[ClutchFans] Rockets will seek Dwight Howard trade... again

Coming for your coaches!!
Bye bye McHale!

 

Dwight will really have to determine his future...sign the extension or force the Owner to trade him...and get value...either way...I see a really quick decision...Orlando is not waiting any more...

 

Clutch's interview with 1560 this morning. Thought Id post if you feel like listening.


http://www.1560thegame.com/audio/da...s-how-dwight-howard-was-almost-a-rocket-5168/

 

What sort of extension can he sign? Since he waived his opt out and is under contract for another year, isn't he only eligible for a two year extension (on top of the last year)? If true, he might tell them that he is going to wait until he is a free agent in 2013 to sign a new contract, so that he can get a max five year deal. Even if he tells Orlando he will resign next summer, should they believe him?

 

These are Dwight Howard's options regarding an extension to his contract:

Option A: Right now, he can sign an extension with Orlando that runs through the 2014-15 season. [Four years, including (a) this current season, (b) next season (which is the final year of his current contract) and (c) two more years]

Option B: If he waits until after July 1, he can sign an extension with Orlando that runs through the 2015-16 season. [Four years, including (a) next season and (b) three more years]

(If Dwight elects either Option A or Option B, then he CANNOT be traded for at least six months after the date of the extension.)

Dwight can get an extension as part of an "extend-and-trade" deal, in which he is extended and traded by Orlando to a new team, but such an extension could only be for THREE (3) total seasons, including all seasons under his current contract.

Option C: Right now, he can be extended-and-traded by Orlando to an extension that runs only through the 2013-14 season. [Three years, including (a) this current season, (b) next season (which is the final year of his current contract) and (c) one more year]

Option D: If he waits until July 11 (the end of the July Moratorium), he can be extended-and-traded by Orlando to an extension that runs only through the 2014-15 season. [Three years, including (a) next season and (b) two more years]


For these reasons, I think the following:

(1) Dwight will not likely agree to an extend-and-trade deal with Orlando until July 11 at the earliest, hurting the Magic's chance to complete a draft day deal at "maximum value" but instead leaving Orlando to field less favorable offers from teams.

(2) Few teams will want to give up a huge package of assets for Dwight in a draft day deal, since the longest commitment they could get from Howard in an extend-and-trade is one additional year.

(3) The Rockets will try to force the Magic to make a decision by draft day on a Howard-to-Houston deal, offering (maybe?) the best package of assets for a NON-EXTENDED Dwight Howard, a package that includes multiple 2012 first round picks. The Rockets will attempt to persuade Orlando that (a) it will not get a better offer for a "pure rental" of Howard and (b) if they don't trade Howard by the draft, they'll face another "Melo-Drama", where Dwight will be able to force his way to the particular team he wants, except with far worse return than Denver ended up getting in their fleecing of the Knicks. (This pressure will be exerted by the Rockets with full knowledge that, once the draft comes and goes, the bidding for Howard will go up substantially among teams looking for an extend-and-trade deal after July 11.)


Just my two cents. Take them for what they're worth.

 

Damn! I'll take your two cents anytime Bima!

 

2 cents in hand is worth 4 cents in a bush.

 

Bima that is EXCELLENT.

Thanks.

If he becomes an unrestricted Free Agent - he can sign for 5 years, right?

DD

 

NON-EXTENDED Howard can walk away after his one year service, then we are going to lose our package with first round picks, is this too big risk? Well, at least it is a good way to start a process of rebuilding if that is the case.

 

If/when Howard hits unrestricted free agency next summer, he will have the following options:

(1) Re-sign with his then-current team for up to five years, $117,950,774.

(2) Sign elsewhere for no more than four years, $87,591,270.

(3) Force a sign-and-trade deal, in which his then-current team would receive SOMETHING for him, but pursuant to which he could get no better than the same contract as he could under option (2) above.

I think Morey plans to get a "Howard rental" by offering the best package--but not nearly what he'd have to give up for Howard if he were locked in to a long-term contract--and then use the next year to try like hell to sell Dwight on the Rockets as an organization and on the City of Houston. Failing that, Morey would then extend the max contract from option (1) above and call Dwight's bluff that he'd leave more than $30 million on the table to go to another team (which would need to be a team with $20+ in cap room just for Howard to get the contract set forth in option (2) above).

It may not pay off in the end, but it's certainly a wise gamble given where the Rockets currently stand in the NBA competitive landscape.

 

I agree its worth the gamble.

You make it an easy decision for Deron to sign here by having cap space and Dwight signed on for the year.

You make it easy for Dwight to resign for the 5 years by having Deron committed and the extra money he would earn here vs elsewhere.

The only problem I forsee is if Orlando insists on Hedo going with Dwight, which could hurt our cap space for Deron.

 

When you have the chance for the best center in the league, you take it.

 

I don't think you can say that in a vacum. it depends on how big of a chance, and to what extent doing so comes at the expense of other viable options for real improvement.

 

BT - - thanks, again and as always. Qs:

What kind of SnT could someone like Dragic be involved in?
Where are the Lakes if they want to resign Hill?

Thanks, again. And as always.

 

If Dwight was in his early or mid thirties, I'd be cautious. But he's a proven two-way difference maker. He radically changes this team overnight. Plus, we have a front office that is very good at finding diamond-in-the-rough roleplayers. We won't be like the Heat and have our stars surronded by garbage. We'll have an actual team centered around the two most valuable positions- point guard and center.

 

Pipe dream:

PG: Deron
SG: Lee
SF: Parsons
PF: Patterson
C: Dwight

 

100% spot on analysis! Totally agree!

And *BIG IF*...they can complete that trade, it puts the Rockets in a good position to be able to focus their attention on Deron Williams right at the start of FA.

 

A sign-and-trade of Dragic would be difficult for two reasons:

(1) Dragic will likely be a Base Year Compensation (BYC) player for the limited purposes of any sign-and-trade deal, meaning that it would be very complicated to make a trade work under regular trade rules unless either/both teams had the cap room necessary to avoid salary matching requirements.

(2) The new sign-and-trade deals don't allow the player to make any more money than he could make by signing with the other team outright, so Dragic would have to want to be traded to a team without sufficient cap room to sign him.


As far as Jordan Hill is concerned, because the Rockets declined his team option back in January, Hill will become and UNRESTRICTED free agent this summer. The Lakers will still have his Bird rights; however, they cannot sign Hill to a deal starting at more than $3,632,527 (what Hill would have made had his fourth year team option been picked up).

 

Didn't the BYC restrictions mostly get eliminated in the new CBA? And doesn't it only apply to teams over the cap anyway, which the Rockets would not be, if I'm not mistaken?

Like the in-need-of-a-good-PG-Lakers?

 

Yes, most of the BYC rules got eliminated in the new CBA . . . except with respect to sign-and-trade deals. Now, instead of waiting a full year after signing a big new contract, the team only has to wait until the following January 15 to trade the "BYC" player.

And, yes, you are also correct that BYC rules would not PREVENT a trade to the extent that a team was sufficiently under the salary cap. However, this would require the Rockets to "lock themselves in" to having the necessary cap room to complete such a trade, which could leave the Rockets without the use of other salary cap exceptions (such as the MLE and BAE). I'm not saying that it means the Rockets COULDN'T do this. Just that it isn't a no-brainer that they'd want to.