Blazers Edge: Why Kyle Lowry May Become a Blazer on Draft Night

I would love this.

 

That's about fair for market value, though.

 

I wonder what rank Kyle Lowry would be in a mock draft if he was included in this draft pool.

 

Or, package this + #16 to move up a couple of spots.

 

There are 3 things that need to occur for the Rockets to get Drummond.

1) The top 5 needs to be Davis, Robinson, Barnes, Beal and Gilchrist. Now I see these guys going in the top 5 in no particular order so I don't see this as a problem.

2) Portland really likes Lowry. This is key. If Portland views him as a great fit next to Aldridge then I can see us swapping 1st rounders with Portland and giving them Lowry. If need be we could take back some salary if aquiring Lowry puts them over.

3) Rockets brass are keen on Drummond's future.

Now if all three of these conditions are meant, then Drummond's a Rocket with the 6th pick. Now what would be interesting would be what we do with the 11th pick, Martin and Scola. I would love for Waiters to be avaialble at 11. This would give us a young wing with the potential for an all around offensive game.

If I can get to this point, then I look at Minnesota and there pick at 18. If the reports of them coveting Martin are true then after I pick Waiters, I would turn around and trade Martin for the 18th pick and draft Ross if he's still there (I wouldn't count on it) but if he's gone then I'm taking Miller. Miller has the all around scoring potential I covet, but he also comes with a prior ACL procedure. Ross comes in clean but may never develop a good to the basket game.

This would set the Rockets up nicely for the future. Drummond and Motiejunas could be a great pairing down low and Waiters and Miller give us 2 guys with the chance of being all around wing scorers. Dragic would still be around to run the show, and then we still have Lee, Parsons, Budinger, Morris and Patterson to round out the roster and give us great depth moving forward.

 

It doesn't need to be Drummond though. ^

IMHO, this draft is six players and getting any of them is a win especially for Lowry who is replaceable.

 

Also dont forget that its a possibility they like Dragic much better. If they are that much higher on Dragic, and they dont mind breaking the bank, then they might just take their chances at trying to get Dragic in free agency on July 11th.

Plus, if Portland waits until July 11th to make a deal for Lowry, they have much better leverage against the Rockets in a trade for Lowry since they will be forced to take a deal or let Dragic walk. I just dont see a Portland/Lowry deal getting done on draft day. So many reasons for the negotiations to get off track.

Key, will be getting another team involved in trade talks for Lowry first to leverage against Portland. If Portland feels like Houston is going to be able to move Lowry to X team, and now sign Dragic to X amount, then they might be forced to make an offer now to secure a deal involving Lowry.

Still if they really are deadset on Dragic, they might just be willing to gamble on him in free agency to begin with.

 

I would do that deal in an instant. I'd almost be as excited about the second rounders - there's some intriguing guys at 40/41.

 

According to who? You realize that market value is a fairly subjective matter.

 

I think that's the main point on why we will do this deal.

 

No kidding Ray Allen only got a number 5 pick.

DD

 

So would we not draft Beal, Barnes, Robinson, or Gilchrest if they dropped to 6 and Drummond was taken?

 

Fixed.

 

Players taken #6 in the past ten years:

2011 - Jan Vesely
2010 - Ekpe Udoh
2009 - Jonny Flynn
2008 - Danillo Gallinari
2007 - Yi Jianlian
2006 - Brandon Roy
2005 - Martell Webster
2004 - Josh Childress
2003 - Chris Kaman
2002 - Dajuan Wagner

Take the average of all those players, and I'm not giving Kyle Lowry up for that in a straight up trade. Sure as hell not adding one of my picks to "move up" to #6.

The mantra in the NBA is that the talent level falls off DRAMATICALLY after the top 5. Morey knows this and also knows that the value of a #6 pick should not just be a little less, but rather a LOT less than a #5 pick. Hell, you can argue that Seattle if they had kept Ray Allen to pair with Durant would have been much better off than drafting Jeff Green with the pick they received for him. That's not a fair example.

This year may be different than most in that the talent level does not drop off after #5 but rather after #1, and then again after #3 (once MKG and Robinson go off the board). To me, picks 4-14 have little separating them, and Hollinger agrees with this (go read the Hollinger thread). I'm not moving Kyle Lowry just to move to #6, and I sure as hell ain't doing it while packaging #16. DD and the Kyle haters have a biased frame of reference. He is not yet an all-star, but he is a borderline all-star who should have a similar value to other guys who haven't yet made the ASG like Eric Gordon. He will be 26 years old for the majority of the next season. He makes just under 6M a year (compare that to fellow almost-allstar Rudy Gay who makes 3x as much). Plenty of teams would kill to have Kyle. Just ask the Lakers. He's worth more than this.

 

Lowry will be trade draft night, Morey should know we will be in a lose-lose situation come July 11th and the best opp to get rid of one of our PG's for something of value is on draft night.

 

Also, Drummond to me really seems similar to DeAndre Jordan. Same athleticism, same limitations as far as shooting and mental acumen. You could make the argument now that Jordan in his draft would be the 6th most valuable player taken. So I don't have a problem with him either way. If we take him I'll get on the bandwagon, if we don't I'll stay off it.

 

dude. you can look at "pick number" historically. some FO's ie Minny are just plain screwed up. plus no two teams have exactly the same draft board for top 6.

 

Ok then. Do the same for the #7 pick the past ten years. Do it for the #8 pick. #9. And so on and so forth. 6 might be particularly bad, but the others ones ain't blowin your socks off either. My point is this: Lowry's value is HIGHER than this, and until we get to that #6 pick and there is a guy staring the Rockets FO in the face that they honestly believe has superstar potential, they shouldn't trade Lowry straight up for it. If Battier straight up netted Rudy Gay, then we could possibly do the same, but Lowry is better than Battier, and whoever we pick at 6 needs to be at least as good as Gay.

And if you wanted to show the #5 pick of the past ten years I guarantee you it would be better than that of any of the ones below it. Just to follow up on my point that the top 5 picks should be worth a LOT more than anything below them.

 

Since 2000 here are a list of players you could have got with pick 6 - Greg Monroe, Steph Curry, Brandon Jennings, Gallinari, Lopez, Hibbert, Noah, Brandon Roy, Rudy Gay, Bynum, Deng, Iggy, Jefferson, Kaman, Amare, Caron Butler, Joe Johnson.

 

Great points. Can't agree more. Repped.