I'll be satisfied with Appel, but I'd be really excited if they drafted Buxton or even Correa. I don't know if I'm more excited about who will be drafted 1st overall, or how the Astros will go about the rest of the draft.
The ceiling is there. They can pick apart whether or not he can reach it, but he definitely has the talent. Throws 3 plus pitches and can throw 97 with movement.
Buxton is the type of talent that gets a fan base excited. A future power hitting outfielder is the prototypical star position that could light a fire in Houston. The only thing saving the Stros from a upset fan base if they take Appel, is the Houston connection that a lot of the old time fans will love.
He obviously has a ceiling to be a #1 pitcher otherwise he wouldn't be considered for the top pick or a consensus Top 5 player on almost every board. The concern is will he reach it or will he end up being a middle of the rotation type pitcher
I get your point and you're right there's no way to know for sure how good we may be next year but you'd have to admit it's doubtful. I just prefer a position player with the highest ceiling who can impact every game for us in the future rather than every 5th or 4th game. I know pitching wins championships but gotta have bats in abundance in the AL.
Appel certainly has ace material, he has a solid delivery, can throw 3 pitches for strikes, his frame is still projectable and he consistently throws 94-96 with room to even add a few ticks to that. He is getting almost 10k per 9 inning, has a WHIP of .99 and has an era better than Zimmerman and the other best pitchers in his class. The flawed argument I hear is "well he should be doing better with his stuff", fair enough I suppose (although he is an ace in college), but using that logic he has potential to get better. Sometimes I think people fall in love with electric fastball pitchers that hit 100 mph and forget that most aces do not throw 100 mph and fail to look at the command, control, secondary pitches and delivery of the pitcher. No, Appel is not Strasburg or Prior coming out of college, but he fits the future #1-#2 starter about as well as anyone you will find. If the Astros take him I expect him to be a #1-#2 in the rotation for a long time assuming he avoids injury.
While I agree that this organization could use an "in-house ace" and has plenty of potential at OF already, I keep coming back to something that Luhnow said a few months ago. Namely, that the club would not let positional need dictate how they run their minor league system. He wanted to move back several top prospects to the positions at which they were most successful, as opposed to other positions they moved to in order to play other prospects at the same time. The reasoning being that you could always trade a prospect for another prospect at a position of need; and maximizing the value of our prospects would better accomplish that objective. For those reasons, I think position may not necessarily dictate who the Astros select #1 overall tonight. I think TALENT and SIGNABILITY (including perhaps willingness to sign at below slot) will be the key factors to that decision.
Signability will only be an issue in terms of the player's willingness; I can guarantee you amount will not factor into the decision. Trust me.
Odd that people here are mostly questioning whether or not Appel would become a star or not. When he is actually by far the most likely to be an impact player in the majors among the top prospects. Buxton and Correa are like your typical big men at the top of the NBA draft. If you hit on a Tim Duncan or Dwight Howard, your future looks bright for the next 5-10 years. But a lot of times you end up with Thabeet or Kwame Brown or Kandiman. If the Astros brass see too many question marks with these high school hitters, then they should try to go the safer route with the 1st pick. And try for more gambles later on.
Its the Buxton effect! A potential star big hitting outfielder over the safe pitcher has become the perception. In reality its a very very good pitcher VS a "possible" franchise type player.
Sounds good in theory, but it's far from that simple. Prospect for prospect trading, particularly on the upper echelon of teams' prospect lists, doesn't happen in baseball. The Jesus Montero/Michael Pineda trade is probably the closest example of something that rare happening in recent memory, and even that was after Pineda pitched in the majors for almost a full season. That said, you are correct: "need" should never be a factor in a baseball amateur draft. it's one player out of literally hundreds who will be filtered through the farm in the 2-4 years between now and when they (hopefully) see the majors. There is no possible way to predict what the team's landscape looks like that far down the road. One factor that is being overlooked is, if Bobby Heck still has any pull, I don't think that Appel is enough of a world-beater to make him stray from his trend/philosophy of using the top pick on a position player, and loading up on pitching throughout the rest of the draft.
hey, i agree with you! how about that!? one addition though: i also guarantee that signability among the 1st 5 or so picks, and especially the handful that we are talking about the astros taking, will not be a factor period.
If you are rebuilding its time to gamble. You have nothing to lose because the latter rounds are more important especially with pitching. I'd take Buxton and hope to get the 5 tooler that's hopefully better than Pence.
Kevin Goldstein thinks Appel is a Crane guy. The decision-makers like Buxton. Does the word of the owner trump everyone else's here?
