OFFICIAL: Omer Asik a Houston Rocket (3 year/$25.1 million)

PolarBear · Jul 1, 2012

Carl Herrera said: ↑

Remember when the Rockets had the Tracy McGrady expiring contract and the Yao Ming expiring contract? What star player did we acquire?
Click to expand...

Jared Jeffries ?:grin:

I'm Tom Brady · Jul 1, 2012

Get a load of him stuffing Sergio Llull in the last few seconds of the 4th...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYP6Ns6wZko&feature=related

JayGoogle · Jul 1, 2012

solid said: ↑

I am speechless, without words. The Rockets have done themselves in. Three chances at a center prospect every bit as good as this guy (maybe better than), and they pass. Then pay big. How much more can the fans take?!
Click to expand...

Who are these three guys we passed up on?

Numero.Uno · Jul 1, 2012

JayGoogle said: ↑

Who are these three guys we passed up on?
Click to expand...

I don't think he means three people I think he means three draft picks. The player I assume he is talking about is Zeller.

today · Jul 1, 2012

mau said: ↑

can anyone post this Insider article? It's about how Morey managed to make the offer he made to Asik

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...=nba-how-houston-used-loopholes-woo-omer-asik
Click to expand...

+1

Please and thank you =)

Commodore · Jul 1, 2012

Winning this match game
Rockets GM Daryl Morey uses 'Gilbert Arenas rule' to maximum advantage

In the current CBA, it's known as the Gilbert Arenas rule. In the next one, it might be known as the Daryl Morey rule, because the Houston Rockets GM just drove a Mack truck through every one of the provision's current loopholes in agreeing to a three-year, $24.3 million offer sheet with Chicago restricted free agent Omer Asik.

Let's set aside whether Asik is actually worth $24 million over three years for a moment -- we'll tackle that further down -- and just ponder the evil genius of the structuring of the contract and how it gives the Rockets a huge advantage in prying him from the Bulls.

Under the "Gilbert Arenas" provision of the league's collective bargaining agreement, a player like Asik -- a second-round draft pick coming off his second season -- can be offered only a maximum of the midlevel exception in free agency for the first two seasons, but can be offered any amount up the maximum in years after that.

Houston took advantage of this provision by limiting his offer to three years, rather than the maximum of four, and offering the maximum eligible salary in Year 3. It's so damaging because of how the league assigns the salary cap and luxury tax hits for the respective sides. In Houston's case, the amounts are averaged over the three seasons, requiring the Rockets to have a little over $8 million in cap room to consummate the deal.

No biggie for Houston; they happen to have exactly $8 million lying around if they renounce their rights to Marcus Camby, cut Shaun Livingston, Greg Smith, Courtney Fortson and Diamon Simpson, and either waive Jon Leuer or use the stretch provision on Jon Brockman. Houston could also get there by renouncing its rights to restricted free agent Courtney Lee, but that seems more unlikely.

And looking ahead, the Rockets are still in pristine shape going forward. An $8 million cap charge for Asik in 2013-14 and 2014-15 simply isn't going to hurt them.

But Chicago? Holy hell, this is going to hurt. The league calculates the cap charge differently for a team matching the offer sheet, using actual salaries instead of the average. So the Bulls get off easy in the short term; a $5 million cap charge for Asik this year and next should have been in their budget to start.

But then in 2014-15, it jumps up to about $14.1 million. And it's not clear how the Bulls are supposed to handle that, especially given their aversion to the luxury tax and the fact they may be subject to the repeater penalty by then. Between Asik, Derrick Rose, Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah, they have $61.6 million committed and that's without paying Taj Gibson, retaining Luol Deng, or adding any free agent or draft picks.

They're almost certainly a tax team, in other words, and in fact they're likely to be deep into the tax, even if the league's tax level rises a few ducats by then. Which makes the effective cost of keeping Asik that season closer to $30 million than $15 million. And as much as I may admire his defense and rebounding, it's inconceivable that Asik is worth anywhere near $30 million.

Houston will hope Asik can improve on that prognosis by upping his offensive production to slightly less pathetic levels, with the tutelage of Kevin McHale, but even so his defense justifies the contract.

Are there ways around this? Yes, but the medicine is worse than the disease. If in 2014 the Bulls were to use the amnesty clause on Carlos Boozer, who would be on the final year of his deal, that would cut $15 million from their cap number (and likely from their luxury tax bill) that year, but they would still have to pay Boozer, which would still make Asik's effective cost $30 million -- except in that case, it's $30 million and a starting power forward.

Alternatively, Chicago could use the stretch provision on Asik prior to Year 3. That would cost them $5 million a year in 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2016-17, possibly saving them from a luxury tax in all three seasons.

But doing so only would give them two years of Asik, while still paying the entirety of the deal, which means they'll have signed him to a two-year deal for $24 million. Which is about as bad as the effective cost of three years, $39 million that we're presenting as the alternative. (You can also count the tax hits in years 1 and 2, but they're the same in both alternatives so we'll ignore them for now.)

Basically, there's no easy way out for Chicago, which is why they're unlikely to match Houston's offer sheet. They still have Gibson, who is an absolute defensive beast and is extension-eligible this summer -- presumably on far better terms than Asik's deal. Meanwhile, Chicago can shorten its frontcourt rotation to three men -- Boozer, Noah and Gibson -- while using Luol Deng as a small-ball 4 in stretches.

Thus, in all likelihood, Houston is going to end up with Asik. I have to admire their cleverness in pulling this off, but I also have to shake my head that the CBA allowed this.

When they get around to the next one, maybe they'll realize that it's crap to count the tax and cap hit in the year it hits for the matching team, while allowing the offering team to only offer one year at the higher level. Houston drove a truck through this loophole, but in the future requiring four-year deals for Arenas contracts will at least require teams to offer a more genuine maximum deal. Doing so in this case would have made it a four-year, $39 million deal from the Rockets, required nearly $10 million in cap space (and requisite harder decisions from the Rockets), and likely pushed them to a different alternative.

So congratulations, Houston -- it looks like Chef Linguini is likely all yours.

On to the next question: Is he worth it?

That's a bit of an eye-of-the-beholder question. Asik's advanced stats support the subjective viewpoint that he's one of the five or 10 best defensive players in basketball, and defense in general tends to be wildly underrated in the free-agent market (although weirdly, not in the draft). He is also, objectively, a monstrous rebounder, with his 20.1 Rebound Rate ranking sixth in the NBA last season.

Asik is a terrible offensive player, however, with bad hands, poor touch and a proclivity for illegal screens. Advanced stats seem to indicate that he takes away almost as much with his offense as he does with his defense -- but that overall he's a plus, even compared to the league average.

And that, in the big picture, makes him a second-tier starting center. And you know how much those are worth? About $8 million a year. Houston should know; they just paid nearly the same amount to the departed Samuel Dalembert.

Houston will hope Asik can improve on that prognosis by upping his offensive production to slightly less pathetic levels, with the tutelage of Kevin McHale, but even so his defense justifies the contract.

It also helps that Houston gets somebody under lock and key before re-signing its own free agents. The cap holds for Lee and Goran Dragic are low enough that it behooves the Rockets to use the cap space first, and then rebuild their backcourt.

From there, Houston can go in any number of directions, depending on Dwight Howard's availability and the market for Kyle Lowry. But first they took care of the most urgent need if the Bulls don't match, the Rockets will have a real starting center this year, and they won't be overpaying for him.
Click to expand...

NickKent · Jul 1, 2012

$8 mil/yr for a guy who averaged 3 ppg last year. Are we really this desperate for a big guy?

CXbby · Jul 1, 2012

Numero.Uno said: ↑

I don't think he means three people I think he means three draft picks. The player I assume he is talking about is Zeller.
Click to expand...

In which case we most definitely did not pass on him 3 times. And he will most likely not be as good as Asik. But then people would need to find something new to complain about.

rock34 · Jul 1, 2012

This is why he will become a Rocket (assuming Morey still wants him). The Rockets absolutely have the best package to offer. The only thing delaying this IMHO is the gamesmanship of the Magic GM.

Personally, I think Morey talking with Asik/Gordon has gotten the Magic GM motivated all of a sudden.

In the current CBA, it's known as the Gilbert Arenas rule. In the next one, it might be known as the Daryl Morey rule, because the Houston Rockets GM just drove a Mack truck through every one of the provision's current loopholes in agreeing to a three-year, $24.3 million offer sheet with Chicago restricted free agent Omer Asik.

Let's set aside whether Asik is actually worth $24 million over three years for a moment -- we'll tackle that further down -- and just ponder the evil genius of the structuring of the contract and how it gives the Rockets a huge advantage in prying him from the Bulls.

Under the "Gilbert Arenas" provision of the league's collective bargaining agreement, a player like Asik -- a second-round draft pick coming off his second season -- can be offered only a maximum of the midlevel exception in free agency for the first two seasons, but can be offered any amount up the maximum in years after that.

Houston took advantage of this provision by limiting his offer to three years, rather than the maximum of four, and offering the maximum eligible salary in Year 3.

Rockets GM Daryl Morey makes things tough for Chicago by offering over $14 million in the third year of the Asik deal.It's so damaging because of how the league assigns the salary cap and luxury tax hits for the respective sides. In Houston's case, the amounts are averaged over the three seasons, requiring the Rockets to have a little over $8 million in cap room to consummate the deal.

No biggie for Houston; they happen to have exactly $8 million lying around if they renounce their rights to Marcus Camby, cut Shaun Livingston, Greg Smith, Courtney Fortson and Diamon Simpson, and either waive Jon Leuer or use the stretch provision on Jon Brockman. Houston could also get there by renouncing its rights to restricted free agent Courtney Lee, but that seems more unlikely.

And looking ahead, the Rockets are still in pristine shape going forward. An $8 million cap charge for Asik in 2013-14 and 2014-15 simply isn't going to hurt them.

But Chicago? Holy hell, this is going to hurt. The league calculates the cap charge differently for a team matching the offer sheet, using actual salaries instead of the average. So the Bulls get off easy in the short term; a $5 million cap charge for Asik this year and next should have been in their budget to start.

But then in 2014-15, it jumps up to about $14.1 million. And it's not clear how the Bulls are supposed to handle that, especially given their aversion to the luxury tax and the fact they may be subject to the repeater penalty by then. Between Asik, Derrick Rose, Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah, they have $61.6 million committed and that's without paying Taj Gibson, retaining Luol Deng, or adding any free agent or draft picks.

They're almost certainly a tax team, in other words, and in fact they're likely to be deep into the tax, even if the league's tax level rises a few ducats by then. Which makes the effective cost of keeping Asik that season closer to $30 million than $15 million. And as much as I may admire his defense and rebounding, it's inconceivable that Asik is worth anywhere near $30 million.

Houston will hope Asik can improve on that prognosis by upping his offensive production to slightly less pathetic levels, with the tutelage of Kevin McHale, but even so his defense justifies the contract.

Are there ways around this? Yes, but the medicine is worse than the disease. If in 2014 the Bulls were to use the amnesty clause on Carlos Boozer, who would be on the final year of his deal, that would cut $15 million from their cap number (and likely from their luxury tax bill) that year, but they would still have to pay Boozer, which would still make Asik's effective cost $30 million -- except in that case, it's $30 million and a starting power forward.

Alternatively, Chicago could use the stretch provision on Asik prior to Year 3. That would cost them $5 million a year in 2014-15, 2015-16, and 2016-17, possibly saving them from a luxury tax in all three seasons.

But doing so only would give them two years of Asik, while still paying the entirety of the deal, which means they'll have signed him to a two-year deal for $24 million. Which is about as bad as the effective cost of three years, $39 million that we're presenting as the alternative. (You can also count the tax hits in years 1 and 2, but they're the same in both alternatives so we'll ignore them for now.)

Basically, there's no easy way out for Chicago, which is why they're unlikely to match Houston's offer sheet. They still have Gibson, who is an absolute defensive beast and is extension-eligible this summer -- presumably on far better terms than Asik's deal. Meanwhile, Chicago can shorten its frontcourt rotation to three men -- Boozer, Noah and Gibson -- while using Luol Deng as a small-ball 4 in stretches.

Thus, in all likelihood, Houston is going to end up with Asik. I have to admire their cleverness in pulling this off, but I also have to shake my head that the CBA allowed this.

When they get around to the next one, maybe they'll realize that it's crap to count the tax and cap hit in the year it hits for the matching team, while allowing the offering team to only offer one year at the higher level. Houston drove a truck through this loophole, but in the future requiring four-year deals for Arenas contracts will at least require teams to offer a more genuine maximum deal. Doing so in this case would have made it a four-year, $39 million deal from the Rockets, required nearly $10 million in cap space (and requisite harder decisions from the Rockets), and likely pushed them to a different alternative.

So congratulations, Houston -- it looks like Chef Linguini is likely all yours.

On to the next question: Is he worth it?

That's a bit of an eye-of-the-beholder question. Asik's advanced stats support the subjective viewpoint that he's one of the five or 10 best defensive players in basketball, and defense in general tends to be wildly underrated in the free-agent market (although weirdly, not in the draft). He is also, objectively, a monstrous rebounder, with his 20.1 Rebound Rate ranking sixth in the NBA last season.

Asik is a terrible offensive player, however, with bad hands, poor touch and a proclivity for illegal screens. Advanced stats seem to indicate that he takes away almost as much with his offense as he does with his defense -- but that overall he's a plus, even compared to the league average.

And that, in the big picture, makes him a second-tier starting center. And you know how much those are worth? About $8 million a year. Houston should know; they just paid nearly the same amount to the departed Samuel Dalembert.

Houston will hope Asik can improve on that prognosis by upping his offensive production to slightly less pathetic levels, with the tutelage of Kevin McHale, but even so his defense justifies the contract.

It also helps that Houston gets somebody under lock and key before re-signing its own free agents. The cap holds for Lee and Goran Dragic are low enough that it behooves the Rockets to use the cap space first, and then rebuild their backcourt.

From there, Houston can go in any number of directions, depending on Dwight Howard's availability and the market for Kyle Lowry. But first they took care of the most urgent need if the Bulls don't match, the Rockets will have a real starting center this year, and they won't be overpaying for him.
Click to expand...

rock34 · Jul 1, 2012

for those who wanted the insider report i posted it.

rocketsmetalspd · Jul 1, 2012

Ricksmith said: ↑

3 days from July 11th, so their deadline is the 14th.
Click to expand...

Opps my bad. Yes once signed July 11th the Bulls have 3 days to match which will be July 14th.

solid · Jul 1, 2012

JayGoogle said: ↑

Who are these three guys we passed up on?
Click to expand...

Draft positions 12, 16, 18.

amaru · Jul 1, 2012

NickKent said: ↑

$8 mil/yr for a guy who averaged 3 ppg last year. Are we really this desperate for a big guy?
Click to expand...

yes..

Ricksmith · Jul 1, 2012

Excellent article from Hollinger. Centers come at a premium, and we got a pretty good deal on a defensive big.

RocketsRed14 · Jul 1, 2012

solid said: ↑

I am speechless, without words. The Rockets have done themselves in. Three chances at a center prospect every bit as good as this guy (maybe better than), and they pass. Then pay big. How much more can the fans take?!
Click to expand...

They did themselves in by going bpa?

PolarBear · Jul 1, 2012

solid said: ↑

Draft positions 12, 16, 18.
Click to expand...

The point was we had 3 draft choices to draft a C versus more PFs.

Zeller was available at 12 & 16.
Fab Melo was available at 18, after Zeller was snagged at 17.

Asik at a little over $5M won't be bad for 2 years.
Maybe we can trade him in year 3, as he certainly won't be worth $14.1M...

1JumpShot · Jul 1, 2012

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/uLprBCKW2fo" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

solid · Jul 1, 2012

The Cat said: ↑

This brought to you by the same poster that guaranteed a Texans' home playoff defeat at the hands of the Bengals...
Click to expand...

Oh please, "guaranteed?" Three straight losses was no way to enter into the playoffs, and I bet you can't find one Hall of Fame coach that recommended that approach, ever. The Texans over celebrated the Division Title and were darn fortunate to win their first playoff game.

Now what was this thread about?

So you are implying that this was a brilliant move? Please tell us why.

DonnyMost · Jul 1, 2012

Commodore said: ↑

Winning this match game
Rockets GM Daryl Morey uses 'Gilbert Arenas rule' to maximum advantage

Click to expand...

Great article.

Chicago must respect Morey's gangsta.

iconoclastic · Jul 1, 2012

I'd like to see Asik and Camby playing together as Twin Towers.

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OFFICIAL: Omer Asik a Houston Rocket (3 year/$25.1 million)

3-years, $25.1 million deal to Omer Asik -- is this a good deal for the Rockets?

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OFFICIAL: Omer Asik a Houston Rocket (3 year/$25.1 million)

3-years, $25.1 million deal to Omer Asik -- is this a good deal for the Rockets?

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