The Rockets' Approach This Offseason Might Not Involve Using Cap Space

Lee wouldn't bolt if we had Dwight locked up.

 

A few thoughts about the cap situation:

1. I think the main advantage of having cap space, even if it's just $8-9 million is that you have more options on how to use it than you do with the MLE, BAE, and trade exceptions. You can use the salary cap to in a trade (not so with MLE and BAE) and have an easier time using the cap space to eat large salaries than you do with a trade exception (can't be combined with another trade exception or with a player in a trade). Also, I think there are some guys who might be worth pursuing at $6-9 million that you'll have a much harder time getting at the Mid-level (Omer Asik, for one... maybe even Kris Humphries ).

2. The simplest thing to do in order to free up more salary space is to let Courtney Lee go. I like the guy, but feel pretty good about the Rockets ability to replace good role players like Lee.


3. As far as timing goes: they don't really have to renounce anyone's Bird rights (in particular, Camby's or Lee's) or any exception until the moment when they have somebody ready to make a deal (free agent signing/trade) that would require them to create the cap space or until Camby/Lee/Dragic is ready to sign with either Houston or with another team. My guess is that they won't make decisions on these things until the rules demand that they do.

3. The early July "moratorium" (lasting until July 10th or so?) is window in which the Rockets can assess their options and sort out what they need to do cap-wise. To the extent they have max money free agents (restricted or unrestricted) to pursue (Eric Gordon and Hibbert?), these guys will most likely tell the Rockets one way or another. They'll probably also know the market for Dragic by that point (Lee's decision will probably come later... doubt that anyone sees him as a top priority to pursue).

 

Disagree because memphis and atlanta have all star level talent on their roster. Rudy gay,zach randolph,josh smith,and horford can bring back more than anything the rockets can hope for.whether its lotto picks or picks and players. The rockets can't even threaten a rfa because they only have 8m at best in cap room. Portland got a top 10 pick for wallace and they have cap room. Again, the rockets are in the worse place to be.

 

Actually, if you read what Bima wrote and other stuff about the cap, it is clear that the Rockets can easily get to "max" level cap space of they just let Lee go to get rid of the cap hold or trade/amnesty Martin.

 

Thank you for referencing two teams I am familiar with. Atlanta and Memphis are currently tied in knots. The only thing they can do is sign their draft picks. Memphis is OK for the next 2 seasons but there is no way they improve. Atlanta is in a world of hurt starting now.

So basically they will certainly be no better next season. And god is Atlanta in a world of hurt.

 

That would be the right thing to do, but its to risky for morey. If they were to trade scola and martin,then they would be in the hunt to do something big, but morey want that value option. Someone will offer lee 6m per and morey will match. He could then try to trade martin,but his value is garbage. So they would be lucky to get a dump,but it would probably be a last yr contract type player for 9ish-11m. So that 8m is almost gone and the rockes would have lee at 6m and that salary swap. I've seen this movie before.

 

Memphis will be better because conley and gasol are getting better. Atl can get a great package for smith.

 

I doubt Lee gets a $6 mil/year offer and I doubt that Morey matches if Lee does get that offer. Lee is easy enough to replace so that you on,y want to keep him if the money is right.

 

I cannot forecast what Morey is going to do. Forecasting what GM's are going to do is very difficult because each and every one of them has a 7 figure staff behind them feeding them options.

 

The Rockets should have an easy enough time should they want to trade Martin. At the very worst, they can amnesty him (or their other big salary guy, Scola), though I don't think it'll even come to that. He is a good fit for teams that want a shooter/slasher and his expiring contract makes trading for Martin an attractive option for a team who wants reinforcement but does not want to get stuck with a long term contract which is generally necessary to offer when you sign a free agent (perhaps hoping to get into 2013 free agency).

 

Affalo got 8,but he's a better player. I could easily see 5.5m for lee. You know how morey has a value to a player like lee similar to lowry.

 

Absolutely completely and totally true. But that is the only way Memphis is getting better.

And I would expect that the Rockets would be major players in the J. Smith trade talks. Atlanta pretty much has to trade Smith, and every GM in the NBA knows it. And since they have just 6 players signed for 61 million dollars next season they may be pretty much screwed.

 

Doubt Morey values Lee as high as he did Lowry back when Lowry was an FA. Lowry is simply had more upside than Lee does. Specifically, Lowry was coming off the bench, but he was already leading the 2nd unit that outplayed the starters with Brooks. He was pushing leading the break, getting to the FT line, and rebounding at a high rate. In other words, he looked like a guy who would be worth significantly more than the MLE if he was given 30+ mpg.

Lee, on the other hand, is pretty much a good role player and nothing more. Defends the ball, makes open Js and some straight line drives (for layups or pull up J). Doesn't really create for the rest of the team. He looks pretty much like an MLE player at best.

I think the Rockets may very well approach the Lee situation like they did Chuck Hayes' free agency last season: they'd want him back, and would pay around the MLE but probably only if they manage to trade for a star player (or two) first so that the extra "cap space" taken up by Lee becomes less relevant. Remember, the Rockets asked Chuck Hayes to wait for them to try and complete the Gasol deal (and attempts to sign Nene and Marc Gasol) first before finally having to let him go.

It's not just about the money, it's about the cap situation and what use you can make out of the extra cap space.

 

I don't think it's a small task, but it's a task that the Rockets front office has succeeded at a few times. For example, they found Chandler Parsons last year and, you know, Courtney Lee the year before.

I think he's worth about the full MLE, and if signed at that price, is a valuable team member and trade asset for the future. However, I don't think they'll let him get in the way of, say, signing a $13-14 million/year free agent.

In any case, the prerequisite, and the bigger issue, is whether the Rockets have something major lined up (a big trade or signing a near-max free agent) for which they'll need $5.56 million in extra cap space (close to $14 million rather than $8.2 million). Given the magnitude of the money involved to require this kind of cap space, they'll probably know how likely such a deal is by the time teams get to signing mid-level free agents like Lee.

Agreed.

Generally agree with the above. A number of decisions need to, and probably will be, made on or before draft night. I'm sure they've mapped out the possibilities and have been gathering intelligence. One major piece of info is the lottery-- the Rockets will most likely stay at 14th, but it still matters what happens to other potential trade partners. I won't be surprised if the Rockets tries to get deals made before the day of the draft so they can make further maneuvers on draft night.

 

With the lax trading rules, it is conceivable to trade for Dwight and at the same time create a TPE equal to a max contract. The way it could be done is by trading everyone on the same day, all our contracts, Dally, Lowry, Martin, Scola, Morris, Patterson, plus our two drafted players on the same day. You could trade Scola and Martin for a future draft pick, getting no salary in return or you could trade them to a team like Minnesota and Minnesota only has to send out half their salary, you could easily flip that to another team. Several ways to do it. But one way that makes sense to me would be involve Martin to Minnesota, Derrick Williams to NJ, and Wesley Johnson here or somewhere else.

 

Yeah, I left out one step. Gasol.

 

One thought about the "Teams like Atlanta have more flexibility than Houston because they can easily take trade great young talent like Josh Smith or whoever for a guy that help them take the next step" meme:

If this was true, why haven't the Hawks taken that next step yet?

"Leveling up" in the NBA into true contender status is not that easy.

 

All star level talent doesn't mean anything.

Zach Randolph has close to zero value, is old, and is on a decline.

People are finally realizing that Rudy Gay is a "never will be" on an albatross contract, so outside of a similar player, ala Monta Ellis, he is close to worthless.

Horford is decent, but no one is going to trade a future franchise player for him, only another player of his caliber.

I like Smith, but he is expiring, so unless he is traded for a place he wants to be, he is not all that valuable.

What does RFA have to do with anything? The Rockets have a plethorea of small assets to possibly package for Dwight. The Rockets have the flexibility to clear up room for Deron if he wants to come here. They have the pieces to move up or back.

As I said before, teams capped out, but not good enough to contend, are the worst place to be.