It's safe to say Drummond will not be an instant contributor in the pros. The most favorable comparison I can make is to Bynum. Both will enter the league very raw. Bynum barely saw the floor his rookie year, then followed it up in his second year by getting more pt and improving on his numbers then by his 3rd season he was beginning to show what kind of player he would become. I believe it will be the same for Drummond. Now he may get more time in his rookie year then Bynum because chances are he will go to a team that was worse off then that Laker team and will need him on the floor more. Now I wouldn't expect much from Drummond in year 1, but after that by year two we should see signs and by year three we should see what kind of player he could be.
A couple things that Cousins didn't have coming out of college was (1) production issue, and (2) a skill-level issue. The guy flat out beasted college competition as a freshmen, putting up 15 pts and 10 rebounds in less than 24 mpg for an elite level team. Cousins also had a refined post game and even a midrange J coming out of college. Drummond, on the other hand, was much worse in terms of personal stats, team performance and the "raw-ness" of his game.
I just think people are reaching with the FT%. Is there some study that correlates FT% to prospect potential I'm missing? Especially among big men? I'm not saying hitting FT isn't important. And is likely a good indicator of the type of shooter a player generally is. But it's not the be all-end all. As you noted Shaq was a horrible FT shooter over a much bigger sample size. Dwight shot under 50% last year. Lebron has had documented FT issues in the 4th quarter. Again, clearly important, but I find it hard to believe that there'd be a lot of GMs out there saying, "What, this kid only shot 30% from the line, that's it, he's no longer a lottery pick" And yes, I do think he could come in a be a 50% FT immediately. Just as he could come in and shoot 10%. We're talking about 88 ft's sample size. I mean Chuck Hayes shot 37% from the FT line one year - but it was a small sample size. Then he improved. Look at the worst FT shooters of all time, and they are all "bigs". Hey, guess what! Thomas Robinson shot 39% from the line his freshman year but improved thereafter. John Henson shot 44%, 48% and 51%. Pretty bad, eh? Is he now a late first round pick? Of course not. Moultrie shot 54% his freshman year. Fab Melo shot 36% his freshman year. Royce White shot 50%. Tristan Thompson shot 48% in college. Hakeem shot 53% his junior year. Mutombo shot 48% his freshman year. Heck, LaMarcus Aldridge, who is a deadly turn around 18 foot post player, only shot 65% from the line in college. Oh yeah, he's shot over 72% every year in the pro's, and 81% last year. Are all the above better than 30% and in some cases way better? Sure. But still not good. Moreover, many of the historical guys got better when they entered the league. Older, more practice, whatever. Am I overvaluing Drummond? Almost certainly. But from a Rockets perspective, it's the type of move I'd want them to pursue. Granted, if they moved up and took Beal or MKG or Robinson that's fine too. But if they move up to 6 as an example only to take a flyer on a Meyers Leonard type, I'll be in disbelief. Absolutely. And I'd freaking love to have Cousins right now. But to be fair, for all his skill, Drummond has proven to be a better college defender, and while he clearly doesn't have Cousins offensive game yet, Cousins offensive game is a 45% shooting big man. After shooting 43% his rookie year. If he stays under 50% going forward you'll have to question his effectiveness, despite a seemingly prolific offensive game. I just think Drummond would be a VERY solid fit next to Scola, and with Dragic running point, Parsons at the SF and Martin or Lee at the shooting
I would say Jones. Drummond lacks offensive skills and we all know those can be developed. Jones lacks aggressiveness and a desire to bang as a PF. Those traits may be able to be developed, but I don't know. Also Jones is 2 years older. Drummond is still 18.
Drummond plays defense so PJIII. I expect Drummond to be a defensive center in the NBA that provides little to no offense. His big Achilles heal to me is FT%. If he get his FT% up to suck level, he'll be a fine defensive center and worthy of the 6th pick.
Again, not following the focus on his FT% for all of his 88 career FTs?? You're saying you think he will be a defensive center with limited offensive game, but only if he gets his FT% up will he be that fine defensive center? Apparently I've turned into the biggest Drummond fan on this board through this thread (which was never my intention), but I actually think his offensive game is undervalued in the sense that I think he can develop Bynum like post moves and jumpshot from 15 feet out... it will just take time.
At 21 years old the FT% would be worrisome. At 18 it does not worry me at all. It just means he has not had time to take 50,000 free throws in practice. And he does have a fairly effective jumper out at 10-12 feet from the basket. The most important thing to me is that the basketball looks comfortable in his hands. Basic offensive skills are probably one of the easiest improvements a young player can make. It is coaching and repetition.
I'll say Jones the third, because I think his offensive skills maybe a little better than Drummond's defense skills, but not by much. I feel like Jones will be less of project coming in. The tail off comes with their weaknesses ... Jones's motor and ability to play SF or PF versus Drummond's lack of proficient offensive skills. I just feel like Drummond's not going to be a beast on defense, either for a season or two.
Kobe admitted he was wrong. He's a competitor, but it isn't his job to run the team. Management drafted Bynum as a long-term project and it paid off. Let's not talk about turmoil when they hoisted up back-to-back trophies with both guys still on the roster. They competed and developed a prospect simultaneously. End of story. This is ridiculous. Bynum has a huge contract currently. The $65 million contract he got years ago didn't destroy his motivation, but an $80 million one will? I don't like his attitude either, but but he's no bust.
