I'm looking at the top 8 picks of the last 5 years. That's 40 players. How many became stars. 1. Derrick Rose 2. Kevin Durant 3. Kevin Love (*) 4. Blake Griffin * = may not be considered a star by some. So 4 out of 40 players. There are other very good players, but only those 4 seem to be franchise players that are stars in the league at this point. It is always risky to count on drafting a star. If you trade for one or sign one as a free agent you have an idea of what you are getting, and it seems less risky.
What's the odds of getting Rose or Durant in a trade for Bulls or thunders? Less than 1 out of one million? If there is a lottery with odd like 10%, I'd go for it at all cost.
Not sure where all that upside was when he led the team on a season-crushing losing streak. Guess it must be Lowry's fault.
I don't know if it gets any more subjective then this, in who you deem a "star" player. Is there a reason as to why you only decided to choose a sample size of 8 years and the top 8 picks, but sure, we'll play by your rules These are the top 40 players from the last 5 drafts: 2011: Kyrie Irving * Derrick Williams Enes Kanter Tristan Thompson Jonas Valanciunas Jan Vesely Bismack Biyombo Brandon Knight 2010 John Wall * Evan Turner Derrick Favors Wesley Johnson DeMarcus Cousins * Ekpe Udoh Greg Monroe Al-Farouq Aminu 2009 Blake Griffin * Hasheem Thabeet James Harden * Tyreke Evans * Ricky Rubio Jonny Flynn Stephen Curry Jordan Hill 2008 Derrick Rose * Michael Beasley O.J. Mayo Russell Westbrook * Kevin Love * Danilo Gallinari * Eric Gordon Joe Alexander Top 2007 Greg Oden Kevin Durant * Al Horford Mike Conley Jeff Green Yi Jianlian Corey Brewer Brandan Wright I'm not sure why you chose your sample size to be the top 8 picks, seeing as how we haven't been drafting higher than 14 in the last I don't know how many drafts, and I'm why you chose 5 years, (I'm guessing because it probably "better supports" your argument) but by just looking at this list there are 11 players I would take over anybody we currently have on our team and I have placed a star by their names. Also, the jury is still out for some of the players on this list as they haven't played in enough games as an NBA player to properly grade their ceilings as NBA players. If you a look at the drafts that preceded the one's that you chose, while there are some busts, there are is also some serious "star" power on those lists: 2006 (Top 8 "Stars")- LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy (retired), Rudy Gay 2005 (Top 8 "Stars")- Chris Paul, Deron Williams 2004 (Top 8 "Stars")- Dwight Howard, Luol Deng 2003 (Top 8 "Stars")- LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh These are simply lists of players that I would have taken over anything on the Rockets current roster. It would have been better if you had chosen the Top 14 picks over a larger range of years to make your case, but you can't deny the fact that a good majority of the players you see playing in All-Star games every single year happen to be on these lists. The thing you have to remember is that getting a player via Free Agency and though trades is a lot easier SAID than DONE. Just ask Morey. We've pretty much gone 0-3 over the last 3 seasons in Free Agency and Trades and we have absolutely nothing to show for. We are pretty much where we started; probably worse (seems as if we might be picking 13th this year). The Rockets need to change up their strategy and go for a player that is top shelf talent. You aren't going anywhere in this league without one of those guys. There isn't any point in throwing money a B-List Stars like Andre Igoudala, Pau Gasol, or Danny Granger when 1) You are so far from contention and 2) These players on either nearing or on the wrong side of 30 and have already maxed out as players. More and more stars are gravitating towards teams that are loading up on talent simply because they recognize that this is where the league is headed. You have teams like Miami, Boston, both LAs, and OKC loading up on star players because that's what it takes to win in this league. Sadly, the league awards teams that are either really good or simply horrific (see Charlotte, via the draft) and there honestly isn't any benefit to being the "kings of mediocrity" that is the Rockets. The Rockets are better served taking their chances through the Draft and there is absolutely no doubt about it.
I don't know if it gets any more subjective then this, in who you deem a "star" player. Is there a reason as to why you only decided to choose a sample size of (EDIT:5 years) and the top 8 picks, but sure, we'll play by your rules These are the top 40 players from the last 5 drafts: 2011: Kyrie Irving * Derrick Williams Enes Kanter Tristan Thompson Jonas Valanciunas Jan Vesely Bismack Biyombo Brandon Knight 2010 John Wall * Evan Turner Derrick Favors Wesley Johnson DeMarcus Cousins * Ekpe Udoh Greg Monroe Al-Farouq Aminu 2009 Blake Griffin * Hasheem Thabeet James Harden * Tyreke Evans * Ricky Rubio Jonny Flynn Stephen Curry Jordan Hill 2008 Derrick Rose * Michael Beasley O.J. Mayo Russell Westbrook * Kevin Love * Danilo Gallinari * Eric Gordon Joe Alexander Top 2007 Greg Oden Kevin Durant * Al Horford Mike Conley Jeff Green Yi Jianlian Corey Brewer Brandan Wright I'm not sure why you chose your sample size to be the top 8 picks, seeing as how we haven't been drafting higher than 14 in the last I don't know how many drafts, and I'm why you chose 5 years, (I'm guessing because it probably "better supports" your argument) but by just looking at this list there are 11 players I would take over anybody we currently have on our team and I have placed a star by their names. Also, the jury is still out for some of the players on this list as they haven't played in enough games as an NBA player to properly grade their ceilings as NBA players. If you a look at the drafts that preceded the one's that you chose, while there are some busts, there are is also some serious "star" power on those lists: 2006 (Top 8 "Stars")- LaMarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy (retired), Rudy Gay 2005 (Top 8 "Stars")- Chris Paul, Deron Williams 2004 (Top 8 "Stars")- Dwight Howard, Luol Deng 2003 (Top 8 "Stars")- LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh These are simply lists of players that I would have taken over anything on the Rockets current roster. It would have been better if you had chosen the Top 14 picks over a larger range of years to make your case, but you can't deny the fact that a good majority of the players you see playing in All-Star games every single year happen to be on these lists. The thing you have to remember is that getting a player via Free Agency and though trades is a lot easier SAID than DONE. Just ask Morey. We've pretty much gone 0-3 over the last 3 seasons in Free Agency and Trades and we have absolutely nothing to show for. We are pretty much where we started; probably worse (seems as if we might be picking 13th this year). The Rockets need to change up their strategy and go for a player that is top shelf talent. You aren't going anywhere in this league without one of those guys. There isn't any point in throwing money a B-List Stars like Andre Igoudala, Pau Gasol, or Danny Granger when 1) You are so far from contention and 2) These players on either nearing or on the wrong side of 30 and have already maxed out as players. More and more stars are gravitating towards teams that are loading up on talent simply because they recognize that this is where the league is headed. You have teams like Miami, Boston, both LAs, and OKC loading up on star players because that's what it takes to win in this league. Sadly, the league awards teams that are either really good or simply horrific (see Charlotte, via the draft) and there honestly isn't any benefit to being the "kings of mediocrity" that is the Rockets. The Rockets are better served taking their chances through the Draft and there is absolutely no doubt about it.
Correction: Forgot to star both Eric Gordon and Al Horford as players I would take over anything currently have bringing that list to 13. Pretty much, 1 out of 3 players drafted in the Top 8 over the course of the last 5 years are players I would take over any player currently on our roster.
I just picked 5 years at random. I chose 8 players because a high draft pick would be the purpose for tanking. My criteria for a star would be a player that isn't a second or third star on a team like Gasol is for the Lakers, but a player that teams will anchor their franchise around. Of course part of that has to do with marketability of the player as well. I will say that players like Roy who had to retire shows one of the reasons banking on lotto picks to help the team more risky.
The Roy argument isn't a good one as there are about 20 other cases that point the other direction. You can argue that trading for a player presents the same exact risk (see Tracy McGrady). A player's durability issue has nothing to do with where he is drafted and is irrelevant to the argument of whether or not drafting a player is risky. Whether or not a player gets injured or not is a risk that presents itself REGARDLESS of whether or not a player is drafted. There are many benefits to picking higher in the draft as 1) Potential of obtaining a star-caliber player is higher and 2) Using the higher pick as an ASSET for potential trades (either obtaining a coveted player or moving up in the draft), to name a few. The Rockets have to change it up at some point or else we'll be running in circles for a pretty damn long time.
Any player could have their career ruined or lessened by injury, but an established NBA player has an injury record of note to look at and evaluate as part of any trade or FA signing. A college player doesn't have the same type of record.
This isn't true. Sometimes freak injuries just happen. You can point to guys like Shaun Livingston, Tracy McGrady, Ron Harper (back in the day), and Blake Griffin to name a few. If ANYTHING, the chances of getting injured are more likely to happen as the player obtains more mileage and it's simple wear and tear. Gerg Oden for instance had a pretty checkered injury history and it translated in the NBA as for a case like Carl Landry who tore both his ACLs in HS and college is doing just fine. Honestly, who would have known that Brandon Roy would have his career cut short by degenerative knee problems? Sometimes these are things that you don't see coming.
The thing to remember here is players don't just start playing basketball when they enter the league. They've been playing basketball their whole lives. If a player has SERIOUS injury issues, they would already be black-listed by teams. Sometimes freak injuries happen and as is the case for a good number of players in the NBA, they aren't able to recover as a result of that. However, I would like to emphasize that a player's durability has NOTHING to do with how high he is drafted, if at all.
I agree and stated that a freak injury could happen at any time. The college schedule has fewer games and they take place over a shorter period of time. The wear and tear will be different in college than in the NBA. But I agree that you can never know for sure. I also agree that players with problems in college will be known about before they enter the draft.
Even if it was in the best interest for the team to tank, I doubt that Morey would publicly announce it as it is punishable by the league. Just Saying...
cooliobob, I would star Monroe and Favors as players I would take over anyone currently on the roster.
Here's a good read about the Washington Nationals, who are set to be a powerhouse for the next few years. One part that pertains to the current Rockets situation: It's going to be interesting to see what Morey can do between now and the start of next season. While I'm still not completely sold on tanking, I'd love to see what DM could do with a 1-5 pick.
I actually am a big fan of those guys as I think Monroe is a solid front court player and Favors has a tremendous amount of potential, however, for whatever reason hasn't really had the chance to showcase his talents.
I'm talking about as soon as the lockout was over or before the lockout started when they couldve traded scola. Indy at the end of last year wanted a vet pf to go with hibbert. If you go read some of my post, I said this then. I wouldve given up scola just for the flexibility and the players behind him. The rockets waited,west was signed, and then they had scola in the gasol deal.
They should have let him walk to Jersey, when he signed with the Nets. Rockets needed to rebuild before the lockout.
