I agree. But choosing where and when to jump in/out has always been the gamble, no? That can be said of a penny stock, high dollar like AAPL, or even higher dollar like BRK.A. As for CSCO, I don't think there was as much adulation/attention as AAPL simply because they didn't sell consumer product. But it sure got it amongst the business crowd. I mean, it didn't get to largest market capitalization without hype.
These levels? Meaning exactly what? You seemed to feel comfortable with owning GOOG awhile back even though it is was much more richly valued than AAPL. And you did say to short AAPL before, but that's in the past. Also, comparing AAPL to a dot com is just flat out silly. Please tell me any dot com who had the balance sheet, earnings, and sales even remotely comparable to AAPL. Yes AAPL has huge growth, but the market is not pricing huge growth into the stock's earnings multiples. It has like a 17 trailing P/E and a 12 forward P/E, before you take out cash. I think the S&P 500 is somewhere around a 16 trailing P/E and like 13 forward P/E. I don't mind if you don't think AAPL is a buy. My problem is with your repeated insistence on AAPL being some bubble/mania/dot com-like company and stock. You keep stating this, but there is nothing that shows AAPL to be that. It is priced basically in line with the S&P 500 and it has huge amounts of sales, earnings, and cash. None of those things are hallmarks of a bubble/mania/dot com type company.
I don't think he means AAPL is a bubble in the sense that the P/E ratios are out of whack. The P/E is in line because the sales are so high. So it is a bubble in that he does not think the sales can stay that high... that the frenzy of buying Apple stuff is the bubble itself. And when that falls off, the P/E will follow, and thus it will look more similar to a dot-com stock at that point. What happens eventually is really anyone's guess. New competitors keep coming out and Apple keeps blowing out their sales numbers. So they are definitely proving people wrong. And it's actual sales. And they have actual (and huge) cash reserves. So definitely not like dot-com in that regards.
You are taking things too literally. Dot coms evaporated and most went to 0. Do I think that will be the case for aapl when its bubble bursts? No. It will still be a solid company, it will just be worth a lot less than it is now. Have you read the article that I originally responded to? The market may not be pricing in huge growth, but sustaining its margins is a foregone conclusion. That is the comparison between Dot coms and aapl, unsustainable growth for the former and unsustainable margins for the latter. Aapl will not go bust, but the stock is so overowned that when its margins start to contract and people can't justify its valuation anymore it will be like opening the floodgates, like every bubble.
Exactly. At the top of every bubble there is ALWAYS fundamental reasons justifying it. At the top of every bubble people are ALWAYS thinking it is different this time. I mean come on, if it was so easy to spot a bubble just based on a simple P/E ratio, no one would ever get caught up in one. With that said there is no reason why you can't get in on the ride, as long as you don't get caught holding the bag when the music stops.
I feel their business model is just not going to work out. Local advertising could take them out easily..in fact most of the deals I use now is from local group buy sites...Google could take their market shares as well, now accounting issues; investors just don't like companies with accounting problems.
You see where the EUR/JPY topped out at? 111.5, right around that 112 target. Although I do agree with you that the other EUR crosses look even better now after their move yesterday. Got in some EUR/USD too after the fed minutes.
I really want to short Groupon. They tried to come to me and ask me to do the "deal". Whats that lets make a coupon and let your customers get 50% off. Ok that sounds ok, whats that we get half of that 50% and you only get to keep 25% of the total deal. Huzzah. To me it wasnt worth it. The deal only drags in mostly deal hunters. One timers. As a business you want to get repeat customers. If I am going to spend money it has to be for those repeat customers. Talk about their accounting issues, they like to book all their "deals" as their sales and revenue for the current period. Thats why some ppl call it like a ponzi scheme because they have to make more and more deals every month to cover the previous one. Eventually businesses will wise up and all the deals will dry up. Is groupon worth anywhere close to its 9.57 billion market cap. And another thing has anyone seen a lot of weird companies having their IPO lately. Yelp, angies list, groupon, all these businesses making money for investors then other investors get desperate and worse companies start IPO without a real strong foundation for their company. This sounds familiar oh yes Tech bubble 2.0
Dow starting to look a little top heavy. If we test 13,297 again this month and don't bust through it May is going to be ugly.
You can look at my history in this thread about insider information for the validity of my next comment. My buddy who is a day trader sent me a message saying it looks like someone is getting prepared to short the hell out of apple very soon. Someone meaning a market mover not joe blow around the corner. This is just short term thinking and everyone should do their own research, but be on the look out for a possible heavy drop in apple soon.
Yea it's going to happen sooner or later, but the actual financials of the company validate the price they are getting if not more. If it drops it will eventually come back up.
Cxbby do you day trade gold or are you holding long. Looking at the price of gold inflation adjusted, gold hasn't really risen that much in the past 100 or so years. It is really just this recent stint that it is really gaining any traction
Aapl has been relatively weak compared to the market the past 3 days, which is the first time its been relatively weak since god knows when. I'm not sure which way it is going from here in the near term future(I see sub-500 a little longer term), mostly predicated on GOOG earnings tonight probably, but it sure as hell seems like someone is selling it right now. Keep up these calls man, thanks.
Well they have earnings in 2 weeks so it's not the worst play in the world considering how much it has run into the earnings.
And man it's been a long time since I've traded. Just realized that. I think I've only traded a handful of days in the past 3 months. Never thought I'd be at this point in my professional life.
Just kind of got bored with it. Not as fulfilling as it used to be. I'm actually thinking about trying to go back to school for fun. I've been getting more into physics and math lately. I've also been exploring what the root causes of my difficulty with school really are. In my head, if I was able to learn something like how to trade the stock market then I should be able to succeed in school without it feeling like I am fighting thru the material I am wanting to learn. It's been interesting and I've seen a couple different psychologists to help me out with this issue. They have had some very good advice and they didn't just try to blame my issues on some sort of learning disability. Rather, they thought my issues stemmed from a faulty educational foundation from an educational system that often does not meet the needs of the students. For me, signs seem to point to my poor reading skills as the source of many of my educational struggles. These skills can be learned even at my old age of 32 . Anyhow, I won't get too far off track with that stuff, but I will say they have given me a TON of material to read that basically details how to learn in a much more effective fashion. So that's what I've been up to and why I'm not really getting into the office lately. Maybe at some point I will get back into it. I am taking my continuing ed stuff so I don't lose my licenses in case I do want to start trading again. That said it kind of feels like a chapter in my life is coming to a conclusion.
