Marshall Faulk Predicts Texans to Fall From the Playoffs.

It's brazen for any fanbase to consider a playoff berth a given (other than the Manning-era Colts or Brady-era Pats).

We could get knocked out. The Titans are good enough to be players in the division, and we can't be certain that Schaub, Johnson, and Foster are going to be injury free all season. As good as our D was last year, we still crumbled late with a half-speed Johnson and without Schaub. I don't think any of us want to picture a full season of that.

I love our chances though.

The defense won't have the same learning curve after so many players changed positions/roles in a shortened off season a year ago.

The defense is somehow deeper than a year ago (secondary aside).

The "creampuff schedule is now a hard schedule" myth is overblown:
At least 3 expected creampuff wins were losses last year (OAK, CAR, IND)
Everyone in the division has to play NE and GB, so that doesn't hurt our odds
We get BAL, but TEN has to play PIT and JAX has to play CIN, so that's another wash
We get DEN, but they're an unknown at this point. TEN is @SD, who should have a bounce back year. JAX has OAK, who was fairly tough a year ago

It's like every year - take care of your division, take care of business in your other games, be lucky in regards to injuries.

The team is poised to take 11 or 12 wins if (IF) they are healthy. But nothing's a given.

All that said, Marshall Faulk is a moron and poster child for modern sports coverage, with ESPN creating fake roundtable discussion by asking "experts" to take random sides and talk out of their rear end. See also: Bilas, Skip.

 

Yeah, this is a classic case of Marshall Faulk knowing jackchit about the Texans. He saw on the surface that we let go of some semi-recognizable names, and assumed we had nobody to back them up. Therefore, because of that, that means the team is doomed. While I certainly am not taking a playoff berth for granted, and like emjohn said, anything can happen with regards to injury, if you don't have the Texans as your prohibitive division favorite, then you're just a hater or a moron (or both).

 

....and given all the injuries they survived last year to still take the division (and give away the home finale), they're far better equipped to withstand injuries this time.

More depth on the D-Line
More depth at OLB
Yates surviving a trial by fire and is consequentially FAR more advanced than he has any reason to be
WR addressed in a huge way in the draft, with at least 4 prospects to help improve the corps
Ben Tate still behind Foster, a ridiculous luxury to have
Special Teams may be a little better with Hitman coming back and bringing in a kicker that can handle tough assignments like...kick offs. I'm not losing sleep over Martin replacing Jacoby.

The only real worrisome area is the O-Line, but the Texans at least covered their bases with backups at each position.

So we'll see. The Titans haven't made significant moves, but I suspect both Johnson and Locker will have better seasons, and they get Britt back as well (though he did just get a scope on the injured knee). Kendall Wright...well, we're all hoping for bust now (except for sic em fans).

 

That's a joke. We lost proven players and replaced them with Rookies. That's not depth, that's hope.

 

Who'd we lose on the D-Line? Crick is pure addition.

And I've got all the faith in the world that Mercilus 2012 will give us much more production than Mario 2011. We played 13 games with no real back up for Reed and Barwin, now we've got a blue chipper rotating in the mix.

 

The Titans lost Finnegan in FA, and didn't necessarily replace him (though the rookie from Clemson might be able to). They did little to shore up their OL. Locker barely played last year, but when he did he played well. At this point the starting QB is unknown.

 

Huh?? Who is gone from the D-Line?? We added depth with Crick. And as far as the OLBs go, sure, we lost Mario, but we lost him basically for 3/4 of the season LAST year too. We signed Bradie James, as well as drafting the leading sacker in the NCAA last year.....I understand that it's hopeful, but it's also depth. Brooks Reed is a year older now, and Connor Barwin is going to get an off-season with Wade.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7...-100-percent-committed-playing-2012-13-season

As PIT reloads (sorry, TEN), the Ravens (at Houston week 7) continue to get dubious news.

 

The Ravens would be fools to sign him to an extension. He's been Bob Sanders like with the injuries as of late... Well, not quite as bad as ole Bobby. But bad.

 

When you play both sides of the ball as well and consistent the Texans have shown they could this past season, it's hard to lose games other than by way of injury.

I'm not at all saying we're world beaters because we made the playoffs last year but when you've got as complete a team as the Texans do this coming year both on offense and defense, it'd be mighty hard not to win a division with rebuilding/younger teams.

 

At least he shows up for the playoffs.

 

You can see it as glass half full or glass half empty. There are many things going against the Texans.

1. AJ will be a year older and injury issues are still a concern.
2. The defense was among the best in the NFL, and it's hard to expect them to get better. But they can be worse
3. The running game was among the best in the NFL, and it's hard to expect them to get better. But they can be worse
4. AFC South all likely improved in the talent department more than the Texans. Last year's 5-1 record may turn into 4-2.
5. Schedule strength increased dramatically on paper, and likely in practice
6. Playoff contenders from last year all look to have improved, or at least not become much worse. So competition is still high.

I would say the Texans should get into the playoffs simply by virtue of being better than the Titans. But it could be a disappointing season if

 

Any team can find themselves in a nightmare season and fall 8 wins shy of expectations. Last year's Dream Team Eagles are a poster child for that. I haven't, and won't guarantee one thing - it's football, and things can turn on you in a flash.

And yes, clearly there are plenty of concerns.
Assuming Schaub comes back, good as new
Assuming Andre comes back, good as new
Assuming the new starters at RT and RG don't miss a beat
Assuming no unforeseen injuries (always a dandy, that one)
Assuming Kareem Jackson can hold his own with Allen gone
Assuming Casey can shine with Dreesen gone
etc

It's why I'll never predict the most optimistic scenarios. Fans always shade more towards what their team CAN do instead of allowing that things aren't going to break their way 100%.

But to your specific concerns:

1. Unlike last year, we've got 4 candidates vying to take two backup wide out positions, replacing stale Jacoby and the Derrick Mason-Bryant Johnson bum off the street. Importantly, their *should* be an injection of serious speed into the lineup - something no one behind Johnson was able to provide last season.

2. That does cover all the scenarios. But I would say this - balanced, serious defenses don't tend to come and go like fluke ones do. Pittsburgh, Baltimore, NYJ, and previously Minnesota - when those defenses got built, they didn't go away. SF was a surprise defense last year, I question if they can remain that elite going forward (similar to NO's championship D). But our defense is stacked at all 4 levels. I have a tough time seeing them drop out of the top 10.

3. The run game is going to depend both on the retooled line and the restoration of the passing attack. But I would take the bold stance to say that the run game and it's gaudy numbers have much less to do with our prospects than the passing game. Today's NFL has flipped from the past - you win through the air these days. Denver was the only playoff team to sneak a berth as a run-dependent offense. The Vikes have AP, the Titans have CJ, but neither are going to win without improvement in passing. I'd rather go without Foster than repeat the end of last year again.

4. IND and JAX didn't improve nearly enough to vie for 9 wins. TEN is a concern of mine, but they still have issues on both lines. I think their offense is going to hum, but the defense is looking mediocre. All we can discuss is "on paper", but they don't look like they've done enough to catch up, unless their offense explodes and ours sputters.

5. I've done this numerous times, but the strength of schedule is vastly overblown.
-Within the AFC-S, all teams have to face GB, NE, CHI, NYJ, etc (AFC-E, NFC-N)

-The Texans host BAL, but Titans get PIT and Jags get CIN. At worst, that's a wash, and it's not outlandish to think the Texans might end up getting the weakest of those 3 AFC-N teams.

-The Texans get Den, so cross your fingers regarding Peyton, but Ten gets SD and Jax gets Oak. Looks like Texans get the toughest squad, but it's a wash if TEN and JAX can't pull out wins either (plausible).

-As it stands, the Texans open up ranked #29 for Strength of Schedule, listed below TEN (28), JAX (t-14), and Indy (t-14). This only means so much, as every year Offseason SoS is a weak predictor of true SoS.

-Finally, our creampuff Schedule last year didn't pan out to be creampuff. We lost at home to Oak, Car, and on the road at IND - all expected to be sure fire wins. The injuries upended the weak schedule, to say the least, we gave away the home finale, and still walked away with 10 wins. It's dubious to say those 10 wins were the byproduct of an easy schedule.

6. The only competition that truly matters is within our own division. Take it and then worry about the rest in January. Giants are a great example for that. Denver's better, but they're loaded with question marks. I could see them romp as easily as I can see SD resurging in the division.
NE's better, but the defense needs to rebound in a very big way.
Cincy is rising fast.
Pit did a scary good job reloading in the draft - but Mendenhall is a big question mark.
Baltimore's not having a good offseason, bad news for them in that division.
Tenn will be better, at least on offense
NYJ....could go either way.
SD - we'll have to see. I suspect last year was a fluke for Rivers.
Who knows with Oak or KC.

 

well some of those things you could say that about every team:

1. what if Andrew Luck isnt the big QB that everybody is saying.
2. Maurice Jones Drew was the leading rusher in the league, its hard to expect he does the same.
3. NE got in the superbowl with a terrible defense, who knows if they can do it again.
4. Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are one year older, and they will lose Suggs for at least 3 months, if not the full season
5. kenny britt got another surgery recently, so who knows how is he is going to play.
6. like emjohn said colts, jaguars, and titans will play against afc east (NE, NYJ, BUF) and against the NFC north (bears, packers, lions), so there is not a real disadavantage.

 

Crick is going to be a stud. That was our best pick in the draft, considering where we got him.

 

What a Faulkhead.

 

from espnboston:

Between Brooks Reed, Connor Barwin and Whitney Mercilus, the Texans have arguably the most promising trio of young pass rushers in the NFL, which is a reflection of strong drafting in recent years. Mercilus, the 2012 first-round pick out of Illinois, will initially line up behind Barwin at the "Will" in Wade Phillips' defense, while projecting to play extensively in sub packages. The Texans, even after losing Mario Williams in free agency, should be one of the top contenders in the AFC.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...722485/quick-hit-thoughts-around-nfl-pats-104

 

^ :grin: LOL @ no mention of JJ Watt. I LOL'd... seriously.

LOLWatt?

 

He isn't necessarily a pass rusher in this system like the OLBers are.

 

http://mcubed.net/nfl/sbdiv.shtml

Not sure if serious? AFC south contributes some of the weakest teams in football yearly. Not news