Apologize. Was on a trip this weekend, and only when I got there did I realize I would be without internet and cell service. Here are the Magic Numbers after all games played on March 28: Games H2H Div Con Over Hou Magic Opp Magic Team W/L H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB TB Number Number 1 Thunder 40-13 2-2 None T N/A X 29-10 L No* 1(-4) 2 Spurs 36-14 2-2 None T 10-4 L 24-11 L No* 5(-2) 3 Lakers 33-20 1-1 1A T N/A X 25-11 L No 28(-3) 9(-3) 4 Clippers 32-21 0-3 None L N/A X 21-16 L No* 17(-2) 9(-4) 5 Grizzlies 29-22 2-2 None T 5-5 L 18-19 T No 16(-3) 13(-3) 6 Mavericks 30-24 0-2 1A L 6-4 L 20-18 L No* 14(-4) 11(-2) 7 Nuggets 29-24 1-1 1A,1H T N/A X 14-22 W Yes 14(-2) 13(-3) 8 Rockets 29-25 5-6 18-19 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 Jazz 28-26 1-1 1H T N/A X 18-19 T *** 12(-4) 14(-2) 10 Suns 26-26 2-1 1H W N/A X 16-18 W Yes 14(-2) 16(-2) 11 Wolves 25-29 1-3 None L N/A X 19-19 L No* 9(-4) 16(-1) 12 Blazers 25-29 2-0 1A W N/A X 18-20 T Yes* 8(-4) 17(-3) 13 Warriors 20-31 1-1 1H T N/A X 13-20 W Yes 7(-4) 22(-1) 14 Kings 18-34 2-0 1H W N/A X 13-22 W Yes* 3(-3) 15 Hornets 13-40 1-0 1A,1H W 1-8 W 7-29 W Yes Exterminated... * Indicates the Tie Break is final Hou Magic Number is Hou Wins + Opp Losses needed for Rockets to clinch record over that team. Opp Magic Number is Opp Wins + Hou Losses needed for respective opponent to clinch a better record than the Rockets. NBA Tie Break rules: (1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division (2) Head-to-head W-L percentage (3) Division W-L percentage if all tied teams are in the same division (4) Conference W-L percentage (5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference (6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference (7) Net Points, all games While there has definitely been action, most everything has played out how it was expected. On top of that, given that many tiebreakers will be undecided until H2H matchups are finalized over the next 2 weeks, not much has been cleared up. While the Mavericks have slipped a bit with their tough schedule the past week or so, I just don’t see the Rockets overtaking them. Mavs are essentially 2 games ahead with the tiebreaker and both teams have “~5 gimmes”. Rockets would certainly have to win in Dallas to pull it off. (In the past 10 regular seasons, Houston has won in Dallas 5 times; 2 times Dirk did not play, 1 time Dirk played 10 minutes, and the other 2 times the Rockets had this guy named Yao Ming.) Nuggets are just so hard to predict, beating Chicago & Orlando on the road while losing to Toronto & Minnesota. Schedule strength is about the same as Rockets. While they do have the best record against Eastern Conf., they only play 1 more EC team, Orlando. Utah has a lot of home games, few B2B’s left, and easy competition as well so I see them being a big challenge. If the Rockets lose that game at home, we probably lose the spot to them or definitely ceded #7. Suns just have a large number games that have to be played with the most B2B’s, road games, and games against winning teams. Hard to see what happens. With a good week they could jump a few teams, but a bad week would knock them out quickly. The #7 & #8 playoff spots will still likely boil down to Nuggets, Rockets, Jazz & Suns. Tie breakers will be huge as all four teams play each other a few times over the next few weeks. Some things to take note of: Utah holds tiebreaker over Denver in H2H 2-1 (Final) Denver temporarily has tiebreaker over Phoenix 1-0 with 2 more games (1 @ PHO, 1 @ DEN) Phoenix temporarily has tiebreaker over Utah 1-0 with 2 more games (1 @ PHO, 1 @ UTAH). I did not calculate out the current tiebreaker, W-L % with WC playoff teams between Rockets & Jazz because it will not matter with only 1 more H2H game between the two. That tiebreaker would likely only come into play with the Suns, and only if the Suns beat Houston in their last game and both teams have the same conference record. Tomorrow’s big games for playoffs: Tomorrow’s big games for picks: Suns @ Kings Knicks(2 games ahead of Bucks) @ Pacers(2 games ahead of Dallas) 76ers(Tied with Dallas) @ Heat Warriors @ Grizzlies(1/2 game ahead of Dallas)
Thanks!!..love the updates....next 3 weeks all games are like playoff games...can't believe blazers screwed us tonight by losing to jazz!!
Here are the Magic Numbers after all games played on April 4: Games H2H Div Con Over Hou Magic Opp Magic Team W/L H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB TB Number Number 1 Thunder 40-14 2-2 None T N/A X 29-10 L No* 1 2 Spurs 38-14 2-2 None T 10-4 L 24-11 L No* 3(-2) 3 Lakers 35-20 1-1 1A T N/A X 26-11 L No 7(-2) 4 Clippers 32-22 0-3 None L N/A X 21-17 L No* 16(-1) 9 5 Grizzlies 30-23 2-2 None T 5-6 T 19-20 T *** 15(-1) 12(-1) 6 Mavericks 31-24 0-2 1A L 7-4 L 21-18 L No* 14 10(-1) 7 Rockets 29-25 5-6 18-19 8 Nuggets 29-25 1-1 1A,1H T N/A X 14-23 W Yes 13(-1) 13 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 Suns 28-26 2-1 1H W N/A X 18-18 L Yes 12 14(-2) 10 Jazz 28-27 1-1 1H T N/A X 18-20 L Yes 11(-1) 14 11 Blazers 26-29 2-0 1A W N/A X 18-20 T Yes* 8(-1) 17 12 Wolves 25-31 1-3 None L N/A X 19-21 L No* 7(-1) 16 13 Warriors 21-32 1-1 1H T N/A X 14-21 W Yes 6(-1) 14 Kings 19-35 2-0 1H W N/A X 13-23 W Yes* 2(-1) 15 Hornets 14-40 1-0 1A,1H W 1-8 W 8-29 W Yes Exterminated... * Indicates the Tie Break is final Hou Magic Number is Hou Wins + Opp Losses needed for Rockets to clinch record over that team. Opp Magic Number is Opp Wins + Hou Losses needed for respective opponent to clinch a better record than the Rockets. NBA Tie Break rules: (1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division (2) Head-to-head W-L percentage (3) Division W-L percentage if all tied teams are in the same division (4) Conference W-L percentage (5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference (6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference (7) Net Points, all games Suns beating Utah is really big as they now own the tiebreaker against the Jazz. Jazz still have a much easier schedule though, so we have to see how it will play out. Thursday really only big to hope Knicks lose and if you want the Mavericks to help the Rockets with a pick this year. Friday will be big as nearly every important teams plays and Denver can clinch the tiebreaker over the Suns. Today’s big games for playoffs: Today’s big games for picks: Knicks(1 game ahead of Bucks) @ Magic(1.5 games ahead of Dallas) Boston(Tied with Dallas) @ Bulls Clippers(1.5 games ahead of Dallas) @ Kings Friday’s big games for playoffs: Friday’s big games for picks: Suns @ Nuggets Bobcats @ Bucks(1 game behind Knicks) Warriors @ Jazz Grizzlies(Tied with Dallas) @ Heat Timberwolves @ Mavs Thunder @ Pacers(2.5 games ahead of Dallas) Pistons @ Hawks(1 game ahead of Dallas) Clippers(1.5 games ahead of Dallas) @ Kings
Here are the Magic Numbers after all games played on April 6: Games H2H Div Con Over Hou Magic Opp Magic Team W/L H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB TB Number Number 1 Spurs 39-14 2-2 None T 11-4 L 25-11 L No* 2(-1) 2 Thunder 40-15 2-2 None T N/A X 29-10 L No* 1 3 Lakers 35-21 2-1 None W N/A X 26-12 L Yes* 7 4 Clippers 33-22 0-3 None L N/A X 22-17 L No* 15(-1) 8(-1) 5 Grizzlies 31-23 2-2 None T 5-6 T 19-20 W Yes 14(-1) 11(-1) 6 Mavericks 31-25 0-2 1A L 7-4 L 21-19 L No* 12(-2) 10 7 Rockets 30-25 5-6 19-19 8 Nuggets 30-25 1-1 1A,1H T N/A X 15-23 W Yes 12(-1) 12(-1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 Jazz 29-27 1-1 1H T N/A X 19-20 W Yes 10(-1) 13(-1) 10 Suns 28-27 2-1 1H W N/A X 18-19 W Yes 10(-2) 14 11 Blazers 27-29 2-0 1A W N/A X 19-20 W Yes* 7(-1) 15(-1) 12 Wolves 25-31 1-3 None L N/A X 19-21 W No* 6(-1) 16 13 Warriors 21-33 1-1 1H T N/A X 14-22 W Yes 4(-2) 14 Kings 19-36 2-0 1H W N/A X 13-24 W Yes* Deposed... 15 Hornets 14-41 1-0 1A,1H W 1-9 W 8-30 W Yes Exterminated... * Indicates the Tie Break is final Hou Magic Number is Hou Wins + Opp Losses needed for Rockets to clinch record over that team. Opp Magic Number is Opp Wins + Hou Losses needed for respective opponent to clinch a better record than the Rockets. NBA Tie Break rules: (1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division (2) Head-to-head W-L percentage (3) Division W-L percentage if all tied teams are in the same division (4) Conference W-L percentage (5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference (6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference (7) Net Points, all games Dallas is really slumping at the wrong time. They have come back to Houston/Denver and all 3 have a legitimate shot at a #6 seed. Would not be surprised if Memphis falls a bit too with multiple games in a short span. Jazz found comfort at home, and the Nuggets cooled off the Suns. It will be crazy few weeks as this plays out. I will go over each of these teams head-to-head records later. Saturday’s big games for playoffs: Saturday’s big games for picks: Mavs @ Grizzlies Trailblazers @ Bucks(1 game behind New York) Lakers @ Suns Hawks(2 games ahead of Dallas) @ Bobcats Nuggets @ Warriors Magic(1.5 games ahead of Dallas) @ 76ers Sunday’s big games for playoffs: Sunday’s big games for picks: Jazz @ Spurs Bulls @ Knicks(1 game ahead of Milwaukee) 76ers @ Celtics(Tied with Dallas)
Here is the post about other teams tiebreakers. To read this, you should go by row, not by column (So the first row looks at Dallas who owns tie breakers against Denver, Phoenix, & Utah. Their records are 3-1 against Denver with no more games left, 1-1 against Memphis with 1 game in Memphis, and so forth).
Note to self...if I write my posts in courier monospace font while typing stats, my facts will be treated with more respect.
Pat Riley advises everyone to look at a much simpler record for NBA ... which is 100% accurate at end of season like Wins or Losses. Look at Road Win vs Home Losses. That eliminates schedule skewing and is 100% correct at end of season ... just like Wins alone...or Losses alone.
I thought this was interesting, so I did it for all teams right now Code: RoadWin|HomeLoss x -*Miami 16 3 0.842 San Antonio 17 4 0.810 x -*Chicago 21 6 0.778 x -*OKC 17 5 0.773 Indiana 16 7 0.696 LA Lakers 12 6 0.667 Memphis 13 7 0.650 Atlanta 14 8 0.636 LA Clippers 13 9 0.591 Orlando 14 11 0.560 Houston 10 8 0.556 Boston 11 9 0.550 Denver 14 12 0.538 Utah 9 8 0.529 Dallas 11 10 0.524 Phoenix 12 11 0.522 Milwaukee 13 12 0.520 New York 10 10 0.500 Philadelphia 10 11 0.476 Minnesota 12 14 0.462 Portland 8 10 0.444 New Jersey 12 19 0.387 Golden State 10 16 0.385 Detroit 6 12 0.333 Toronto 9 18 0.333 Cleveland 9 18 0.333 New Orleans 8 21 0.276 Sacramento 5 14 0.263 Washington 5 21 0.192 Charlotte 3 20 0.130
Mavs are losing badly again tonight. A 3-6 matchup with the Lakers is looking more and more likely. Not to mention a potential matchup with the Thunder in the 2nd round.
I was not optimistic before the Bulls win, now the Lakers win, on my, things are a changing. This could happen. The Rockets are becoming a very pesky team. Add Lowry and Martin in "support" roles, hmmmm.
Here are the Magic Numbers after all games played on April 8: Games H2H Div Con Over Hou Magic Opp Magic Team W/L H2H Left TB Div TB Conf TB TB Number Number 1 Spurs 40-14 2-2 None T 11-4 L 26-11 L No* 1 2 Thunder 41-15 2-2 None T N/A X 29-10 L No* ...Clinched 3 Lakers 35-22 2-1 None W N/A X 26-13 L Yes* 13(-1) 7 4 Clippers 34-22 0-3 None L N/A X 23-17 L No* 14(-1) 7(-1) 5 Grizzlies 32-23 2-2 None T 6-6 W 20-20 W *** 13(-1) 10(-1) 6 Rockets 31-25 5-6 20-19 7 Mavericks 31-26 0-2 1A L 7-5 L 21-20 T No* 10(-2) 10 8 Nuggets 30-26 1-1 1A,1H T N/A X 15-24 W Yes 11(-1) 11(-1) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 Suns 29-27 2-1 1H W N/A X 19-19 W Yes 9(-1) 13(-1) 10 Jazz 29-28 1-1 1H T N/A X 19-21 W Yes 8(-2) 13 11 Blazers 27-30 2-0 1A W N/A X 19-20 W Yes* 5(-2) 15 12 Wolves 25-32 1-3 None L N/A X 19-22 W No* 4(-2) 13 Warriors 22-33 1-1 1H T N/A X 15-22 W Yes 2(-1) 14 Kings 19-38 2-0 1H W N/A X 14-26 W Yes* Deposed... 15 Hornets 15-41 1-0 1A,1H W 1-9 W 9-30 W Yes Exterminated... * Indicates the Tie Break is final Hou Magic Number is Hou Wins + Opp Losses needed for Rockets to clinch record over that team. Opp Magic Number is Opp Wins + Hou Losses needed for respective opponent to clinch a better record than the Rockets. NBA Tie Break rules: (1) Division leader wins tie from team not leading a division (2) Head-to-head W-L percentage (3) Division W-L percentage if all tied teams are in the same division (4) Conference W-L percentage (5) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, own conference (6) W-L Percentage vs. Playoff teams, other conference (7) Net Points, all games Memphis continued Dallas' losing streak and now owns the tiebreaker over Dallas. Suns have stayed hot and I am starting to think they will beat out the Jazz and Nuggets for that last playoff spot. They have just played better against better competition lately and will likely beat the Nuggets and Jazz in the games left to play. Even until last week, I did not see the Rockets beating the Mavs in Dallas, which would have essentially guaranteed the Mavs a higher seed. With Lowry’s return and the continued impressive Rockets play combined with the Mavs continued slump without Jason Kidd, it is now almost the Rockets’ game to lose. Kidd has a hurt groin but is “supposed to return” on the Mavs’ road trip to GSW, POR, LAL, & UTAH. We will just have to see if that happens or not. With the lateness of this game, it will determine the higher seed unless say the Mavs go 0-5 until then and the Rockets win out (or vice versa), which most likely will not happen. Even before that Mavs win, the Rockets need to be focused this week because this week could very well determine if they actually make the playoffs. They play vs. Jazz, vs. Suns, @ Nuggets, & vs. Nuggets over the next 7 days after the Blazers game. All 3 tiebreakers are up for grabs and could be finalized by sweeping those 4 games. A sweep of those Nuggets games would equal a 5 point drop in the Rocket’s Magic Number column, with a win over the others equaling a 3 point drop each. However, losing all four games would mean certainly losing seeding battle to the Nuggets and making it a crazy race to the finish for #8 seed with the Suns & Jazz who would then own the tiebreakers. Honestly, with the Rockets play of late and the luckiness of the schedule I can see the Rockets beating Portland, Utah, and Phoenix. The last 2 are at home where Houston has been very good. Also, they can get in practice time for Lowry and rest for the others. That Denver back to back scares me though. Rockets have played well in Denver of late, but you never know when that altitude will bite you or when the Nuggets will shoot lights out. Followed by travelling back home, I can easily see the Rockets losing both games heading into the pivotal game at Dallas. I know I said the same thing about Dallas even up to last week, but it will really will take a miracle for Rockets to catch Memphis. The Grizzles play NOH twice, Minn, Char, Cle, Port and Orl (who is falling apart) to end the year. I also see them stealing a game from either the Clippers or Spurs and doing no worse than splitting against the Suns and Jazz given their play of late. It is too easy of a schedule for team that is peaking at just the right time. In fact, I think is more than likely that the Grizzlies fight the Clippers for the #3 seed while the Lakers fall to #5. Monday’s big games for playoffs: Monday’s big games for picks: Lakers @ Hornets Thunder @ Bucks (1 game behind New York) Clippers @ Grizzlies Warriors @ Nuggets Suns @ Timberwolves Spurs @ Jazz NOTE: I will no longer follow teams for the Mavs’ pick because I honestly do not see Dallas getting a top 10 record.
<B> Remaining Schedule: Memphis Houston Dallas Denver Phoenix Utah</B> 4.09 LAC 4.09 @ POR 4.10 SAC 4.09 GSW 4.09 @ MIN 4.09 SAS 4.11 PHO 4.11 UTA 4.12 @ GSW 4.11 MIN 4.11 @ MEM 4.11 @ HOU 4.12 @ SAS 4.13 PHO 4.13 @ POR 4.13 @ LAL 4.13 @ HOU 4.13 @ NOH 4.14 UTA 4.14 @ SAS 4.14 @ MEM 4.15 @ NOH 4.15 @ DEN 4.15 @ LAL 4.15 HOU 4.17 @ MIN 4.16 DEN 4.16 @ UTA 4.16 @ HOU 4.16 POR 4.16 DAL 4.18 NOH 4.18 @ DAL 4.18 HOU 4.18 LAC 4.18 OKC 4.18 @ POR 4.20 @ CHA 4.19 @ NOH 4.20 GSW 4.21 @ PHO 4.19 LAC 4.21 ORL 4.21 POR 4.21 GSW 4.21 @ CHI 4.21 DEN 4.23 CLE 4.22 @ MIA 4.26 @ ATL 4.22 ORL 4.24 @ UTA 4.24 PHO 4.26 ORL 4.26 NOH 4.25 @ OKC 4.25 SAS 4.26 POR 4.26 @ MIN
Nice, thanks for the update. The team needs to avoid a collapse in order to get into the playoffs. They seem to be playing at a high leve right now.
