2012 MLB Draft

Read my above post on the nature of prospects this year. It explains how the lack of a clear star-level #1 pick gave the Astros extra money to play around with due to the steep decrease in money allocation as you go down the draft. The Astros didn't take any risks because they knew they had the money going in. Well, that's the reward for being a horrible team last year and having no Bryce Harper in the draft.

 

It's kind of funny how much credit our GM is getting when in fact the whole ability to draft all these top high school guys rested with the #1 pick and signing Correa to far under the slot available. With the crap shoot nature of the draft, it makes a ton of sense to draft the 4th or 5th best player available and use that extra slot money to sign other players above their slots. You might not get the best player in the draft but you get a better draft overall with more quality prospects. Unless you have a Strasburg type prospect, this is probably a good way to go. Next year we certainly won't have the top pick and this tactic won't work quite so well.

 

I've seen a few people mention that next year's draft will be deeper, but I can't find much info about the top prospects. I saw one site that mentioned a high school pitcher, but they never go #1. Also, do y'all think Chicago is aiming for that #1 pick? Sorry if this question belongs elsewhere.

 

Karsten Whitson, pitcher from U of Florida (was a first round pick in 2010 but didn't sign), then Ryne Stanek from U of Arkansas. Stanek pitched against Rice in the regional round last week. He was throwing upper 90s and was filthy. Big time competitor who plays with a lot of fire.

 

If you don't think the McCullers pick was a risk then you're crazy. Drafting a tough sign in the supplemental round of any year is a risk because not only did you waste the pick if he doesn't sign, you also don't get reimbursed the following year. Now if you don't sign him you lose his slot value. If it turns out that he doesn't sign, it would have been better to just draft an easy sign college guy who would have gone below slot. Instead of losing the entire slot value you actually save money by drafting conservatively. The Astros also probably reached on a few guys with the intent to save money and we could still walk away with Ruiz and McCullers not signing. That is a risk and would significantly weaken the draft class's overall talent.

 

Are we talking relative risk or absolute risk? I'm not arguing that every pick by the Astros as risk free. I'm just speaking in relative terms compared to other teams, factoring in each teams' draft money allotment. There's a difference between being able to sign below value out of $7+mil allotment, and being able to sign below value out of $1-2mil allotment, which is what the bottom half of the 1st round got.

And if you truly believe Luhnow would actually make the McCullers pick without having a good idea that he'll sign, then you underrate him as GM.

 

To break down the Astros advantage over other teams, the Astros pick was slotted at $7.2 mil. Correa signed for $4.8mil. That's $2.4 mil of money that the Astros gained from the deal.

$2.4mil is the slot allotment of the 14th pick of the draft.
$2.4mil is twice the slot allotment of a supplemental pick.
$2.4mil is 62% of the Rays entire draft allotment. The Rays picked #25 with no supplemental pick.

That's why the Astros can draft more hard-to-sign players than most other teams. But if you look at teams that also had a ton of money, like the Blue Jays, they also came away with a ton of high-upside talent. It's what happens when you play on an unequal playing field.

 

I'd expect McCullers to sign somewhere around $2.5m, which is top 14 money, right around where he was ranked as a prospect. That leaves you with $1.15m left over to sign Ruiz and Virant. Jesse Winker signed for $1m flat out of highschool as the 49th pick, 25k under slot. Winker was committed to Florida. So given that comparable, I'd expect Ruiz to sign for around $1m as well, give or take a 100k or so. That leaves you with $510k + $100k to sign Virant.

So somewhere else in the draft, we're going to have to find a few hundred thousand dollars where we can save. I think Nolan Fontana signs for around 750k, so that's 100k saved. We could probably get Preston Tucker for $50k as a senior sign, which is another 100k. Minor signed for 50k, which saved 80k. Brady Rodgers may have given us a hometown discount and knows he can't improve his draft stock by staying in school. Perhaps we saved 75k on that one.

So that's roughly $355k saved, but Brett Phillips, probably got more than the $202k he was slotted. He probably signed for at least $400k, so we're left with a paltry $765k left to sign Virant. I'd assume it would take at least $1.25m for him to sign.

But say McCullers doesn't sign. If we have the above scenarios (2.6m-ish saved), we give Ruiz an extra 640k to sign and have a little over 1.9m left. Virant takes 1.25m, which leaves us with around $750k. I'd really hope that McCullers would sign for $2m, which is still 17th pick money and then we'd have Correa, McCullers, Ruiz, Phillips, and Virant and still be within our bonus pool. But again, what if that isn't enough for McCullers? Throw that money at Hinojosa who I think would be easier to sign than Traver, although I'd much rather have Traver as I don't think CJ is that good of a prospect.

We also have another ace up our sleeve in the 5% threshold which is about $550k. Essentially we can spend $550k more than our allotted bonus pool without being penalized.

Dream scenario? McCullers signs for $2m, Virant signs for $1.25m, Ruiz signs for $1m, Phillips signs for $400k, and we go up to the threshold for Hinojosa and sign him for $1.25m which still leaves us with maybe 150k wiggle room.

 

Everybody is hyping McCullers . From what I read, he has a chance to be a starter but is might be projected as an elite closer. Finding a closer is cool and such but he need to build a roation of pitchers like the Pitrates are doing. Passing on Matt Barnes last year was a mistake. I just hope we can have a top 5 pick next year and finally draft an ace finally.

 

McCullers is projected to be a starter (#2 or #3) with the potential to be an elite closer if he can't start. The guy can flat out throw (can hit 100 mph and has kept the speed on his fastball in the high 90's in his last couple of starts), he also has a feel for the curve ball, slider and can use the change-up (though he hasn't used it much).

Luhnow was interviewed as saying that he believed that McCullers had made the progression from thrower to pitcher and that he was pretty excited that he was there @ #41.

 

There is a 75% tax on that, so we do get penalized, but it is still doable. I assume at least some owners will do it. Everybody just wants to avoid going over 5% and losing a 1st round pick.

I think Fontana could sign for $500k. A guy like him will be in a world of hurt if he goes back to school and re-enters the draft as a senior.

 

I don't know where I read this but hunter Virant said he wouldn't sign if he got drafted after the supplemental round, the last pick(60) is worth 857K, so I expect him to sign from about 900K to 1 million

 

McCullers best pitch is his "interesting" curve. He has a very good arm, and would probably hit 100 out of the pen. The slider and change up are basically show pitches.
He doesn't have a great projectable frame, and has a troubling delivery. His last 4-5 games in high school supposedly (I have not seen tapes of these games) showed advanced command and toughness.

I like the pick because his repertoire is right now that of an elite two pitch closer baring a complete mental melt down or injury. He has a shot to become a #1 starter with improved command and development of a change up or split.

Some folks really seem concerned with the possibility of him being a closer. An elite young closer at #41, under the teams control is huge. Having Wagner, Dotel and Lidge were a huge part of the teams success.

 

But you could also argue that if each of them was capable of being a starter... they would have been more valuable.

Additionally, all of the above three pitchers were drafted as STARTING pitchers, with only Wagner never making a start in the big leagues.

The needs of the team at the time, along with the natural history of their careers converted them to being bullpen pitchers (with Dotel especially being much more effective as a bullpen pitcher than as a starter).

In the end, if a pitcher is CAPABLE of being a starting pitcher... ie, has more than just one quality pitch that he can throw just as well after ~70 pitches as he does on his first pitch, and with a limited injury history that allows him to throw potentially 200 innings a year... you make him a starter.

 

what do you mean "interesting"? Is it a spike curve? Or just a quality normal curve?

 

excellent post. exactly what I was going to say. Even if it doesnt work out as a starter, I would have him as a closer. we don't even have a closer type guy in our system. chapman (not arodis lol) is the closest we have as a closer in our minor league system.

 

I agree an elite starting pitcher is more important than an elite closer, however if he becomes an elite closer I am not going to view the pick as a failure. I believe he will become a closer based on his lack of a third pitch and his delivery. I hope becomes an #1-2 starter, but think it is less likely.

 

My mistake. I thought the penalties didn't occur until the 5% mark.

 

At this point, I think the best we can expect is signing 2 of McCullers/Ruiz/Virant/Hinojosa. My preference would be the McCullers and Ruiz. That would still be a good draft.