THIS! This is not the NFL where they favor rookies over vets Dude has proven he can do in IN THE LEAGUE That is not something to throw away to get a chance to take a chance Will they get the next LeBron in the draft or the next Leon Smith? Rocket River
I was looking at the luxury taxes OKC would pay if they paid their big 4 max money, kept Perkins on his current run rate, and basically let all other contracts run out. It's crushing. $30m+ in luxury taxes each year. And then it'd jump in 2016/17 because of the repeat offender penalty, and they'd only have 5 guys under contract. They'd also run into the sorts of flexibility penalties that NY is flirting with now. This team must break up after the 2012-2013 season. If they match offer sheets to Ibaka and Harden that offseason, they can't trade those players without their consent (good luck on that) for 1 year. It's possible to wait till the next offseason and then trade one for a lottery pick. On the one hand, they will be in a stronger position because the player will be more seasoned; on the other, it'll be weaker because the impending free agent will have more power to pick the team he wants and OKC would have more urgency to make a trade then to avoid crippling luxury taxes. Harden might pull a Joe Johnson. Or a Dwight Howard. Even so, they're contenders now and OKC should be loathe to change anything before they have to. But, I can see a scenario where they trade Harden this offseason to avoid any pitfalls in trying to trade him later.
come on. If Thunder win, they won't get broken up. Never happens in the NBA. Look it up. Show us one NBA title winning team (after their first win) who got broken up the very same summer. Harden is not leaving a championship team that he loves. Don't be ridiculous. I think you are talking about the NFL or MLB. silly thread
Orlando paid $87M this year, pre-tax, for a roster thrown out of the first round in a small market lacking the serious support OKC does. Call me crazy, but I don't see the Thunder breaking up a championship contender because of tax implications. They've been a very profitable franchise every year, and it would be a surprise to see them start being cheap the second their margins shrink.
I think you're the one that's being ridiculous if you think Harden or Ibaka are going to give OKC some significant sort of hometown discount to avoid luxury tax armageddon on their first and best opportunity to sign a big money contract. If they're considering it, they need a psychiatrist. They will get what the market will bear, either from OKC or on an offer sheet from someone else. First-year champions is a pretty small data-set to look at, so I too would be surprised if anyone can find good examples. But, there are many examples of great, title-contending teams that broke up before they could be dynasties. 1. Shaq leaving the Magic right after their loss in the Finals. They would have been in the thick of it for years to come with Shaq and Penny. 2. Joe Johnson leaving the Phoenix Suns as an RFA (and begging the Suns not to match) because there were too many stars there to compete with. Really looks a lot like OKC's position. 3. Stephon Marbury leaving a great tandem with Garnett in Minnesota so he could go suck by himself. 4. Dallas letting Chandler go right after he helped them finally win a title. Harden on the same team with Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka and Perkins is not sustainable. There isn't enough money, minutes, touches, or stardom to go around. And, if they do win the championship, I think it is more likely that Harden ends up leaving than if they don't, because his value as a trade chip and as a free agent will be magnified (and probably overestimated).
They have one more title run next year, so I don't see them trading Harden. Better to have that repeat title and let him walk, than to trade him and not contend.
I know what you meant and completely agree. They should be able to unload Perk and either Serge or Cole moves to starting C. Maynor is a major league luxury to have and there is no way at all they keep him past next season. WB's minutes can go back down a little, which will be necessary because of the Olympics. Maynor will have a big season and be a much sought after RFA. I had high hopes for Reggie Jackson and still think he can be better than Maynor, but the lockout and lack of confidence killed his development. The talent and athleticism are there. Some of you doubters will be surprised when Harden is extended later this year. Maybe Ibaka too but doubtful.
OK, how about *all* championship teams. How many of them were broken up for reasons other than old age or retirement, a summer after just winning the title for the first time or a 2nd, 3rd, etc. Also, I think there is more than one historical precedence of a 3rd in a Big 3 taking less than max to stay on the championship team -- see Ginobili for starters. It's not a given to say Harden demands max. They love him in Oklahoma; he has a ton of business opportunities there and nationally (I'm sure) if he stays with his drafted championship team vs becoming an NBA gypsy just to make a few million more bucks. You and the OP saying Harden would need to see a psychiatrist to take less than market reeks of a debater framing the argument too much. He won't lose money by taking a few million less as long as he has an agent who can promote business opportunities for him to stay with his championship team as part of the NBA's darling young team "who did it the right way." I know this is a different environment with the luxury tax, but you call it the "Big 4" and include Perkins. Not sure why you seem to say they must keep Perkins and jettison Harden? When I say broken up, I only mean the Big 3. So if they have to amnesty Perkins, I don't consider that breaking up the Big 3. Plus, honestly...I'm with emjohn $110m a year of salaries + tax is something I think OKC's owners would consider (if they win the title), if they can't purge anything major. I'm not so sure they'd be losing money at that rate...maybe for a year, but they have time to slowly purge...so it might only hurt for a year or two.
i always lol at people who think just because they win they will take less money to keep the team together. So delusional money talks and if anyone takes less money it will be ibaka im sure harden will go wherever there is more money
Guys Harden isn't going anywhere. They'll amnesty Perkins 1st or let Ibaka walk. Its easier to find those two guys again than to find another Harden who's willing to come off the bench.
Come on. I gave you 4 examples, and you gave me one. Plus, I'll grant you half of Barkley taking a pay-cut for the Rockets -- only half because he already made a bunch of money before that. So, 1.5. As for the sample, I don't think there's anything magical about being the actual champion -- it's only relevant because it probably means you're a contender the next year too, barring changes. So I think looking at young contenders makes more sense than looking at champions. A few million less might happen. But, changing nothing else, I think it'd take more than a little discount. If Westbrook (the pior year), Harden and Ibaka each started at $14.5m and they signed or drafted no one else (including losing Maynor), in 2013-14, they'd be at $88.4m. The current luxury tax line is at $70.3m. That's be $32.7m in lux tax. Then the next year -- do they want to keep Sefolosha and Aldrich? They'd be even higher. A hometown discount might make the team sustainable if it was literally 50% off. (And, I'm sure his business prospects will be better in NYC.) Dropping Perkins instead might also do the trick. I'd drop Harden first for a couple of reasons: 1. He has a high trade value for a team with a high lotto pick. So, he could fetch you a guy who can give you good performance on a rookie-scale contract that will let OKC perpetuate their model of success. 2. You already have Westbrook and Durant on the perimeter, so OKC isn't maximizing Harden's usefulness anyway. A big man like Perkins can be used more fully. I still think of dropping Perkins as breaking up the core. But, you're right it doesn't have to be Harden that ships out. Maybe. I can easily see them holding on to Harden and spending the money to keep contending. I'm just speculating on the reasonableness or advisability of OKC dumping Harden. And, I'm just saying it might work for them to do it considering their salary structure. They could keep contending without Harden.
I'm not too sure about that. Shotblocking athletic bigs are in shorter supply in this league than guys who can put up 15-17 ppg. Harden is much easier to replace.
Actually the thunder can't offer him the max because of the new cba. Durant was signed before the new CBS so he doesn't count but they signed Westbrook to a max contract, so in the new cba you can only sign one player to a max contract coming out of their rookie contract. So who ever offers Harden a max contract the thunder can't match it.
While I'm the first to admit I do not know all the new cba rules, but I'm 99% certain other teams will not be able to offer Harden a 5 year deal unless he is traded beforehand. Otherwise they are limited to a 4 year offer at most.
Reading through Coon's breakdown. I think you are confusing the rules on New Contracts with Rookie Extensions, T-Slack.
