I guess its easier for someone else to take the chance and risk the bust,but then attempt to get the same guy later than to draft the guy and develop him yourself right? When gasol,asik,and gortat were drafted,their teams already had highly drafted centers at their position too.
If you draft for need, say you need a center, and you grab a center and he sucks, guess what? You still need a center. PG and C are the hardest positions to project. BPA all the way for draft, there are very few exceptions.
You draft bpa, no question about that. The question is, how do you determine the bpa? It seems like every draft and all around the league their are a lot of talented forwards - so even though those players may be bpa available, their worth may be below some others. So especially if you don't necessarily draft for yourself, you should draft the player, that is worth the most. But you never draft for need, that just doesn't work. The draft is always a little bit of a lottery and you need to take the player with the best odds to win. You sign for need because you know what you are getting.
No idea why they didn't draft Zeller at 16 and Melo at 18 and instead further muddied an already muddy position with more guys that will require PT to develope. I mean I like this roster a hell of a lot more when you consider we are still playing for the 8th seed with Asik. Lowry / (Dragic) Martin / Lamb / (Lee) Parsons / Morris? Scola / Patterson / Morris? Zeller / Melo / (Camby) plus tons of $$$$$ / flexibility
It all comes back to draft tiers. I believe it was hollinger that wrote the tier article, but essentially prospects are broken into tiers (Anthony Davis being the only tier 1), good chance Royce and lamb were both tier 3, whereas Zeller was tier four and melo probably five.
Understood, but I'm sure you're aware of the success rate of any NBA draftee outside of the top ten; at that point it's a roll of the dice anyway. What's the difference between rolling a six sided die vs a seven or eight sided die at that point. Chances are fairly high they'll all miss anyway, but if you draft two guys at a position of need then you have essentially doubled your odds of hitting at a position where you really need help.
I think the Rocket's did it this way because they project all of the their lottery picks to be better than the centers that were available AND they project Asik to be better than the centers who were available. Only time will tell if they are right or not. But taking multiple forwards who they think have the potential to be possible stars is cheaper than trying to get even one free agent who has already proven he has star potential in the NBA to come here. You can't do free agency strictly as best player available because you have to convince the free agent to come here, which is pretty hard if you already have multiple players at the position already. That's disregarding the difficulties of getting a star player to come play for a team that isn't already a contender. The fact that you have to pay more money for free agents than rookies also makes it a bigger investment to get someone who isn't a huge upgrade or a need.
Agreed, especially at the center position. Thabeet is the poster boy for that highlighted statement. The Grizzlies were so desperate for a franchise center they took that guy with the #2 pick. And then Houston was so desperate for a franchise center they traded for the same guy, hoping they could fix his game. And there are teams out there who are still willing to try and make something outta this guy. If he were playing any other position on the court and was as big a stiff at that position, he would be out on the street by now. Once the NBA finally gives up on him, he will still have a long career overseas, make my words because "you can't teach height"...
Sure, but If nothing else, Morey has shown us the ability to draft players who will have relatively long NBA careers. A player that goes bust is a flushed pick. If you have serious question marks about a guy like Melo (who everyone does), you take a more known commodity in Royce white. It's no secret that Zeller would have been our 18th pick, but melo wasn't. That tells me the following Tier 3: Royce white Tier4: Zeller, Terence jones Tier 5 or 6: fab melo Even though melo fulfills a position of need, there is a better prospect on the board in jones who has a better chance of giving you a higher return on investment. I'm sure Morey knew he was going to Apply the arenas rule to Asik during the draft, so It negated any reason to reach for a player like melo.
If you took an anonymous poll of NBA GM's on whether they'd have Melo or Asik, I'd hazard a guess that it would be either 32-0 or 31-1 on the principle of bird in hand.
Sam Fisher always liked to shoot his threes. But I don't see where you get the extra points. There are only 30 GMs in the league! By the way, I do agree with your statement.
leebigez, I think your entire argument--a worthy discussion topic, to be sure--is based on the premise that Fab Melo (or any other center) was among the top TIER of available players when the Rockets came up at 12, 16 or 18. Seems like the Rockets probably had Lamb and White ranked in a higher tier than the available centers. I think Zeller was clearly the Rockets' target at 18, so it's not like they weren't interested in a center in this year's draft. It seems like the Rockets simply got "outflanked" by Dallas and Cleveland at 17. Mistakes like that happen sometimes. But I don't think they regret taking White over Zeller. As for Fab Melo, I just don't see him as ever being a quality NBA center. Maybe it's just me, but I think the Rockets didn't have him ranked anywhere near 18 on their board. Terrence Jones is far and away a better prospect than Melo. And on free agency, as CH and others have pointed out, the big difference in going "BPA" in the draft is that THE PLAYER DOESN'T HAVE A CHOICE IN THE MATTER. Anthony Davis couldn't just choose to go to another team (barring some Steve Francis-Kobe Bryant antics). Meanwhile, if a free agent ("FREE" being the key word) doesn't want to come to your team, then you're just SOL. Asik was the Rockets' free agent target all along. They hope they've got their guy. And they've got three terrific young prospects from this years draft. Let's all just enjoy this small little piece of (relative) success for two seconds.
BPA in free agency doesn't work since the players get to choose where they go. Even if you believe you are better than what is on the team's roster, will you sign to a team that already has 5+ players playing your position? Probably not.
You don't get out of mediocrity by continually acquiring mediocre players. You go for a home run. TWill was a boom or bust type who failed, Marcus Morris is a boom or bust type who seems to be failing. Lamb/White both also look like boom or bust types, guys like Zeller on the other hand looks like a safe/solid pick.
Why overpay for a position player, who stinks in his position? We can use Morey's logic to defends about the dumbest move he's made since he's been GM, but there's no logic to it. We went all the way to Australia to pick up some scrub to back up Yao. Now we're overpaying for a player, who stinks. But is barley a rotational player. Pass up on a solid homegrown, UNC pedigree product in Zeller. No he's not an All-Star player. No he won't be great in his rookie year. But is his performance going to be that much of a difference to pass up on him, and then sign Asik? Who is Morey kidding? We either tank this year, or quit acting like we're competeting. I was fine with tanking. I was fine with Lamb, but passing up on Zeller, to turn around and then say we're singing a player to fill our need. Then what the Eff are we doing drafting PFs every time we draft.
Leeb, I believe you are spot on here - and I think that you draft BPA if the data is clear as to whom the BPA is or isn't. I do think you have to consider need once you pass the first 7 or 8 picks, because most of the guys at the next level are all about the same bust rate, so you should be taking shots at people in a position of need. I have never understood our propensity for 6'9" PFs.....and why the last center we drafted was Joey Dorsey..... I am not convinced Asik is that good, and would rather have rolled the dice with Zeller..... This whole BPA thing is just baffling, when there is no clear cut BPA. DD
