Some random thoughts: I think passion/motor translates well, so are rebounding(Faried) and quickness(AB and Thomas this year). Meanwhile, Size/length/reach/strength kills a lot of promising prospects especially for bigmen(Sean May). Tweener's take a lot to develop and is high risk(MM/Twill). Shooting can be developed fairly easy in NBA. So the perfect draft pick should have great work ethic and size/quickness advantage for his position, like Parsons. If not, passion/motor/work ethic should at least be there, like Hayes, Landry, Lowry... I suddenly feel good about Motiejunas. Also a lot of bigmen in this years draft may not translate well other than the 2 or 3 top ones.
I dunno about the rest of what you said but this is plainly not true. When you see a guy get a lot better shooting the ball I guarantee countless hours in the gym in the early morning/late night are the culprit, let alone the time actually spent before/after practice with shooting coaches and what not. There's nothing easy about it, good shooting comes from extremely hard work. Guys like Lowry seem to get way better over night, in reality I bet he spent an insane amount of his own time getting better, and if you asked him I bet he'd say it was hard as ****.
It's easier to list what doesn't translate than what does. The best player on a bad team who takes a ton of shots to score a lot of points and lacks outstanding skills/athleticism.
Height. Anthony Davis is 6'10" at Kentucky and I think he'll manage to be 6'10" in the NBA as well. We'll see, though.
1. Athleticism and a good head on the shoulders 2. Versatile skill set with good head on shoulders. 3. Great feel for the game, like it comes natural.
I think his point is among most things shooting is one that seems easier to develop. Yao Ming will never jump like Hakeem but years of shooting practice have made him a solid shooter. There countless players who have improved their outside shooting over the years. Yes it takes time but time will never make Scola a great defender. Yes improving your shooting does take time and effort. Parsons has put in the time with Scola and already you see the improvement.
I do not know if it's the most important skill but it's what I always look for in sleepers. A great defensive player who shoots poorly is always undervalued. If he is athletic he can improve his shot. Teams always draft offense over defense. Parsons and Kawhi Leonard are perfect examples of that. In fact Leonard coming in was thought to be a poor shooter and that has changed. I loved Rondo's defensive skills coming in. He had a knuckleball shot in college but he had this wiry pestering kind of defense. I look at length, quickess, Reach, wingspan, girth and big hands, all help in transferring your defensive skills to the next level. This year I love Will Barton of Memphis. Great defensive player who already has good offensive skills. Draft Express has him going #7 in 2nd round but because of his defense and athleticism transfering better to the NBA I would draft him over Austin Rivers all day long. There are some other players I would consider if we get the Dallas pick, Royce, Harkless, Odom etc but Will Barton is in their for me.
Character. A lot easier to mold and develop a player if he isn't out partying all night. Fits into drive and passion as well, but you could have bad moral character yet still a drive to play well. Ideally it's mutually exclusive but bad character often impedes growth.
Anthony Davis is being made out to be tim duncan or that sort, but he is an almost exact clone of Marcus Camby and a young marcus camby in this league is VERY valuable. Both can hshoot outside, are skinny lanky and really strong with defensive timing and now dominant offensively but can impact the game in so many ways
I can't put davis in the Duncan category. Shaq, Timmy, Lebron are the only can't miss no1 picks in the last twenty years or so.
Not to be a homer or anything, but I don't think any team would pass on Yao, making him a can't-miss.
Rebounding, especially rebounding percentage correlates very tightly to success in the NBA. Rebounding is a measure of motivation and athleticism.
No team would have passed on him... but he was a high risk, high reward pick at 1. Definitely not a 'cant miss'...Anthony Davis is a 'can't miss' defensive post player.
