Except Gose and Wallace are incredibly different players. Gose may not make it, but unlike Wallace, he doesn't need to be a great hitter to make it because he has other tools.
Redding and Saarloos were incredibly different pitchers too. It was an analoy, with the similarity solely being that one is a bit older and has already been found out to be a sham...the other is just not to that point in his career arc though. Gose will be there soon as a bust. Gose has a ceiling of Tom Goodwin. I am not going to lose sleep over Tom Goodwin.
Right.. Except Gose plays centerfield, Wallace 1st base, Gose' game is predicated on speed and defense, and Wallace's game is based on power and OB%... So yeah, other than that, they are the same. Gose may turnout mediocre, most speed guys turnout mediocre, but the argument that Gose will turnout as useless as Wallace can be used for ANY player.
While I generally agree with the sentiment that the hand-wringing over Gose is a bit premature, he's displayed substantive more power potential than Tom Goodwin. I would argue his speed/power potential seems like it is most similar to our most recent first rounder, George Springer (though he seems to have a leg up in the speed department).
If Gose's bat can be at least average, there's no doubt in my mind that he'll be a big-league CF for at least 10 years. Blazing speed (if he was called up today, he'd probably be one of the 5 fastest guys in the majors), cannon arm (was clocked at 97 as a high school pitcher), and excellent range (maybe a product of his speed at the moment). He'll be 21 for almost the entire season, so he's got a couple years of physical projection left. Gose won't be a 40-40 guy, but I think he'll be good enough for 12-15 homers and 40+ steals every season as a legitimate leadoff threat. Dallas Keuchel is in action right now. Just finished a scoreless 1st. http://www.iheart.com/#/live/3066/?autoplay=true
OPS in the Minors Goodwin - .710 Gose - .717 Upton - .844 If Gose is supposed to be BJ Upton 2.0, then Wallace is Mo Vaughn 2.0. Gose is Tom Goodwin or Otis Nixon. And, again it doesn't matter if Wallace is a closer and Gose is a short stop..that's not the comparison being made. The comparison is being made as to the type of prospect they are. Wallace was right where Gose is now two years ago. Baseball America top 75 player..soon to be shown as a sham.
Upton has vastly under-performed his talent in the majors. Amazing how you are judging a player purely on OPS in the minors. Not surprising though. Would you feel better if I compared Gose to Jimmy Rollins? Jimmy Rollins had an OPS of .711 in the minors. Obviously Jimmy Rollins = Anthony Gose = Tom Goodwin
You stick with your predictions, and I will stick with mine. We can come back in ten years and hash this out.
My prediction is that he may be a success or he may flop. Neither would surprise me. You just dismiss him with no basis for doing so. The only red flag about him is that he strikes out too much, which most young players do.
I am just giving my assessment of what I feel he will become. What do you feel he will become? Anyone can say he either may make it or may not. I want to know what you personally think about Gose.
Ahem.... George Springer just hit his 4th homer of the season. Lancaster and Bakersfield are tied at 3 in the 5th.
Comparing Wallace and Gose is apples and oranges. At the time of the trade the Astros needed a first baseman with the impending trade of Berkman to the Yankees. It was reported that Ed Wade really wanted Singleton (who we would get a year later for Pence). The Toronto GM wanted Gose in a prior trade with Philly, so the trade was made Wallace (future 1st baseman) for Gose (converted pitcher to OF with high ceiling). Would it be nice if Gose was in the Astros' system? Sure it would. It would have been even nicer if Wallace had worked out as the "hitting machine" Ed Wade labeled him at the time of the trade. Almost two years later, Gose is seen as a good leadoff guy with speed, great arm, (yes the K rate is high, but as said earlier that is what youngsters do in the minors), while Wallace is still in AAA as a 25 year old who has just switched positions (to 3rd base) and looks like AAAA player. If Gose becomes a servicable OF for Toronto, then I'd say he will have the better career over Wallace.
I really want to see Springer do well and make it to AA Corpus this season (though that may be pushing him too much).
As do I, but Springer's been pretty erratic offensively. He went 0-5 with 5 Ks one night then went 4-4 with 2 triples the very next game. I'm very encouraged about his defense... he already looks like a plus defender. I think he'll be in Lancaster for the foreseeable future in order to get more consistent with the bat. Also, the outfield situation doesn't look very favorable for a promotion, as every regular outfield player in Corpus and OKC have done rather well.
Inconsistency swinging the bat was one of the knocks on Springer coming out of UConn. There are times where he gets away from the good mechanics he showed during his sophomore and junior season. Springer will get pull happy, but he does have a good eye and can draw walks. Despite the OF situation in Corpus or OKC, IMO Springer could make the jump to AA if he continues to progress well at Lancaster.
In hindsight, Wallace had been a top prospect as a 3B, and his AAA numbers weren't all that impressive given his age and playing 1B (though not terrible). I think he's lost confidence now, and is at the very least done with the Astros. Probably needs to go elsewhere and see if he can get it figured out.
I think he is very high ceiling, but low floor. My guess is he will have a 10 year career, with some good seasons sprinkled between mediocre ones. Edit: Important to remember is that most players don't become successes, so the probability favors failure.
10 straight years of 40+ steals, including a high of 71 base thefts and a .371 obp. He stole more bases in the 90's than any other player in major league baseball. Great defensive center fielder and lead-off for the Atlanta Braves, he was a very key contributor on championship teams.
