Probability favors failure is precisely the point I am making. Odds are, Gose is going to fail too and just hasn't done so yet, while Wallace has already achieved his failure. Otis Nixon's typical year is exactly what Jordan Schafer's year this year looks like. I am not going to lose sleep over losing a future Schafer.
Wednesday Stories Dallas Keuchel was being Dallas Keuchel against Las Vegas. But was it enough for him to get the win and snap OKC's slide? Lancaster was the only other team in action tonight, and they looked to try and salvage something in their series against Bakersfield. Recap Dallas Keuchel was excellent for OKC against Vegas yesterday, throwing 7 1/3 shutout innings, allowing 5 hits, and striking out 5. Using the Bill James formula to calculate a pitcher's game score, he earned a 75. He was in position to earn a win as Fernando Martinez went deep in the 7th for his 6th homer of the season. That would be all the run support he got. In the 8th though, he ran into the wall, allowing runners on 2nd and 3rd with 1 out. Luckily, Xavier Cedeno saved the day by stranding them. Unfortunately for Cedeno, he allowed Adeiny Hechavarria to get on with a single, then threw the ball away trying to pick him off. As a result, Hechavarria advanced to 3rd, and Cedeno allowed the game-tying sac fly to Travis Snider that tied the game at 1. Jose Valdez came in and limited the 51s to the lone run. The Keystone Kops act on defense continued into the 10th, as Valdez threw the ball away on a sac bunt attempt from Ricardo Nanita, resulting in a 1st and 2nd situation with no outs. Chris Woodward moved both of those runners over, then Yan Gomes came in to score on a fielder's choice and a subsequent error by Jimmy Paredes. The Redhawks were quickly dispatched in the bottom half of the 10th, and as a result, they were slapped with their 7th straight loss, losing this one 2-1 in 10. Corpus had the day off. Frisco comes in to town for a series starting tonight. Lancaster was the only other team playing last night, and allowed Bakersfield to score 4 runs in the 7th to turn a 4-3 lead into a 7-4 loss. George Springer went 3-4 with an RBI single and a solo homer in the 5th, his 4th of the season. Telvin Nash went 2-5 with a double and a sac fly, and Erik Castro went 1-3 and drew a bases-loses walk in the 6th. David Martinez went 6 2/3, allowing 6 runs on 8 hits, striking out 6. 2 of those runs were inherited runners allowed to score by Jorge De Leon, who allowed another runner that was charged as an unearned run to Jose Trinidad to score. Martinez recorded a score of 32. Lexington also had a day off. They will welcome Hagerstown to their place tonight. Three Stars 3. Fernando Martinez, RF, Oklahoma City 1-3, HR (6) Lone source of offense in a really tough loss. 2. George Springer, CF, Lancaster 3-4, HR (4), 2 RBI Springer has really caught fire at the plate as of late. Still needs to cut down the K rate a little, but as much as I harp on his volatility on offense, I laud his bouncebackability. 1. Dallas Keuchel, P, Oklahoma City ND, 7.1 IP, 4 H, 5 K, Game Score 75 Keuchel being Keuchel. He looked as if he was in control all game long. Shame he didn't get the win for his efforts. Goat Goes to the OKC defense for committing some critical errors that eventually led to the loss against Las Vegas. Looking Ahead OKC continues their series with Las Vegas, as Jordan Lyles will oppose Tim Redding. First pitch will be at 7:05. Corpus opens up a 4 game set with Frisco starting at 7:05. Jose Cisnero gets the call and will be opposed by Barret Loux. Lancaster will be looking to avoid a sweep at the hands of Bakersfield, and they'll send out Bobby Doran to stop the bleeding. First pitch at 7 Pacific. The Blaze will go with Mark Pope. Jonas Dufek gets the start for Lexington in their series opener with Hagerstown, who will go with Nathan Karns. First pitch will be at 7:05 Eastern.
Certainly they would be disappointed if Gose ends up only being Otis Nixon. Gose very well could end up being a faster version of Schafer. When Schafer was a top prospect, he was actually better than Gose, thanks to a higher contact rate. Whether it was steroids or the wrist injury, Schafer's power vanished, and now his strikeout rate is ridiculously high. Ultimately it doesn't matter. He won't be wearing an Astros uni, but George Springer will be.
Not sure which thread it was, but someone the other day asked who we had at AAA that could come up and do what Happ's been doing...I'm pretty sure that Keuchel could (or will) be that guy. Hopefully he keeps it up because he definitely has more upside than Happ. Not #2 starter material, but definitely #3 or #4 if the trend continues.
He could step in and do fine. But, Keuchel doesn't have the stuff to be a #2. Nowhere near a #2. He's a command lefty that only throws in the high 80s and touches 91. He's got a slow curve that I would estimate to be in the low-mid 70s or something to that extent. Absolute best case is a 4 or long relief.
Great interview with Nick Tropeano. There's a jam in terms of starting pitching at Corpus, but I think he could step into the Lancaster rotation and help them right away. Also, I believe that he has the mentality to succeed in such an extreme pitching environment. R.J. Alaniz and Bobby Doran have that same mentality, so I'm willing to bet that Tropeano does too. http://www.milb.com/news/article.js...860268&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&tcid=tw_share
Honestly, is that really different than Wandy? Wandy though had much better strikeout numbers. Maybe he can be Jamie Moyer... I've never seen the guy pitch. Just know he gets groundballs.
Good question. Keuchel's numbers really aren't too far off from Wandy's minor league numbers. Keuchel's command is probably a little better. Baseball America likens Keuchel to Doug Davis, in that they're both good-sized finesse lefties (Keuchel 6'3", 200, Davis 6'4", 215). I think Keuchel could turn out to be a little better than Davis.
Lancaster game notes: http://www.milb.com/documents/2012/05/07/30649686/5/Game_Notes_5_10.pdf For some reason, I thought they were still playing Bakersfield tonight.
Thursday Stories Jordan Lyles in control. Was his effort enough to lead OKC to a victory? Corpus welcomed Frisco to town, and were promptly run out of their own ballpark. Bobby Doran took the mound for Lancaster, looking to build on his impressive start to the season. How did he fare against Lake Elsinore? Zach Johnson had a great day at the plate for Lexington, and one Legends reliever was absolutely filthy. Recap OKC got outhit by Las Vegas 8-4, but they scored the only run in the game. That came off the bat of Brett Wallace, who took Tim Redding for a ride in the 3rd for his 4th homer of the season. Brian Bixler went 2-4. Wallace's homer was the only extra-base hit for either side. Jordan Lyles tossed 6 2/3 shutout innings, allowing 8 hits, walked 1, and struck out 6. He also induced 10 groundouts, 1 flyout, and the defense turned 2 double plays. Xavier Cedeno and Jose Valdez closed the door on the 51s. Corpus began their series with Frisco quite poorly, getting mauled 10-2. Austin Wates went 2-4. So did Jose Martinez, who doubled and hit a solo shot in the 6th for his 4th homer of the season. Ryan McCurdy had a triple and came home on Andy Simunic's sac fly in the 5th. Jose Cisnero labored through 3 1/3 innings, allowing 3 runs on 6 hits, walking 2 and striking out 2. He needed 79 pitches to get 10 outs. Arcenio Leon (1.2 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, K), Alex Sogard (IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 3 BB), and Erick Abreu (who really shouldn't be in the system anymore) all got roughed up in relief. Lancaster fell in their series opener against Lake Elsinore by a score of 5-1. Enrique Hernandez's RBI double in the 2nd was the only scoring play for the Jethawks. George Springer had a triple, Ben Orloff was 2-3, Alex Todd was 0-3 in his return to Lancaster, and Telvin Nash went 0-4 with a hat trick. Bobby Doran got tagged with the loss. He went 5, allowing 2 runs on 7 hits, walked 1, and struck out 5. The Storm tacked on 3 runs in the 9th at Kirk Clark's expense; 2 of those runs were earned. Lexington welcomed Hagerstown to their digs at Whitaker Bank Ballpark for the beginning of a 4-game series. And on "Bring Your Dog to the Ballpark" night, the Legends came out on top 6-3. Zach Johnson went 2-4 with a solo homer in the 1st, his 5th of the season. His homer tied the game at 1 after the Suns opened up with 1 in the top half. That wasn't his biggest hit of the evening. I'll get to that momentarily. After a sac fly in the 4th gave Hagerstown a 2-1 lead, John Hinson answered with an RBI single. Hinson finished the game 2-4 with a run scored, and has been on a tear since getting the call to Lexington, hitting .400 so far. After the Suns jumped back on top 3-2 after the 6th, the Legends broke out for 4 in the 7th, which turned out to be the difference. Jordan Scott drew a bases-loaded walk to tie the game, then Johnson poked a 2-run single through the infield that gave the Legends the lead. One batter later, Matt Duffy provided the cherry with a sac fly. Drew Muren went 2-4 with a double and a run scored. Jimmy Howick and Mike Kvasnicka added a hit apiece. Jonas Dufek went 5 2/3, allowing 3 runs on 7 hits, walked 3, and fanned 3. Murilo Gouvea was the first man out of the bullpen and immediately rendered Hagerstown's offense useless, putting up 2 1/3 perfect innings of relief, striking out 5. All 5 of Gouvea's strikeouts occurred consecutively, with 4 looking, and 1 swinging. Dayan Diaz allowed a walk in the 9th, but shut the door for his 4th save of the season, striking out 2. Starting Pitcher Game Scores Jordan Lyles: 63 Bobby Doran: 49 Jonas Dufek: 41 Jose Cisnero: 36 Lyles' 63 doesn't really do him justice. He allowed 8 hits, but they were all singles. He was locked in all night. Three Stars 3. Zach Johnson, 1B, Lexington 2-4, HR (5), 3 RBI Johnson has had a very impressive start despite his age and league. He had cooled off a bit, but he's been Lexington's big run producer all season. Clutch hit put the Legends on top, and it turned out to be the winning hit. 2. Jordan Lyles, P, Oklahoma City W, 6.2 IP, 8 H, BB, 6 K, 63 Game Score Stellar performance. Again, that 63 score is shortchanging him. None of those hits he allowed went for extra bases, and he didn't allow a run. 1. Murilo Gouvea, P, Lexington W, 2.1 IP, 5 K I really wanted to give Lyles the First Star for his excellent start, but I couldn't overlook Gouvea's dominance out of the bullpen for Lexington. When you strike out 5 batters in a row, you are locked in. I really like Lexington's bullpen. If I'm an opposing batter, I wouldn't want to face Jason Chowning, Dayan Diaz, or Gouvea. They have the stuff to make hitters look completely foolish. I think all 3 of them should be on the move soon. Honorable Mentions Brett Wallace, 3B, OKC: His homer was the difference. Enough said. Jose Martinez, 2B, Corpus Christi: A bright spot in an otherwise grim night for the Hooks. Dayan Diaz, P, Lexington: Filthy! Goats Jose Cisnero, with his 3rd straight subpar outing since his 12-strikeout game on April 24, is Thursday's Goat. At this point, he might have to look over his shoulder a bit, as R.J. Alaniz and Bobby Doran are gaining on him fast. Sharing the dishonor with Cisnero is Telvin Nash for another hat trick. In his defense, he's been seeing exponentially more breaking balls. Just gotta make the adjustments. Looking Ahead OKC and Las Vegas will be concluding their series. First pitch will be at 7:05. Henry Sosa gets the start against Aaron Laffey. Corpus and Frisco are at it again in game 2. First pitch will also take place at 7:05. Brett Oberholtzer will be the starter. Frisco goes with Jake Brigham. Let's play 2 in Lancaster! The Jethawks and Lake Elsinore go at it in the first game at 5:00 Pacific. Game 2 is a makeup that was originally supposed to be played on April 13. Game 2 will begin 75 minutes after the completion of Game 1. Tyson Perez and Matt Andriese will be the starters in Game 1. Donn Roach will be Lake Elsinore's starter in Game 2, while Lancaster's spot is to be determined. Lexington and Hagerstown will play in the 2nd game of their Thursday + Weekend series. First pitch is at 7:05 Eastern. Nick Tropeano will be taking the mound for the Legends, and opposing him will be former Kentucky star Alex Meyer.
Hmmm. I actually know a copy editor at the Chronicle. tellitlikeitis would you be interested in something like this? I wouldn't bring it up to him if not. I think it'd be a fantastic addition.
Thanks guys. I'm not the greatest at this, but I try. Heh. I still feel that I have some catching up to do in terms of actually assessing talent. I sort of look at the box scores a little too much for my liking, since I've never been to a Minor League game. I'm just a bored college kid who writes this for fun. Rocketman, depending on how the next couple of weeks (or so) unfolds for me, I may be working for the Chron in a different capacity. I'll keep it in mind.
Never been to a minor league game? I guess in Houston it is a bit of a travel for you. I went to watch the Braves A-affiliate (also the Braves) when they were in Macon, GA, but they moved to Rome, GA several years ago. I'd love for another team to come to Macon so I can go to games again.
George Springer, in the #2 spot in Game 1 of Lancaster's doubleheader against Lake Elsinore, just launched his 5th homer of the season. The opposite-field shot puts Jethawks up 7-2 in the 6th.
i haven't either, and i've attended probably 300+ stros games in my life. if the skeeters even counts, i guess that will be my first.
Unrelated question... I'm going to be in Houston in June and going to the a Stros game against the Cards. Is it easy to switch seats, or are there plenty of ushers checking tickets?
