I am not saying I know how...but it is an electronic device and there is no one to say that it doesnt have the ability to select a certain ball over another... weighted ball... I dunno... I am sure they could have it rigged... The point isnt how...its that it is blatantly obvious that they are. When even league executives are complaining...you know is a legitimate concern. One rep even went as far as saying that he thought the hornets had 100 percent chance.... (paraphrasing here of course) (see my original post for quotes)
I have a complaint about Woj's quotes. They are completely out of context. Yeah, you could probably get an owner to tank for a 100% chance at Davis. Was that team president implying that New Orleans had that 100% chance? Maybe, but Woj puts no context around that quote other than the implications of his article. You obviously made that connection that Woj wanted, but it isn't what this president necessarily said. It's a joke that the Bensons were at the drawing? (It seems like a courtesy to me, but whatever.) But, why was this guy saying it's a joke? Was this exec saying it was unseemly for a non-owner to be present, or was he trying to imply that he was there to preside over the fix? There's no context to the quote, so I don't know what he was driving at. I only know what Woj was trying to imply. Some of this scandal might merely be bad reporting.
one it didnt have a high percentage..it was at like 13 percent or something...two it is just too perfect of a situation to be accidental. The combined odds of the Cavs, Bulls, wizards and NOs getting the no 1 pick with the added probability of the circumstances their teams faced (loosing, lebron, major market needing a star, loosing arenas, loosing CP3)....the mathematical probability of that happening are prob on pair with the whole put a silver dollar on ever inch of texas and tie a blind fold around a man have him randomly reach for the one with dot on it with once chance....ok that might be slightly exaggerative but still...its extremely unlikely.
I see what your saying...but adrian isnt the only one reporting...I think he left out further context for space limitations... There are several reporters reporting league execs complaining...i chose adrian because he is the most reliable...and to be honest I will stand on his body of work as proof enough. Prob the best in the industry... I think its obvious that is what the president meant... I mean why say that at all unless it was out of anger being a expressed to a nba journalist of all people...It was an obvious outcry to cause attention to the matter.
As someone else had mentioned, a number of teams had good story material to weave a conspiracy theory out of. So, if you want to say what the chance of it happening, add up all their chances together. Charlotte Bobcats .250 Jordan finally gets a piece to build on Washington Wizards .199 Cleveland Cavaliers .138 New Orleans Hornets .137 For sale to Benson Sacramento Kings .076 Compensate to stop the move out of town Portland Trail Blazers .075 Brooklyn would have kept the pick and had glamor team in new arena Golden State Warriors .036 To make a new glamor team in San Fran Toronto Raptors .035 Compensate for Bosh's departure, like they did for CLE last year Detroit Pistons .017 New Orleans Hornets .011 Portland Trail Blazers .008 Milwaukee Bucks .007 Phoenix Suns .006 Houston Rockets .005 Reward for not tanking? I get about 60% chance of a good conspiracy theory out of this draft.
Yeah, but if Houston won, people would cry conspiracy, too. Same with NJ. You can find a conspiracy theory for any winner, practically. I for one, also think the quotes in the Woj article need better context. Is there a serious accusation? How could the process be rigged, how many people would have to be involved, what is the cost/benefit to the league, including the risks involved? Apply Occam's razor.
None of those benefit the NBA as a benefit...except maybe the Nets and them bribing stern personally... The only one the directly benefited the nba as a business was the hornets... If charlotte cant operate a team thats not sterns concern...theyll just do what they did with the hornets eventually. But He needed someone to pay millions for a team...and no doubt telling a potential buyer...youll get davis would be a deal closer.
It's a good story with very little evidence and a lot of butt hurt fans and GMs. Like I said before, give me a scenario where this could be rigged, consider the risks and costs vs benefits, then apply Occam's razor.
Honestly, people like stern began to believe their on ego...their "will" so to speak starts to outweigh risk and logic. Tim Donahe said it about the refs part...there is enough evidence i believe for someone to to do an investigation.
This statement is a massive fail at statistics. Yeah, the chances of those four teams winning the lotto are small. But the chances of ANY four particular set of teams winning the lotto are miniscule as well, since there are hundreds upon hundreds of combinations. If instead, the Rockets, Heat, Wizards, and T-Wolves had been the four winners then that would also be a statisitcal improbability and thus one would call conspiracy.
Since the 1995 draft, 18 years in a row the lottery has used this format Team with the worst record or tied* for worst record- won it twice 2nd worst- twice 3rd worst (includes ties**)-five times 4th worst- never won it 5th worse- four times 6th worse- two times 7th worse- one time 8th worse- one time 9th worse- one time 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th worse- never * Cleveland tied for worst in 2003 **New Orleans tied for 3rd in 2012. Odds would say 25% of the time the worst team wins, so four times is "expected". It does show that the weighted lottery does help the worst teams, as opposed to all 14 having an equal chance, but it has just happened that the outcome has been a little less in favor of the top (worst) team and 4th worst team, and especially more in favor of the 3rd and 5th worst teams, than should occur in the long run. But just because an outcome is most likely doesn't make it probable. If you flip a coin 20 times the most probable result is 10 heads and 10 tails, but it is also very unlikely that if you do 20 flips you get EXACTLY 10 heads and 10 tails (~18% chance): So we are not getting results right in the middle of a bell-shaped curve you expect for draft lottery outcomes, but if you have dealt much with stats, that's not that strange. 18 examples is actually quite a small sample set.
It is a four ball combination that is selected. If the balls were "fixed" to give that specific combination, then after the 1st pick is determined and the balls go back into the hopper, guess what? The fixed balls would give that same combination again. and again. and again... Each time the result would be thrown out since that team has already been slotted (a "dead" combination by the earlier detailed description) Nobody would notice that? None of the team representatives who "lost" the lottery would say "what is going on here!" No witnessing media members would write about it?
