OFFICIAL: Omer Asik a Houston Rocket (3 year/$25.1 million)

#1 Thibs plays his starters heavy minutes, even during the short season... So that point is irrelevant.
#2 Yes, Taj Gibson is worth 8.5 million...

 

Taj Gibson is worth more than and will get more than $8.5M a year whether in an extension or a new contract.

If you don't know how good Taj Gibson it, you need to watch the Bulls more.

 

That 3rd year stings a bit but the reason for it is so the Bulls won't match so it has to be done.

One thing to consider is that Houston can keep this guy (if signed by them & not matched) for 2 years and then trade his expiring contract for the 3rd year to a team that wants to free up cap space... that is, if he is deemed too expensive by then to earn that 15 mill.

Personally, I like the signing. Wish he was as talented as Howard but then again I wish for lots of things.

The fact that Houston has chased after this guy for a while makes me trust their judgement far more than some of the fans. It's a roll of the dice for sure but they had to do SOMETHING. I am just glad he's not yet another player who wants to only play in either Chicago, NY, LA, or Miami.

Getting tired of hearing no decent free agents want to go to play for Houston...

 

The Rockets would amnesty Scola or Martin if necessary to get Gordon. I expect the Rockets to offer Gordon a deal with a massive poison pill which will send them scrambling to match.

Gordon and Asik would make the Rockets far more attractive to other prime free agents or stars looking to be dealt.

 

There is no poison pill the Rockets can offer.... the Hornets have the cap-space to match anything the Rockets throw at them.

 

Is anyone else afraid that the Bulls will match? i think they just might.

 

I don't think FAs will find playing with Gordon and Asik enticing but that's me

 

Not sure if this was posted yet... but good read and helps put the offer and 'crazy' amount into context. Go Morey!

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/asik_120701/nba-how-houston-used-loopholes-woo-omer-asik

In the current collective bargaining agreement, it's known as the Gilbert Arenas rule. In the next CBA, it might be known as the Daryl Morey rule, because the Houston Rockets GM just drove a Mack truck through every one of the provision's current loopholes in agreeing to a three-year, $24.3 million offer sheet with restricted free agent Omer Asik, formerly of the Chicago Bulls.

Let's set aside whether Asik is actually worth $24 million over three years for a moment -- we'll tackle that later -- and just ponder the evil genius of the structuring of the contract and how it gives the Rockets a huge advantage in prying him away from the Bulls.

Under the "Gilbert Arenas" provision of the league's collective bargaining agreement, a player such as Asik -- a second-round draft pick coming off his second season -- can be offered only a maximum of the midlevel exception in free agency for the first two seasons but can be offered any amount up to the maximum in years after that.

Houston took advantage of this provision by limiting his offer to three years, rather than the maximum of four, and offering the maximum eligible salary in Year 3.

It's so damaging because of how the league assigns the salary cap and luxury tax hits for the respective sides. In Houston's case, the amounts are averaged over the three seasons, requiring the Rockets to have a little more than $8 million in cap room to consummate the deal.

No biggie for Houston; they would happen to have exactly $8 million lying around if they renounce their rights to Marcus Camby, cut Shaun Livingston, Greg Smith, Courtney Fortson and Diamon Simpson, and either waive Jon Leuer or use the stretch provision on Jon Brockman. Houston could also get there by renouncing its rights to restricted free agent Courtney Lee, but that seems more unlikely.

And looking ahead, the Rockets are still in pristine shape going forward. An $8 million cap charge for Asik in 2013-14 and 2014-15 simply isn't going to hurt them.

But Chicago? Holy hell, this is going to hurt. The league calculates the cap charge differently for a team matching the offer sheet, using actual salaries instead of the average. So the Bulls get off easy in the short term; a $5 million cap charge for Asik this year and next should have been in their budget to start.

But then in 2014-15, it jumps up to about $14.1 million. And it's not clear how the Bulls are supposed to handle that, especially given their aversion to the luxury tax and the fact they may be subject to the repeater penalty by then. Between Asik, Derrick Rose, Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah, they have $61.6 million committed and that's without paying Taj Gibson, retaining Luol Deng, or adding any free agent or draft picks.

They're almost certainly a tax team, in other words, and in fact they're likely to be deep into the tax, even if the league's tax level rises a few ducats by then. Which makes the effective cost of keeping Asik that season closer to $30 million than $15 million. And as much as I may admire his defense and rebounding, it's inconceivable that Asik is worth anywhere near $30 million.

Houston will hope Asik can improve on that prognosis by upping his offensive production to slightly less pathetic levels, with the tutelage of Kevin McHale, but even so his defense justifies the contract.

Are there ways around this? Yes, but the medicine is worse than the disease. If in 2014 the Bulls were to use the amnesty clause on Carlos Boozer, who would be on the final year of his deal, that would cut $15 million from their cap number (and likely from their luxury tax bill) that season, but they would still have to pay Boozer, which would still make Asik's effective cost $30 million -- except in that case, it's $30 million and a starting power forward.

Alternatively, Chicago could use the stretch provision on Asik prior to Year 3. That would cost them $5 million each in 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2016-17, possibly saving them from a luxury tax in all three seasons.

But doing so would give them only two years of Asik, while still paying the entirety of the deal, which means they'll have signed him to a two-year deal for $24 million. Which is about as bad as the effective cost of three years, $39 million that we're presenting as the alternative. (You can also count the tax hits in Years 1 and 2, but they're the same in both alternatives so we'll ignore them for now.)

Basically, there's no easy way out for Chicago, which is why they're unlikely to match Houston's offer sheet. They still have Gibson, who is an absolute defensive beast and is extension-eligible this summer -- presumably on far better terms than Asik's deal. Meanwhile, Chicago can shorten its frontcourt rotation to three men -- Boozer, Noah and Gibson -- while using Luol Deng as a small-ball 4 in stretches.

Thus, in all likelihood, Houston is going to end up with Asik. I have to admire their cleverness in pulling this off, but I also have to shake my head that this was allowed under the CBA.

When they get around to the next one, maybe they'll realize that it's unfair to count the tax and cap hit in the season it hits for the matching team, while allowing the offering team to offer only one season at the higher level. Houston drove a truck through this loophole, but in the future requiring four-year deals for Arenas contracts will at least require teams to offer a more genuine maximum deal. Doing so in this case would have made it a four-year, $39 million deal from the Rockets, required nearly $10 million in cap space (and requisite harder decisions from the Rockets), and likely pushed them to a different alternative.


On to the next question: Is he worth it?

That's a bit of an eye-of-the-beholder question. Asik's advanced stats support the subjective viewpoint that he's one of the five or 10 best defensive players in basketball, and defense in general tends to be wildly underrated in the free-agent market (although weirdly, not in the draft). He is also, objectively, a monstrous rebounder, with his 20.1 rebound rate ranking sixth in the NBA last season.

Asik is a terrible offensive player, however, with bad hands, poor touch and a proclivity for illegal screens. Advanced stats seem to indicate that he takes away almost as much with his offense as he does with his defense -- but that overall he's a plus, even compared to the league average.

And that, in the big picture, makes him a second-tier starting center. And you know how much those are worth? About $8 million a year. Houston should know; they just paid nearly the same amount to the departed Samuel Dalembert.

Houston will hope Asik can improve on that prognosis by upping his offensive production to slightly less pathetic levels, with the tutelage of Kevin McHale, but even so his defense justifies the contract.

It also helps that Houston gets somebody under lock and key before re-signing its own free agents. The cap holds for Lee and Goran Dragic are low enough that it behooves the Rockets to use the cap space first, and then rebuild their backcourt.

From there, Houston can go in any number of directions, depending on Dwight Howard's availability and the market for Kyle Lowry. But first they took care of the most urgent need; if the Bulls don't match, the Rockets will have a real starting center this year, and they won't be overpaying for him.

 

So on the Bulls forum they think the Rockets will do a S&T to get Lamb, Lee, or Martin.

 

LOLOLOLOLOL/////// BAHAHAHAHAHAHA

where???? link??

 

Now that's funny.

 

A S&T is basically impossible: http://bbs.clutchfans.com/showpost.php?p=6972528&postcount=640

 

Can you imagine the evil gnome known as David Stern hiding behind some curtain and reading about how Daryl Morey is finding loop holes in the Arenas Rule to keep the Bulls from matching Houston's offer. And just as Asik signs the contract the evil little man (or gnome) jumps out from behind the curtain voids the contract, yelling "basketball reasons"!

 

I wish people would quit saying this. Do you know what a 7 foot tall Chuck Hayes would be like? We'd be talking about a defensive monster somewhere between the level of Ben Wallace and Bill Russell.

 

Yeah I read that and had to shake my head. He knows better.

 

I would take a taller Chuck Hayes every day of the week...I could only hope that Asik becomes a taller Chuck Hayes.

 

http://youtu.be/uLprBCKW2fo

yeah ok...

He would take Chuck's lunch money.

 

I think that 3rd year will scare off the Bulls.

I also think Chicago may threaten to match so they can (they hope) get Houston to give them back something for Asik in trade.

It's either a chess match or a pissing contest. We shall see which it is...

 

Possibly...but Chuck averaged almost 30 min a game in his last year with Houston. There is a HUGE difference when going from 14 min a game to double that amount. Chuck showed he can keep up his defensive ability over his entire court time. Asik still has a lot to prove in that regard. Could he do it? Sure. Has he? Not yet.

 

He's averaged only 13 minutes a game...I would hope he hasn't gotten injured from playing 13 minutes a game.