You could use the record for an entire decade instead. In the 2000's, the Rockets were 8th in the league with 55% wins, and the Bobcats were the 5th worst with 36% wins.
the rockets have been in the league for 45 years. Was gifted, Yao, Steve Francis. The bobcats have been in the league what 9 years? In the one year that they did what the rockets due every year, namely assemble a veteran talent they went to the playoffs. How hard was that to do? The rockets failed with far more talent than the bobcats have ever had, but now they are horribly managed and should be punished while the league should gift the rockets Anthony Davis????? Give me a break.
I agree with the bold - It should be measured by the number of opportunities you have to alter the course of the franchise. Its hard to do that immediately after a trade / draft. Morey hasnt had the opportunity to spend an early #1. He's been saddled with #26 (Brooks), #14 (Patterson) , #14(Morris) and ..... this years pick which is more likely than not to be .....#13-14. Point blank , Morey is treading water with picks you would ecpect him to do so with. Les Alexander wont allow him to cut costs and put a poor product on the floor to reach the ultimate goal which is to aquire a franchise altering player. Les would rather be #15 than have a top 3 pick as it keeps hope alive that they can compete immediately for a Larry O'Brien Trophy ..... no matter how long the odds. Just look at how they have been officiated over the past two seasons (-K-Marts flops) and look at hte fact that they havew 3 rotation players who are in the bottom of the league in getting to the line when hammered while guy's like sex offender Bryant get to the line at will.
The Rockets are the 6th youngest team in the NBA. The Bobcats are the 7th youngest team. What assemblage of veterans are you referring to?
If your the worst team this year you should get the first pick not in this year's draft but the next. In other words the draft order is a year behind. -This way a team can not purposely tank to get a proven 1 year star college player like (A. Davis) -Your team would not benefit for the next season, meaning it is like a penalty for putting out a poor product. I don't know this might be a little confusing. Have not really thought it all the way through but something like this could work. It would never be allowed but trying to think outside the box anyhow.
the facts are that the rockets start 3 veteran players to the bobcats: 1. The bobcats have 4 over 30 players that, only one of which plays. Also, at the time the chart you are referring to was made, the bobcats had 5 over 30 players and the rockets didn't have Camby. Once you account for this the bobcats and the rockets are on two different trajectories with veteran players in that Scola, Martin, Dally, Camby can all play. Whereas, Najera, Moon, Diop, carroll, can't.
Your example of the Bobcats is exactly the problem with the current system. Under the current system, yes the Bobcats are better managed because tanking is really the only thing encouraged. Developing role players, signing efficient contracts, and establishing a winning culture are all secondary to whether you have a star player. That's an unhealthy system.
I'm with J on this. You give all teams an equal shot. the badly managed teams will still pick a kwame or a morrison. We can give all the solutions we want but the commissar sees his league has no issues. Until the have-nots revolt, his ideals will live on. I just want to slap the taste out his mouth. <iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/_JxrVj809Rc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
becoming a the best loser is not establishing a winning culture. if you are going to reward establishing a winning culture the rockets would never get the number 1 pick. It should go to the spurs. see, but you don't want that.
You're taking a semantic position. Of course the Spurs shouldn't get the #1 pick. This was a sensible thread related to the idea you originally posted. Why do you want to turn this into a Rocket-bashing thread?
Teams would rest their stars for a good portion of the season and bring them back. I don't think that home court advantage would be more important than getting a kevin durant or derrick rose in the draft
I like this A LOT more than the current system. It's simple and un-contrived. Of course you could have more teams tanking to be that 14th team, which could now net you a high draft pick. Hell, I have so much distaste for the tanking strategy that I'd be fine if all 30 spots were picked this way, but I digress. If the above could be done in tandem with hard cap in place and possibly modifying the rookie pay scale or eliminating it...that would at least add a little more pain to getting a high draft pick instead of it just being a complete gift.
If they somehow combined this with bigger bonus pool money that included standard shared for the GM and coaching staff, then I think the incentive to tank would be even less. For instance, if you gave every coach that made the playoffs an additional $500,000 for making the playoffs, and you gave the assistant coaches an additional $100,000, and you gave the players an additional $250,000 for making the playoffs, then you gave then similar incentives for each level of the playoffs they made, it would be serious enough money to get players, coaches, and front offices to compete and play hard every night. 1. Deincentivize making the lottery. 2. Higher incentives for making the playoffs
Okay, here's my solution to tanking. Buckle in. One of the ideas Truehoop floated was to grade on a curve. That is to say, take an expected number of wins from team A, take their actual wins, and give the best picks to the teams that overperformed. This idea was terrible. It did things like award the 7th pick to the Spurs and the 30th to the Bobcats based on their respective over/underperforming. But it wasn't terrible because rewarding overachieving through the draft is a bad idea: it just shouldn't be the sole basis. SO, let's say for a minute that there's no lottery (but keep in mind this works equally well with the lottery system with any distribution of ping-pong balls that floats your boat). How do we determine who overperformed or underperformed? We use the most well-researched, carefully-crafted performance predictor out there: Vegas odds. (No, seriously. Those guys set the over-unders VERY carefully, if they screw up they're going to get reamed by smart basketball fans). In short, here's a possible way the final W/L marks look, the Vegas projections, and their simple application to create a measurement of each team's overachievement or lack thereof. Spoiler <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="362"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:6217;width:128pt" width="170"> <col style="width:48pt" span="3" width="64"> </colgroup><tbody><tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td class="xl65" style="height:15.0pt;width:128pt" height="20" width="170">Team </td> <td style="width:48pt" width="64">Over/Under </td> <td style="width:48pt" width="64">Wins (projected) </td> <td style="width:48pt" width="64">Success </td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">TOR</td> <td align="right">15.5</td> <td align="right">23</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">148%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">UTA</td> <td align="right">24.5</td> <td align="right">35</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">143%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">SAC</td> <td align="right">15.5</td> <td align="right">21</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">135%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">CLE</td> <td align="right">16.5</td> <td align="right">22</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">133%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">DET</td> <td align="right">20.5</td> <td align="right">25</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">122%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">SA</td> <td align="right">40.5</td> <td align="right">49</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">121%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">MIN</td> <td align="right">22.5</td> <td align="right">26</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">116%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">IND</td> <td align="right">36.5</td> <td align="right">42</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">115%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">ATL</td> <td align="right">34.5</td> <td align="right">39</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">113%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">PHO</td> <td align="right">31.5</td> <td align="right">34</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">108%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">DEN</td> <td align="right">34.5</td> <td align="right">37</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">107%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">NJ</td> <td align="right">21.5</td> <td align="right">23</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">107%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">LAC</td> <td align="right">38.5</td> <td align="right">41</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">106%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">MIL</td> <td align="right">30.5</td> <td align="right">32</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">105%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">HOU</td> <td align="right">32.5</td> <td align="right">34</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">105%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">CHI</td> <td align="right">47.5</td> <td align="right">49</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">103%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">MEM</td> <td align="right">40.5</td> <td align="right">41</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">101%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">LAL</td> <td align="right">41.5</td> <td align="right">42</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">101%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">OKC</td> <td align="right">48.5</td> <td align="right">48</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">99%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">WAS</td> <td align="right">19.5</td> <td align="right">19</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">97%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">BOS</td> <td align="right">39.5</td> <td align="right">38</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">96%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">ORL</td> <td align="right">38.5</td> <td align="right">37</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">96%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">GS</td> <td align="right">25.5</td> <td align="right">24</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">94%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">MIA</td> <td align="right">50.5</td> <td align="right">47</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">93%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">PHI</td> <td align="right">38.5</td> <td align="right">35</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">91%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">NYK</td> <td align="right">41.5</td> <td align="right">36</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">87%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">NOH</td> <td align="right">25.5</td> <td align="right">21</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">82%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">DAL</td> <td align="right">44.5</td> <td align="right">36</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">81%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">POR</td> <td align="right">35.5</td> <td align="right">28</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">79%</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" height="20">CHA</td> <td align="right">15.5</td> <td align="right">7</td> <td class="xl66" align="right">45%</td></tr></tbody></table> This tells us some things we already know: Utah & the Spurs are some overachieving WINNING teams, but there are also some overachieving losing teams like Sacramento, Toronto and Cleveland. Truehoop's system would have this be the draft order, straight up: so Toronto gets the #1 pick, SA gets the #6, Charlotte #30, etc. This doesn't work, it just doesn't. But their problem is stopping there. Here's the projected draft rank if there's no lottery and it's just wins and losses (assume for now that there are no ties): CHA, WAS, SAC, NOH, CLE, TOR, NJ, GS, DET, MIN, POR, MIL, PHO, HOU, UTA, PHI, NYK, DAL, DEN, ORL, BOS, ATL, LAC, MEM, IND, LAL, MIA, OKC, SA, CHI. We want to do things like "reward Detroit for overachieving" and "punish Charlotte's tanking" without breaking the whole system and handing San Antonio a top 6 pick. The solution? Use the success rate of the season to modify the draft order. Give 30 'points' to Charlotte. 29 to Washington, and so on, down to giving 1 point to Chicago. Multiply these point totals with their success rate. Sort by the new numbers (best picks go to bad teams that still have overachieved)! You end up with this: Spoiler <table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="145"><colgroup><col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:877;width:18pt" width="24"> <col style="mso-width-source:userset;mso-width-alt:2084;width:43pt" width="57"> <col style="width:48pt" width="64"> </colgroup><tbody><tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt;width:18pt" align="right" height="20" width="24">1</td> <td style="width:43pt" width="57"> </td> <td class="xl65" style="width:48pt" width="64">SAC</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">2</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">TOR</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">3</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">CLE</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">4</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">WAS</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">5</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">DET</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">6</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">NJ</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">7</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">MIN</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">8</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">UTA</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">9</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">NOH</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">10</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">GS</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">11</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">MIL</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">12</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">PHO</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">13</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">HOU</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">14</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">POR</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">15</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">PHI</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">16</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">CHA</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">17</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">DEN</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">18</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">NYK</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">19</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">ORL</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">20</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">DAL</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">21</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">ATL</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">22</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">BOS</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">23</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">LAC</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">24</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">MEM</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">25</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">IND</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">26</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">LAL</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">27</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">MIA</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">28</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">OKC</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">29</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">SA</td> </tr> <tr style="height:15.0pt" height="20"> <td style="height:15.0pt" align="right" height="20">30</td> <td> </td> <td class="xl65">CHI</td> </tr> </tbody></table> Okay, we now have a draft order that's much harder to nitpick. Not one of the top 8 draft picks is given to a team that significantly underachieved; not one of the top 7, conversely, is given to a winning team. How does the poster child for tanking, Charlotte, fare? They get their pick nuked down to 16 - harsh, but can you really argue they deserve better? Fear not Charlotte fans, the Vegas line for your wins next year will be tiny and you'll have the chance to grab a great pick then if you improve. This method does not unsettle the draft order at the end of the first round, and makes only small adjustments near the middle (for example, raising the slightly overachieving Milwaukee, Phoenix, and Houston over the tanking Portland). Most of the movement comes at the top, and with EXTREME over/underachievers like Charlotte or Utah. Finally, you can make this the actual draft order (it would be at the very least difficult to game the system) or you can throw it in combination with a lottery. Thoughts?
The idea is interesting in principle, but in practice a system based on overachieving will likely be easy to game because of the difficulty in evaluating players who have not played much. My hunch is that teams that load up on rookies and D-league players would be able to set extremely low expectations for themselves. Many such players can be competent (though not great) but would be likely to be evaluated as scrubs, so they'd win the #1 pick by playing avg and then far exceeding expectations. I don't think this type of expectation-management is what anyone wants to see the league devolve into. Jopatmc's idea is the opposite of this, since it is simple and straightforward. I'm starting to come around on it. One potential modification to jopatmc's idea is to provide additional money shares for teams based on their overall finish, even if they are out of the playoffs. The worse you do, the lower your money share. So this incentivizes all teams to keep playing hard up to the very end of the season.
Why not just use the system that was in place in 1993? The old system (one ball for every team) was too unfair to the dregs...the 1993 system (11 balls for worst, 10 for second, etc) seemed pretty fair, but then they changed it in 1994 so that the bottom 4 teams dominate 75% of the balls...for no apparent reason. not sure if necessary
