I want all three first-round picks. Can't remember such a deep draft. The players from 10 to 25 are amazing.
With all due respect, where would you fit these three new players? The Houston Rockets currently have the following players, ALL AGE 24 OR YOUNGER, under contract (or expected to be under contract) for the 2012-13 NBA season: Chase Budinger Patrick Patterson Chandler Parsons Marcus Morris Donatas Motiejunas Courtney Fortson Greg Smith Also, assuming that the Rockets bring back Dragic and Lee, where would these three new players fit in the grand scheme of the Rockets' long-range planning? Deep draft or not, the Rockets would be foolish to enter next season with FOUR first round pick rookies (the three picks plus Motiejunas) on the roster.
There is always a place for better players in a rotation. Rockets current roster: Lowry - Dragic - Fortson Martin - Lee Parsons - Budinger - Morris Scola - Patterson - Thomas Camby - Dalembert - Smith Dalembert, Smith, Thomas, and Fortson can all be written off for next season - they are the definition of disposable. Camby should be kept at smaller dollars next year, but that's not a given Rockets do not have exclusive rights on Dragic, and keeping a back up at high dollars is unlikely. Lee will most likely stay.... ...and Morey will most likely try more aggressively to move Martin to make room for Lee in the starting lineup Scola's place moving forward may also be tenuous. Budinger's a nice value, but is not a key starter. If there's a SF stud you like in the draft, he will take Chase's spot in a hot minute. I think that leaves you with: Lowry, Lee, Parsons, Morris, and Patterson as 80% locks for next year's rotation, and Martin, Scola, Budinger, and Camby as possibles for next year's rotation Motiejunas is likely coming over...but it is dubious to anoint him a starter or even key rotation player before he's had a day in training camp. We like his promise, but there's no guarantee he's going to work out or contribute immediately. Look at Jan Vesely and Nikola Vucevic. Motiejunas is not a lock to be a 30-minute guy out of the shoot. Let's say he backs up Camby at 18 mpg. That still leaves you with an expected hole at back up PG A need for a stud at 3 (assuming Morris doesn't morph into one) A need for help at PF (seeing as Scola-Patterson isn't dominating) A need for a longterm solution at C A possible need for wing depth (in the event that Martin is moved) We need to mine for a franchise player. We do not have one. Most drafts have an All Star or two lurking past the #12 pick. This is a deeper draft than most, which enhances the odds of finding one in the 12-20 range. Three picks jumps those odds even higher. If releasing our obligation to the Nets is the difference between our landing a franchise savior or not, I'll eat my hat. The danger of missing out on a special player in this draft because we went in with only the Knicks pick is far more likely.
But who to trade for? Bud makes like 900K Morris & Patterson make almost 4M combined. What player out there is worth all 3 for $5M?
Package some with Martin Package some with Scola Heck, you could even package some with Dalembert and let him act as a massive salary dump/loophole We are spinning our wheels until we land a frontcourt stud. Be creative. The notion that we should shy away from Kendall Marshall because Fortson might have a contract is incredibly short sighted.
That's a problem Morey would like to have as evidenced by his his crop of 09er additions. It's flexibility the thing you so love. Maybe you use one in a trade or combine 2 to move up. You could trade it for a second now and a future first. Morey has already gone on record as saying this is a deep draft and he and his staff or good at finding players from 14-40. He even mentioned buying a pick if necessary. It sounds like Morey would love to have that problem.
I would say that Fortson is a longshot to make the roster so more than likely you are looking at this roster- Lowry Martin, Budinger Parsons, Morris Scola, Patterson, Montiejunas Dalembert Thats 9 for sure -Free agents that are likely to be resigned- Lee, Camby, & Dragic Thats 11 probably -3 potential draft picks- Thats 14 roster spots -Then "non-guarenteed "contracts of Fortson & Smith" So that makes 16 roster spots out of 15 available. One odd man out. So more than likely at least one or more of Lee, Camby, Dragic will not be able to be resigned. I think the Rockets technically COULD resign all 3 free agents, and take on 3 late first round draft picks as well with only waiving one of Smith/Fortson. However, I believe this would not be in the best interest of the front office if they did in fact have 3 draft picks (which is actually not likely). The young players and fans complain already enough about players like Morris not being able to get on the court enough anyways. These young players need an opportunity in the second half of the season. The second half always seems to be when rookies get a shot. There needs to be some pressure relieved from the roster next summer to prevent duplication. I believe Morey has learned the hard way that if a player sits for more than two seasons than they value can severly be damaged in trade because they werent good enough in the first place to get playing time or spend too much time in the D-League. The ultimate goal of the front office this draft day has to be to- -A. make a deal for a significant upgrade in talent(all-star level) by packaging one or more players with a pick or two. -B. Move up in the draft by bundling picks -C. Move up in the draft by bundling picks plus a player or two. If all else fails and they have to take 3 draft picks then its possible, and they can. However, its going to be a full bench with alot of players potentially causing issues in the lockeroom because of lack of playing time until the February trade deadline when alot of the player values have soured in the eyes of other GM's. So yeah, in short I doubt they will take 3 first round picks IF that even happens.
Good Analysis... In the end I see us in the playoffs and I doubt we get Dallas' pick. They aren't tearing up the league and I suspect if it gets close to them making it and doesn't give them home court advantage in the playoffs Cuban will tank one or two games to insure he keeps his pick. In fact if it's the last game of the season and nothing is riding on a victory I am sure he will bench everyone for the loss. So that leaves us with New York's pick. 1 pick but Morey will buy a late first or a second for sure.
Kyle Irving is out for a week starting tonight, and the Cavs are playing the Bucks. He should be back well before the Cavs face the Knicks on the 20th. You gotta like that timing
emjohn, nice response above. To your point about spinning wheels and needing to be creative about trying to get a frontcourt stud, I think having three 2012 first round picks (as opposed to having those picks spread over more than one draft) may be more detrimental . . . assuming, of course, that a big trade cannot be pulled off ON draft night or in July. I agree with people like OMR who say that, all else equal, a draft pick this year is worth more than a draft pick next year. However, as it relates to the value of one's assets, in the event that you can't deal that pick (or another player to make room for that pick to play), the value of that "asset" may deteriorate. Look at Marcus Morris. While I still believe he has value around the league, I'm guessing that he has less value now than he did on draft night. Don't get me wrong, I won't be unhappy having three 2012 first round picks . . . as long as we are actually able to make a substantive move that either involves multiple picks or creates room for one or two picks to play. (And, correct, I absolutely would not forego a first round pick because of Courtney Fortson. I merely included him in my list because, well, he qualified to be on that list.) OMR, agreed that having three first rounders gives Morey some flexibility to make moves. I'd love to see him do something--trade-wise--with those three picks. My post above was in response to BasketballReasons's desire to draft AND KEEP all three first round picks. I just don't think it's feasible to have FOUR first round pick rookies on a roster, even if you can move veterans elsewhere. IMO, it diminishes the development any one of those (presumably good) prospects gets and may spread the assistant coaches too thin in having truly meaningful and effective practices. Just my opinion, of course.
I would actually not have a problem going incredibly young even if it costs the Rockets games in 2012-2013 as I don't expect the team to get a great player this offseason. Trade Scola and Martin for future protected picks. That said, I don't think this is as deep draft as some think. It is a top heavy draft. Would not mind getting the pick obligation to NJ over with while the Rockets don't need the pick.
I look at it like this....acquire the best talent possible and let the chips fall where they fall. It probably wasn't smart to bring on Morris (who we wanted at SF) and Parsons when we had Bud and T-Will, but we got the best talent available and the best guy won out. What if Morey would have said "we already have enough young SF's on the roster so why spend this 2nd rounder there)? I think the talent in this draft at those pick slots will be better than the talent available at those slots in future drafts, whether that is to take a player for yourself or trade the pick. So I would prefer all 3 picks this year. I think the player at 15th this year could arguably be just as good as dudes going in the top 7 last year.
I think that's a real possibility. As Bima pointed out, Donuts is another 1st round contract, and he's coming here next season. I think there is a limit to just how young this team can be, and how many guaranteed contracts, to players who may not see time on the court worth mentioning next year, Morey is willing to take on. We had a similar problem this season, and seeing Williams and Thabeet (and Morris) sitting around, or in the D-League, didn't exactly have me jumping up and down with excitement.
Exactly. My ideal scenario is to have the Rockets come out of the 2012 NBA Draft with either (a) one very good draft pick, (b) a very good veteran acquired via trade and/or (c) future picks. Adding [Very Good 2012 Pick] and Donatas Motiejunas to the Rockets' roster will be excitement enough for me. I don't need more rookies than that. Of course, Morey will end up doing something that none of us expected or even considered.
Every single draft is top heavy. That's just a silly comment to make. It is virtually indisputable that there is more talent in this draft than normal, especially mid-first-to-early-second round. Since 2003 (leaving out 2011 since it's too early to count Leonard), we've seen the following crop up in picks 12-21 Eric Bledsoe Ty Lawson Roy Hibbert Rajon Rondo Danny Granger Al Jefferson Josh Smith David West To me, that suggests that on the norm you can anticipate one high level guy to show up in that range (10% odds). I consider this to be a virtual "double draft" due to the number of folks that stayed in school to dodge the lockout. Maybe you disagree, so I'll meet in the middle and say the odds go up to 15%. Keep our pick, odds double to 30%. Steal the Dallas pick, 45%. Now guesstimate the odds of snagging a player on par to the above list because we "released our obligation to the Nets". Try to be honest and admit the fact that holding the Knicks pick did squat for us the last several seasons and we watched every high level target go elsewhere. If we do give NJ our pick, it will be at or almost at its highest possible value - #15. In a draft notably deeper than we'll see next year. Even if you want to disregard the second part, you're still selling high. For no reason other than to release an obligation that isn't really in the way of anything significant. Draft a player, they still hold trade value. Maybe there's depreciation from trading a pick, but it's not extreme. Morey trading two DNP duds for Camby puts that idea on ice. Morey surrendering that pick in question for a chance at salvaging T-Will again challenges the notion that rookies out of the rotation have little trade value. I'll be frank. I don't give a damn (longterm) about Greg Smith, Courtney Fortson, Chase Budinger, Louis Scola, or even Kevin Martin. They have demonstrated, beyond all doubt, that they are not franchise-changing stars. And this is a have/have not league. I'm all for bringing in 4 first round picks and playing the odds that one of those 4 might blossom into the stud we have to have to move forward. If 3 of them bomb, sit them on the bench/send them to the Vipers like Thabeet, Flynn, and Williams did and dump them. Give the Nets the pick in a lesser draft when we finish higher than 8th in the West. Take Dallas's pick at 21 in a deep draft instead of when they reload with Deron Williams and finish with a top 6 record. Play the odds. Maximize value. Swing the fences for a real stud instead of batting for singles each year. Why? Just because? You're still looking at Lowry, Lee, Camby, and others to lead the locker room. It's not the same as the Cavs rebooting and being led by a rookie.
Someone has to ride pine. TWill couldn't beat out Budinger and Parsons. People make mistakes. Better to admit it and move on than to force a worse player into rotation. Thabeet...the worst part about Thabeet was that he was tall and hard to see over if you sat behind Rockets bench. Luckily, he was skinny. Rockets were stuck with contract his contract either way. 1st rd pick was worth the minimal discomfort caused to fans and the last few weeks with Battier. Morris, he is a product of the lockout. He will either get it next season or the Rockets should have drafted Parsons instead of him. Rockets got Parsons anyway..so no harm. I think it is horrible of fans to expect him to learn a new position without practice. The Rockets are trying to break him of PF habits. As much as fans want, letting him play a lot with bad habits negates the limited training he gets in practice. Playing helps get a guy game speed training, but Morris needs fundamental SF defensive training first. I see Smith and Fortson as end of the bench guys who will get opportunity to win PT. If they do, it sucks for the guy that got beat. Budinger and Morris will have a nice fight next fall for PT...I hope.
