Changing of the guard? Lots of elite teams will regress next year

As a championship contender, Boston is done.

Lakers are done unless they make a dynamic trade. The contracts of Kobe (2yrs/$58MM) & Pau (2yrs/$38MM) are millstones around their neck and is why Pau has limited trade value. The very negative Mike Brown/Andrew Bynum chemistry can't be ignored.

Spurs aren't done.

Miami's best team with the "Big 3" could end up being last year's. But they will remain a title-contender the next 4 seasons if LeBron doesn't exercise his early-termination option.

Mavs are done unless D-Will or Howard go there, which remains very possible.

Bulls are not contenders next season and their future depends on Rose returning to form.

The Pacers have to figure out how to take another couple of steps. They have to trade Danny Granger and get a better leading offensive player. IMO, they would have been a first-round casualty again if the Magic hadn't imploded. They aren't really close.

Memphis doesn't have enough to win a championship as is and I can't figure out how they would improve by trading a key piece (like Rudy Gay).

As long as Vinny coaches the Clippers, they won't win a championship. Put that in the bank.

With D-Will, Nash (via SnT) and Howard still floating out there, some teams have a good chance at the promised land.

 

They are no longer title favorites, but the Lakers and Spurs are definitely not "done" - and a contributing draft pick or signee could revitalize them quickly.

The West is going to be a free for all in the near future - OKC has established themselves as top dogs, SAS, LAC, MEM, and LAL will hang around, but Phoenix is the only franchise I'm stone cold certain will be a doormat. Provided they snatch Williams, DAL isn't going away. NO and POR are both about to reload in scary quick fashion. Sac is about to add another high lottery piece. DEN has a little something going. MIN is looming. GSW are being aggressive in their activity and have two picks. Utah has enough to be a threat (no first rounder).

If the Rockets want to get in the mix, they can't keep rely on Motiejunas to be the difference. They're in dire need of bold moves, because the competition for playoff seeds is going to be fierce.

Celtics definitely don't look like they're going to be much more than a lower seed, but if KG returns and they land someone (2 first rounders) they aren't going to end up in the lottery. Not in the East.

Orlando, however, is finished. That roster is disgusting.

Atlanta's at a crossroads. They're simply not good enough to truly contend, and they've got a lot of expensive pieces.

Philly's interesting and starting to look deep.

NY's flawed so long as Melo's getting his way, Amare's living on borrowed time, and they've got to choose between retaining Lin or adding help (supposedly want Ray Allen). But have bigs, will travel - so long as Amare can suit up and they've got Chandler (and Harrellson is a nice reserve), they're a playoff team.

Chicago losing Rose for at least half of next season is a killer...and then there's the even more troubling notion that he might not be fully himself for longer. Revisiting Deng + Noah for Howard + Turk may be worth consideration.

Pacers almost have it together...but were they one (post)season wonders that went on a hot streak at the right time? They weren't THAT good in the regular season - took care of business against patsies, but had a poor record against winning teams. Hibbert represents that team well: potential and flashes of dominance, but doesn't assert himself just as often.

Miami would be unstoppable if they could land a competent center. If anyone out there should be purchasing second round picks, it's them. If they were to strike gold on a surprise (maybe Kyle O'Quin), it would be over for the league. Making back to the Finals - no way this team gets broken up yet. They're too good and the East should be even easier for them next season.

 

???
future of the rockets depends on whether or not we get a superstar if anything

 

Funny to see what people expect to happen. Here's my guess:

Lakers: Not done. Will retool this offseason and keep fighting. They'll turn Pau into something to revitalize the team.

Spurs: Will probably keep trying another season, but I don't see them really contending.

Dallas: Add Deron Williams and be back in contention.

Miami: They'll be back, duh.

Boston: Will blow it up this offseason. They'll try to hang on to Rondo while they suck for the next few seasons at least.

Bulls: Will be a playoff team next season, but won't contend again until the season after, Rose's knee willing. If Rose can't get back to his old self, they'll have to think real hard about what to do.

Rockets: If we're pinning our hopes on D-Mo, we're done. He may look promising and all, but he's a rookie. If he's ever going to carry anybody, that's still a few seasons away.

Clippers: Pretender for the foreseeable future.

Jazz: Up and comer.

 

The Lakers won't be contending until Kobe retires after this contract. They can then either build around Bynum or completely blow it up.

Howard has said that he didn't want to play with Kobe in LA. But they can't get rid of Kobe now because of his contract.

Anyway, Lakers management is a mess under the young Buss.

Dallas will be contending if they get Williams.

Miami will be contending as long as they have LeBron.

 

I think the most unique thing about OKC is that they are so young. They will probably be the youngest team is terms of age to win (assuming they do). The teams that content for the title are usually the most veteran teams. This really should be LeBron's title to lose but, it turns out he is losing. Like we're skipping a generation of superstars that will never win championships (well, Wade got his but that was with a big assist from and old timer). Right now the the class of 2004-2006 should be asserting themselves but Durant and Westbrook could end up shutting out that whole era and just skipping forward. It's something that has never happened in NBA history.

 

the rockets are the new pacers... and the pacers are... good...

 

I think this year might have been a special circumstance that allowed the Spurs to overachieve.

1) Lockout worked in their favor. A team full of veterans that had played together for 10 years was hurt the least by the lack of a training camp.

2) They got punked by the Grizzlies last year in the first round and that lit a particularly large fire under their asses.

3) The West was decidedly weaker this year than what has been the standard for the last 10 years or so.

4) They got the easiest draws imaginable in the playoffs in the Jazz and Clippers.

I think this year was a mirage. A last gasp at greatness for the Spurs. Their time is over. Unless no team manages to step up into the elite tier to replace what the Mavs/Lakers have been for the last 3-4 years, I can't see them making another Western Conference Finals, let alone NBA Finals.

 

This has a Michael Jordan/Bulls feel to it

The great championship veteran teams are too old (Celtics, Lakers, Pistons for MJs era....Lakers, Spurs, Celtics for Durants era) and not many promising young teams out there to challenge them. Maybe the Heat can challenge them in the NBA finals but Wade is looking more and more Vince Carter-ish as he's aging and losing his athleticism. They basically have no threats to stop them to a title for the next 3-4 years unless there are injuries

 

The Good/Elite Teams:

** The Lakers have had just 5 non-playoff seasons. EVER, in their entire 64 year existence. The last 2 seasons cuz of freak occurence Magic Johnson HIV. And Shaq + Phil Jackson leaving and Rudy T stepping down AND Kobe being injuried. Pencil them in. Its just a matter if they're a title contender or lower seed spoiler.

** The Heat & Thunder are set for now and later. The Heat need help but not TOO much more. Mike Miller had a comeback year, but not enough. If they just got even Sam Dalembert this year, they'd be that much tougher.

** If Dallas can't capilize on being a big market free agent draw and feel their window is closed, they WILL TANK to rebuild as a strategy (if you're to trust Cuban on his word). Part of me thinks they can lure someone over.

** The Spurs and Celtics are done contending,unless they can convince some talented ring chasers over. But they're working against NBA history in having a high average team age win titles, 30+ years average. They both have young enough lead guards to keep them decent but not great. That'd just be delaying the inevitable of rebuilding.

** Clippers are a bit of a wild card. They have talent, but also have bad management. They need to come out to a big start and be "buyers" instead of sellers to legitimate themselves.

** Knicks, they're just a hard team to even think about. Too much variables and dramas.

The Lesser/Emerging Teams:

** The Jazz. They're going up or at least will be the same. They're bring back good players in their prime plus some young talents with more experience.

** Minnesota has a couple good talents and a good coach. But they need to be like the Grizzlies with at least 3 VERY solid players. They have Love and Rubio, Pekovic emerging, Beasley a pretender. Grizzlies have Randolph, Gasol, Gay, Conley. Unless T-Wolves in-house talent emerges in Derrick Williams, they'll make improvement but more in the incremental Brandon Roy/Aldridge Trailblazers way. They're a couple good players and another season away. But if Rubio somehow develops an average jump shot next year and better finishing ability at rim to just Kyle Lowry level, thats's several games instant improvement.

** And I'm just tired of writing and thinking.... stopping here

 

No Rockets mention?

 

http://www.slamonline.com/online/nba/2012/06/their-time-is-now/
Very interesting article on the Thunder and their salary situation.

 

Pacers are on the rise and I can see them challenge Heat. Or Bulls with Rose at 80%. Wade is broken down. He's getting the knee issue like Kobe in 2010 and that probably needs a surgery. And we all know how much he relies on athleticism.

In west, Mavs may be contender again if they get DWill

 

The west is still tough so don't get your hopes up. If anything be excited about the AFC this year

 

Wade carried the Heat to a championship in 2006 with one of the greatest finals performances in history. He averaged around 35 points against Dallas (while an already aging Shaq gave about 13 ppg in the series).

 

People have been saying the Spurs have been done for the last 5 years yet they still always contend. As long as Pop is coach and management is in place and Duncan is not retired that team will contend.

 

They naysayers have to be right sooner or later.

 

Does anything think the Hornets will make the playoffs with Davis and Gordon healthy all season? I think they're primed to surprise a lot of people.

 

I agree that he did the heavy lifting my point was that that Miami Heat team was a veteran team. Rounded out by an aging Mouring and Payton. Who didn't do much but they fit more into the mold of the conventional team we see go far in the playoffs. Their leader was young but by and large they were a veteran team.

My point is that this should be the era of Carmelo, Amare, Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Paul and Howard and only one of those guys has a title. If Miami gets shut out here the window for the rest of these guys is going to start looking awful small.