I will make it very easy for you. http://rockets.clutchfans.net/1846/motiejunas-to-dwight-howard-catch-me-if-you-can/
Delaying entering the NBA in order to go off the "rookie scale" is generally a bad business proposition. The key to making big NBA money is to enter free agency, preferably unrestricted, as early as possible after proving yourself a productive NBA player. Any extra money that one might have made by not being subject to the rookie scale and being productive in Europe is chump change compared to what you can make on a 2nd NBA contract if you are a productive NBA big. For example: Tiago Splitter was a first round pick, stayed in Europe (due to contractual obligations over there-- big $ buyout) stayed for 3 years and went off the rookie scale before coming over. He signed for only $11 mil for 3 years even though he was one of the finest centers in Europe by the time he came over. Sure it's more than what he'd make on the rookie scale, but the difference is really chump change compared to what he'd make on his 2nd NBA contract when he hits free agency. It's just not worth delaying your free agency entrance (and subject yourself to a higher level of injury risk while cutting down on your prime earning years) in order to make a couple more million dollars a year on the rookie deal. This is why almost no 1st round picks, European or American, go overseas (or stay there) for the purpose of getting off the rookie scale. People who do delay entering the NBA are typically guys under European contracts when drafted with no outs or with huge buyouts. As for Motienjunas choosing to remain in Europe for playing time. I am fine with the choice, if he is really going to get playing time with his new team. He got a ton in Poland with a mid-level team (not competitive in Euro League, .500 in VTB United League, probably best in Polish league), but will he get similar playing time if he signs with one of the giants over there?
Bottom line with this organization is each young player has to earn their minutes. If Motie comes over here and either screws off or he just can't get the system down and play effectively, he'll most likely wind up in the valley, just like Morris did last season.
Well. The point of that question was about Howard being the most dominant force among all NBA bigs and how D-Mo would do against monsters like him, not that he will play center position. Again I can give you 100% that his natural position if power forward and he just couldn't be C in this league even if he wanted.
Reading this thread fills me with trepidation as to when not only DMo but also Llull will come over. I'm going to go read some of "we're gonna get Dwight Howard" posts from jopatmc. Better to be mildly exasperated than mildly preocuppied.
Funny stuff. Can't wait to post some more. I'm not saying we are gonna get Howard. What I am saying is there is a very real possibility. It's not like we have no chance. We are in the Howard sweepstakes and will be one of the last teams there.
I will assume that you did your homework and watched some of the games, most of the highlights, saw his workouts playing the low post and read a sampling of the European scouting reports. I can assure you that in at least one interview that he flatly stated he viewed himself as an NBA center. Therefore we will have to agree to disagree.
And assuming you did all of the above, can you give me a thoughtful and detailed analysis of why, given another 20 pounds and an understanding of NBA defensive schemes, he would not make an exceptional NBA center? Sorry, but giving me a 100% assurance just doesn't work with me.
Since I am lithuanian and watching Motiejunas play since he was 16 and reading everything I could find on the net about him I am staying to my opinion that he wil never be the C in the NBA. If you think otherwise, that is your choice, but what you are actually saying is that all of the NBA 610-7ft PF's could playing C's if they added mass to their frames. That's just wrong.
The problem with your scenario is you are using ONE guy as an example, what if Dmo signs for 3 mill a year for 2 years? The Rookie contracts lock you up for 5 years anyway.......it is all about maximizing the $$$ as soon as possible.... By staying over there he avoids all those team options at the end of his rookie scale contract.....and the number 20 pick in the draft has a pretty low contract starting point. DD DD
Not to mention DMo is only 20, so if he stayed 2 more years, got off the rookie scale he would be 22 or 23 when he comes over, just like any US kid who stayed 4 years in college. And he would avoid the lowball, NBA team controlled contract. DD
Fist of all their home arena sure isn't big, but do high school gyms in the US really have a capacity of 5,500 people? Secondly, who knows how much money he'd make. I doubt there's a huge, if any difference though. Remember, you also get housing, a car, etc... in Europe. I actually think D-Mo could get a salary of a about €1M after taxes, which if you factor in the benefits he'd receive would be just as good, if not better than what he'd earn in the NBA. Third, he plays nothing like a center, much less Yao Ming. He's not a center, period. He's a 4, who at times, may be able to play some at the 5. Finally, I think it'd be an awful idea for D-Mo to try to get his body up to 270lbs, as much of his game is based upon his quickness. What he needs to to is get stronger, not bigger (well he probably needs to add a few more pounds, but no more than 5-10). There's a big difference there. You don't need to be big to be strong (see: KG, Duncan). Also, he's NOT a center. This.
Don't mean to offend. Your posts are actually very good. A lot better than my I'm-at-work, hope-the-IT-dep't-doesn't-mind-this-too-much posts that I scribble out. I agree with you on Pau's talent, can't quite summon your optimism about Dwight Howard. Certainly Morey will try and if he succeeds, I'll be the first to eat crow.
The gym at my high school could probably hold about 2-3 people but we had two of them in the same building. There largest high school gyms go up to 10K people. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_high_school_gyms_in_the_United_States Now high school football(american) stadiums hold upwards to 23K people. Crazy I know. http://www.mademan.com/mm/10-largest-high-school-football-stadiums.html
Actually he was born in 1990, so he becomes 22 this year. If he waits two more years he'll come over when he turns 24.
He can try to sign for $3 mil a year for 2 years, or even for one year. He can also ask to sign for $9 million a year or even $12 million a year. In the end, It's a matter of negotiation and the respective leverage that each side has. What we do know is that when such negotiations take place, the typical result has been a 3-year contract in the Tiago Splitter range or below. Splitter may be the only example of which you can recall, but there have been others-- NBA draftees who achieved success in Europe and are not subject to the rookie scale but must still negotiate with the teams that hold their rights. In fact, some have even played for the Rockets, and one of them still does. Luis Scola's entered the NBA after his draft rights were traded to Houston-- he was not subject to the rookie scale because he was a 2nd round pick. He was an accomplished player in Europe by the time he came over. He signed for 3 years, $9.3 million. Marc Gasol was a 2nd round pick whose draft rights were traded to Memphis. He improved quite dramatically after he was drafted and won the Spanish ACB's MVG award before coming over to the US. He signed for 3 years, $9.8 million. Your boy Spanoulis was quite good with his Greek team (finished 7th in Euroleague player of the year voting) before coming over to the NBA, his contract was 3 years, $5.8 million (with 2 years guaranteed). David Andersen, accomplished European veteran whose draft rights were traded to the Rockets, signed for 3 years, $7.5 million with 2 guaranteed. Also, the "5 years" you are talking about is the # of years it takes to achieve "unrestricted" free agency under the rookie scale. If you are not under the rookie scale, it still takes 4 years to achieve the same status no matter what contract you sign. So, a player can sign for 1 year as a rookie, he'd be a restricted FA after that year. If he then signs for 2 more years in his 2nd contract, he's still be a restricted FA after it expires. In any case, whether you are talking entrance into free agency or entrance into unrestricted FA, staying several years in Europe in order to go off the rookie scale is just not worth it. It will still, on balance, delay your entrance into big money status and does not give you a meaningful bump on your rookie contract in the greater scheme of things.
It's the same interview though. (http://www.lithuaniabasketball.com/news-913-motiejunas-i-dont-want-to-just-sit-on-the-bench.html) I don't speak Polish, but I'm guessing it's just poorly translated. (As in something like, at the time he was sure he'd play in the NBA next season and while he'd probably still prefer to do so, he's not 100% now).
