Names for the 2012 Season: Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie William Already have Tropical Storm Alberto formed in the Atlantic. It's not much of a storm though.
Should we evacuate Katy now? That's a good one that I always forget about. Any others? For some reason I really liked Storm Pulse.
I'm reluctant to post this but for several days the computer models have been hinting at a possible tropical system forming in the Bay of Campeche. If a model shows development it's usually too close to the Mexican coast to cause us any trouble but the CMC model aka Canadian is showing this down the road. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012061612&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation This is a bit far off for a computer model to accurately predict but for you weather junkies it's something to keep you busy this weekend.
And for good reason, models that far out are so impossible to predict that it does no one any good to hear about them. Quit storm mongering.
I didn't post that for just anyone. There are some people here that have an interest in this sort of thing and that is who I posted this for and if you don't like that then get over it. Edit: Here's something official. FXUS64 KHGX 162330 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 630 PM CDT SAT JUN 16 2012 LATE WEEK FORECAST FOR THE EVOLVING BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW IS STILL ON PER ALL MODELS...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND CANADIAN RUNS BEING THE AGGRESSORS OF TAKING THIS CLOSED-OFF LOW/CIRCULATION RIGHT UP THE GULLY AND IMPACTING OUR AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. NHC HAS DOWNPLAYED THESE LATEST RUNS AS (THE GFS FOR INSTANCE) ARE SO DEVIANT FROM THE EARLIER 06Z RUN OF TAKING THIS SYSTEM TO THE UPPER MEXICO COAST BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS MORE CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THIS BAY OF CAMPECHE CIRCULATION MORE BROAD AND DIFFUSE. SO...A WAIT AND SEE...BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY BECOMING A SITUATION WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO NEXT WEEK. 31
For several days models have been picking up on a system developing either in the Bay of Campeche or SE Gulf and it looks like we're finally narrowing down what is possibly going to happen. It appears that a system will eventually form in the Central Gulf and probably track NE towards Florida, but even now its still way early to tell what will actually happen if/when this thing gets going. Stay tuned... Btw, here's the latest discussion on the situation. GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NW TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST COVERING ALL BUT THE FAR NE GULF. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 92W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER S ALABAMA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH TO OVER THE FAR NE GULF. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E GULF IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AS A NEW LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER YUCATAN TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NE TO THE E GULF SUN AND MON.
My prediction is that high pressure systems will keep everything away from us again this summer. It would be nice if we caught the clean side of this thing and got a few inches of rain out of it. Probably won't happen though.
I'm pleasantly surprised that we've gotten only one really good hot spell so far. Normally we would've spent a decent amount of time in the 90s already.
Hasn't felt like it to me. I just remember a short span of it getting in the high/mid-90s that sucked. The rest of the time it has been 90 or below with relatively low humidity. Been kinda nice. http://www.weather.com/weather/monthly/77002?month=-1 April wasn't all that harsh, IIRC, either.
it took a jump in late May to the 90s and stayed there pretty consistently since. It hasn't always felt that hot though
Eric Berger is the one who is storm mongering, not Xenon. http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/06/around-the-tropics-tracking-chris-and-that-gulf-disturbance/ Yeahhhhhhh.
