NHC forecasting a hurricane passing to the south of us in a couple days or so. Stay tuned. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012 DEBBY IS GRADUALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. SHIP ZCDJ2 LOCATED ABOUT 80 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AND NEAR NOAA BUOY 42003 REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1001.6 MB AND 38 KT WINDS AT 24/00Z. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED TO BE 998 MB. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 23/2020Z INDICATED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH IS EQUAL TO ABOUT 49 KT SURFACE WINDS. CONVECTION WAS SOMEWHAT MEAGER AT THAT...BUT SINCE THEN HAS INCREASED RATHER MARKEDLY IN THAT AREA. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A SOLID 45 KT. DEBBY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICES HAVE BEEN OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS ABOUT A MEAN CENTER OF ROTATION OF A LARGER GYRE...AND THE LOCATION OF THE LARGER STATIONARY GYRE IS THE ADVISORY POSITION. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO SHOULD BE SLOWLY POLEWARD. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. HAS A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS CREATING DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS INCREASED RIDGING IS REFLECTED BY 20-40 METER 500 MB HEIGHT RISES AT 00Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS THE CAROLINA COASTS. THIS BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY 36-48 HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AFTER THAT. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS...SUPPORTS THE GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION SCENARIO. THE MAIN REASON THAT THE GFS MOVES DEBBY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS DUE TO IT HAVING A WEAKER AND MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW STORM DEPICTED IN THE MODEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEEPER AND MORE ROBUST WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEPICTED IN THE ECMWF...UKMET... NOGAPS MODELS SEEMS A MORE REASONABLE SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WEAKER WIND SHEAR BY 36-48 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH ALLOWS DEBBY TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A 200 MB RIDGE AXIS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH IS FORECASTING A HURRICANE CENTRAL PRESSURE BY 96 HOURS...AND IS ABOVE THE GFS-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SINCE THAT OUTPUT LIKELY DOES NOT REPRESENT THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT DEBBY WILL ENCOUNTER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND BRINGS DEBBY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS.
By tomorrow evening we should have a much better idea of where she's going. At this point it's still possible that it could go anywhere from South Texas to Florida. Crazy. I expect the NHC's cone to shift quite a bit over the next 48 hours.
I'm supposed to float the San Marcos river next weekend @ Don's Fish Camp! Stay away! I'd rather not have rain....that day.
Oh man. Models have shifted quite a bit north. Further north than even NHC's new forecast shows. This may head to New Orleans eastward to Florida after all.
8 AM HWRF run wants to bring it right to our doorstep. Huge difference in these models, though. I don't feel like I know anything more this morning than I did last night.
The new forecast isn't reflecting what you're saying, Harrisment. I assume that the models flip flopped. It's going to brush New Orleans then head directly to Galveston as of now as a hurricane. :/ There will be a lot of chances for the forecast to change though but the areas in drought will receive much needed rain in its the path which is good!
The forecast is weak...even Masters said that last night. The track the NHC is forecasting is their best bet...but there's very little confidence in that. Look at the models as of this morning...one to TX..one to NOLA...two to Florida. It's barely moving at all right now...it was absolutely stationary as of 10 pm last night. But on the Chronicle's front page right now, it makes reference to Berger "keeping an eye" on the storm.
http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/0...now-appears-less-likely-to-move-toward-texas/ Good morning. Tropical Storm Debby remains a slowly moving and strengthening storm in the Gulf of Mexico, with its winds now increased to 60 mph. Having been fed with data collected on Saturday afternoon by aircraft reconnaissance, the hurricane track models have made a substantial change overnight, with the very much muddled consensus now moving away from the south-central Texas coast to the northern Gulf coast. The official forecast understates the shift in the models, most of which are now bringing Debby to the northern Gulf coast. (Here’s the latest European model, for example, which yesterday brought Debby into Texas near Matagorda Bay. It now targets central Louisiana). In such a scenario the system would miss Texas entirely. The big question is whether this is an “odd” run of the models, and they get back to a western track later today, or whether they’re onto something. It’s more likely they’re onto something now that the models are working with better data. We’ll know for sure about 2 p.m. this afternoon when the models confirm whether the northward shift is a trend or an anomaly. If this is the case the biggest threat from this system is probably rainfall. First of all there’s an incredible amount of moisture moving with Debby, and second, it’s all to the east of the storm’s center of circulation. Now consider the possibility that this storm may slowly move north and then northwest toward the Louisiana coast. And recall that New Orleans is built as much below as above sea level. Unlike Hurricane Katrina, which was primarily a storm surge event, Debby could pose an inland flooding event. In this case very intense and prolonged rainfall could overwhelm the city’s system of pumping stations. Right now the heaviest rains are forecast to fall offshore, but if Debby makes the move into central Louisiana it will cause substantial problems for the state if those 10 to 15 inches of rain move over the southeastern part of the state. So here’s where we are: Debby is strengthening, and some further strengthening is likely. However the odds of a more pronounced westward turn toward Texas in the next day or two are decreasing. Nevertheless the forecast track is highly uncertain, with everywhere from Texas to Florida still in play for a landfall. Sometimes track forecasting for a storm is easy. Sometimes, when the steering currents are weak, it’s very difficult. That’s the situation we’re in with Debby.
WTF.... We have a Galveston trip this weekend. This is looking worse and worse. Goddamnit. Even if it doesn't make a landfall near Galveston, the rain will be there which is definitely not what I need.
don't just look at the NHC forecast...it appears this will trend more to the north towards Louisiana. we'll keep an eye on it, though. this is me smiling and keeping one eye on it.
All I really hope though is that this thing can make landfall and be out of the Gulf area by Friday. I thought for sure that even if it hit near Galveston or in Texas, it would surely be inland by Friday.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2131 Tropical storm warnings are flying from Alabama to the Panhandle of Florida and along much of Southeast Louisiana coast, as Tropical Storm Debby inches to the north at 2 mph. The heaviest rains of Debby have moved ashore along much of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with up to two inches of radar-estimated rainfall in the Apalachicola, Florida area so far. Several buoys to the north and east of the center of Debby are receiving tropical storm-force winds, including SGOF1 (56 mph, gusting to 68 mph at 9 am EDT) and buoy 42022, 100 miles off the coast from Tampa (42 mph sustained winds at 7am EDT.) Our Wundermap for the surrounding ocean areas shows a large region of 25 - 45 mph winds off the Southeast Louisiana coast. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft flying through Debby at 5,000 feet found an area of 60 mph surface winds about 100 miles south-southwest of Apalachicola, Florida at 7am EDT. Visible satellite loops show the classic signature of a medium-strength tropical storm undergoing substantial wind shear. The heavy thunderstorms of Debby are all on the east and north sides. Upper-level winds out of the southwest creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear that is driving dry air to the southwest of the storm into Debby's core. This dry air can be seen on Water vapor satellite loops. However, Debby is steadily overcoming this dry air and wind shear, and the storm has increased in organization, size, and in intensity this morning. Ocean temperatures are about 28.5°C (83°F) in the Central Gulf of Mexico, which is about 1°F above average, but these waters do not extend to great depth, which will limit how strong Debby can get. Debby's slow motion will make rainfall the primary threat from the storm, with up to 10 inches likely in some regions along the coast from Southeast Louisiana to Pensacola, Florida. Unfortunately, this part of the coast is not under drought, and does not need the rain. Farther to the east, along the rest of the Gulf Coast of Florida, moderate to severe drought prevails, and flooding from Debby will be less of an issue. The slow motion of Debby will also slow down intensification of the storm, since its winds are stirring up cooler waters from the depths to the surface that then cool down the storm. Debby's close proximity to land places a portion of its circulation over land, which will also tend to slow down intensification. Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. The latest SHIPS model forecast gives Debby a 19% chance of undergoing rapid intensification--a 30 mph increase of winds in 24 hours. The 8 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving Debby a 29% chance of becoming a hurricane by early Tuesday morning. Given the current increasing trends in Debby's organization and intensity, these odds should probably be closer to 50%. Steering currents for Debby are very weak, resulting in an unusually large spread in the model forecasts for where the storm might go. Take your pick from the various model solutions: Debby could make landfall anywhere from South Texas to Tampa Bay. The official NHC track west towards Texas should definitely not be viewed as gospel.
