Astros run differential

I think it will eventually turn negative, but we might finish the season close to .500 in pythagorean expectation, which is MUCH better than I expected.

 

What's most encouraging is how competitive this team has been. They haven't been blown out very much. Instead, they're the ones doing the blowouts. In games that have been decided by 5 runs or more (what Baseball Reference considers a blowout), the Astros are 6-3.

Their 0-5 mark in extra innings should get better with time. I feel like the Astros have been a bit unlucky at times. But they've exceeded all expectations.

 

would be badass to win the NL this year and give a big giant F U to all the other fans who say we will be irrelevant in the NL this year so it doesn't matter what we'll be in the AL next year.

 

I don't think the run differential is just going to plummet anytime soon. It's more intuitive to think the wins will increase to start to match the run differential more accurately than the other way around.

Hopefully after the All Star break (and likely subsequent trades) it can still stay on the positive side and still provide some good baseball to watch....

 

I think, for the first time, I'd be ecstatic for a 75 win season, or something in that neighborhood. I believe it would show they're on the right path and that a bright future might not be as far off as most of us probably thought.

 

I'd be ecstatic winning the NL and beating the Rangers in the world series. I take that word seriously.

 

Not really. The run differential is a small sample size compared to the projections we already had prior to the season for the team's talent level. It's likely that the team is overperforming and will regress toward its true talent level. However, it is looking more likely that the Astros are at least not as bad as we thought, and that's a step in the right direction.

 

For a young team, it's basically impossible to predict talent level. There's just as much a lack of sample size to project a lack of talent as the run differential.

But the 0-5 record in extra inning games is a sign that their actual play has been better than their record indicate. Whether this projects onto the rest of the regular season is another story.

 

after this thread was created, i'm expecting us to go scoreless for the next 20 games. thanks a lot, Air L!

 

It's time to phone Oswalt. Get it done Lunhow!

 

21-18 in regulation.

 

I think he signed with Texas

 

Not yet, but the ESPN guys say it will happen.

Read this and found it interesting, though:

RHP Roy Oswalt: The Rangers, along with other clubs, watched Oswalt throw on Friday. He is attractive to the Rangers, but also presents lots of question, not the least of which is the possibility he will be unneeded if Feliz comes back healthy. The Rangers could be stuck with a pitcher making $4-5 million who they don't have room for by the middle of July. Oswalt's potential salary could also be an issue. The Rangers are over budget by about $3-4 million. They needed to draw in excess of 3 million in attendance to break even with their original budget. Adding Oswalt might make it impossible to break even without a long playoff run.

 

Astros have played a lot more at home. I don't expect them to keep up with positive run differential when the home/road splits even out. I have liked them so far.

 

This is not true. We have statistics and scouting all through the minor leagues. It is quite possible to make projections regarding a young team--it's just not as certain as with an older one.

I agree with this part.

 

I've seen this a few places, but it makes no sense to me. If Oswalt pitches anything like you'd expect from Oswalt, he would be the #2 pitcher on their staff behind Darvish - or maybe #3 behind Feliz at worst. There should be no question about dumping Feldman, Harrison, or Holland out of the rotation in that scenario.

 

With the exception of his 82-inning honeymoon stint in Philadelphia to close 2010, Oswalt has been a mid-3s or worse pitcher (by ERA) every year since 2008, and that's in the weaker NL. There's also the issue of his age and chronic back condition. By comparison, Harrison was certainly a better pitcher in 2011, and it could be argued that Holland was about the same.

Of course, neither has the consistent track record of Oswalt and both have shown slight regression thus far in 2012. But if the Rangers are strapped financially, I could see it not being an easy decision.

 

In terms of ERA, Harrison and Holland were reasonable last year. But like you said, neither has much of a track record, and neither has been particularly good this year. Plus, their peripherals just aren't great - they put a lot of people and base and just don't dominate anyone. If I'm picking starters for the playoffs out of a collection of Darvish, Feliz, Harrison, Holland, Feldman, and Oswalt - then Oswalt is going to be in the top 3 if he's performing to his normal self.

That said, I agree on the finances - not at all arguing that part of it. How much he'd help the team is unclear, especially since they are almost certainly going to make the playoffs regardless - so you're really just talking about a handful of playoff starts that he's potentially adding value. I just don't think the idea that they wouldn't have room for him because they have 5 good starters is silly.