Forecast Model Discussion: All over the place. http://stormw.wordpress.com/ Factors discussed in cliff notes, if you don't wanna click the link: I know everyone is interested on where any development will go. To be honest, it’s a toss up between models. At this point in time, one cannot really forecast a track accurately, as we are not at that stage yet. Remember, we do not even have a designated INVEST yet, so the computer models do not really have a well defined closed LLC to track. The scenarios are as follows at the moment. The GFS takes a weak storm across S. Florida The ECMWF takes a compact Hurricane into the Florida Big Bend Region The CMC (yikes) takes a major Hurricane to the Galveston area The UKMET takes a Tropical Storm toward the Texas/Mexico border. Should development occur, forecast motion is going to depend on 2 variables, actually 3…the strength of the system, whether or not an upcoming trof is deep enough to pull whatever may be out there toward FL., or whether or not the ridge forecast over TX. becomes the dominant feature and becomes positioned as such to kick it west. Again, these questions can be more accurately answered once we get further into the forecast period over the next 4-5 days. I am however inclined to rule out the UKMET solution, as it is initiating development too far west I believe, based on current analysis.
I would trust a Canadian computer model that predicts hockey scores or one that tracks moose movement, not really tropical weather.
Models are everywhere with this thing GFS: Tampa, FL NAM: Southwest LA/SE Texas CMC: TX/LA to Galveston area NGPS: Mobile/Pensacola area UKMET: Brownsville, TX/Matagorda area ECMWF: Florida Panhandle With this much uncertainty, this thing could go anywhere. There isn't even a defined low for the NHC to put into the models to get a more consistent run. Just a wait and see situation
*THAT'S WHAT SHE SAID :grin:* FINE. I'll take the Bath Salts and ask someone to record me and post the video, per LongHorn's request! If you live in Katy, evacuate before I take the first one.
You went there again! Anyways, now an invest... ECMWF is now showing a westward track which is a huge change from the previous run.
If you believe the local guys, they are saying(last I saw) that the high positioned over Texas wont allow that to get anywhere near us.
If it grows into a large hurricane and keeps moving this slow it would bust through that high very easily. We're on the southern end of high pressure, but still nobody knows what this thing will do. Better info. will be available tomorrow after the plane flies through it. Most all models have gone N/NW/West now though, surprisingly. I don't even wanna think about a 'cane this year after our drought. So many dead trees everywhere just waiting to fall. Total mess, major power outages for weeks...no thanks.
don't forget about 100+ degree temps. a good blob of red... I also notice the storms down in S Texas. Hopefully, they will come this way! Enjoyed the rain past two days.
It's damn near impossible for anything that develops in the Gulf to be a fish storm. Chris is a fish storm. With such weak steering currents in the Gulf all bets are off. This could go anywhere...IF it develops.
This is the truth. Last week a nasty storm rolled through Spring/Woodlands and the results looked like nothing short of a Cat. 3 hurricane near my home. We lost power for a day and downed trees were everywhere (I just dropped serious cash getting the ones in my yard removed today). Most were big, old trees that died last summer and they did plenty of damage. A real hurricane would bring down tens of thousands of these dead trees in the Houston area.
The last two runs of the "euro" continue to show a shift westward. The latest has landfall somewhere along the south Texas coast. As some of you know the euro is generally considered the best model when it comes to tracking these things, so if it says something will happen 2 runs in a row then you'd better take note. Looking at the latest satellite pics it appears that the circulation is much more defined now and you can see it just north of the tip of the Yucatan. I would expect this to become at least a tropical depression soon. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical500mbSLP168.gif http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/96L/flash-swir-long.html
