NOT IN CONTROL" of our own roster. In that we are relying on cast offs from other teams to balance it out - and hope that they in turn need young PFs, or view the PFs we took as the BPA, when more often than not, it is not the case. I think you go in with the BPA strat, but consider need if you get to a level where the players left are rated about equally.... DD
Thank god the Rockets decided that their Small Forward picture was set last year and didn't make the mistake of unsettling super-lotto pick rookie Marcus Morris by taking on Florida bust Chandler Parsons. Obviously, drafting for need was the way to go, with Kentucky superstar big man Josh Harrellson and Tokyo Apache mainstay Jeremy Tyler still on the board.
would have love to have zeller on the rockets , guy is very skilled in the post and perimeter. Mcfail and Morey wanted more PF's instead so they skipped over him SMFH
The flip side of that is that the Rockets had Morris as the BPA about 30 picks before Parsons. Doesn't say a lot about whom is actually the best player, now does it? Or maybe you are saying they are so crap at scouting the players that they do a shotgun approach and pick a ton of players at one position and hope. Either way does not exactly elicit confidence now does it? DD
The problem with signing for need is: 1) You have to outbid 29 other teams that have the cap space. Now when it's a max contract, that list is very short but then it becomes, where does he WANT to go. But you still have to be on the top of that short list and right now we don't have max money without some serious trades for nothing. 2) You have to overpay for a RFA. Not only does your offer have to beat what the other 28 teams could offer but you have to make it an unpalatable amount to the home team. Either way, we are overpaying.
Wow, so for Zeller at worst you're looking at a top 5 defensive center in the league - it's amazing he fell out of the lottery. What I'm saying is that the draft is a crapshoot no matter what; and all we have to do is go back one year to see how disastrously stupid it would be to apply your theory. Basically your theory is how the Sam Bowies and Greg Oden's of the universe get drafted. And we know how you feel about that: [price is right horn] B-bum-ba-dum-boooom....[/price is right horn]
What I have been saying forever. Morey's plan that he is trying to execute on is a very low probability one, which seems bizzare that he would be trying to do it - being that he is a numbers guy. DD
We don't know that Zeller or Asik will amount to that, Asik's minutes were so limited it is impossible to tell if it translates when and if he becomes the starter, not to mention that he is protected by Tom Terrific defensive schemes as well. DD
I think Morey said in an interview that he didnt like drafting centers, because they normally take 5-7 years to develop, and by then they are on their 2nd or 3rd team. There is no way any NBA ready 7 footer would be drafted outside the top 5 much less the top 10. When you need a starting center, you dont want to pick up a guy who will be ready in about 5 years. With the state of the rookie deals now, you end up having to give a guy like Deandre Jordan near max money 2-4 years before they are fully developed. I would rather pay a former defensive player of the year (Camby) 10 mil than pay Deandre 11+ mil based on potential that he may never end up progressing to the level to earn. If your problem is that we didnt pick up and develop any Centers while we had Yao, I agree, but I dont think that Morey was responsible at that time.
