Understood and respect your opinion. Mine, on the other hand: (1) If the Rockets can get healthy come playoff time, and given the condensed, crazy, lockout-shortened season, I can definitely see the Rockets being competitive in a first round playoff series. (2) I think this franchise and this city needs a taste of Rockets success. (3) I think the playoff experience (preparation, games, exposure, etc.) will be a good thing for all of the Rockets' young players and will help spur their development. (4) A playoff appearance will bolster the Rockets' reputation in the minds of players, including free agents. It may only be a little; but it'll be a positive move. (5) I'd like to get the New Jersey pick obligation out of the way ASAP. (Pursuant to Old Man Rock's guidelines, I'm not sure if I'm allowed to explain why on this BBS anymore. ) (6) With Motiejunas coming over, and with having 1-2 other 2012 first round picks, I actually DON'T WANT so many picks. There simply isn't room for all of them on the roster; and trades to move up can be accomplished just/almost as easily substituting a current Rockets player with 2 other picks. (7) Contrary to popular belief, the 2012 NBA Draft is not an "all-timer" and doesn't have any true bona fide stars after Anthony Davis. Meanwhile, the 2013 NBA Draft may be a lot better than people expect, especially if some top guys go back to school. I'd like to have our (unencumbered) 2013 to use or to trade, since it may have more value than most currently realize. There are more reasons, but these should suffice for now.
But what odds would you give to us actually winning a series? there is a big difference between we can compete in games and you can forsee us winning a series. At the end of the day, getting eliminated in the first round really isn't much. Granted, I do understand the excitement of being in the playoffs.
Wouldn't you rather take two shots at that possible superstar with picks 12 and 15 instead of just taking one with 15? Or on the flip side, wouldn't you rather trade picks 15 and 22 to move up and then also have a second chance at getting another possible breakout player at 12? I think in a draft where there are a bunch of players with supposedly a lot of upside you want to grab up as many as you can with the hopes that one breaks out.
I think there would be a greater value placed on current Rockets than the picks in question... you would have a much better chance of grabbing say pick #4 for a package involving Lowry than you would for a package involving two picks in the late teens
I get that but I think if you are going to trade Lowry it makes more sense to miss the playoffs and have an extra pick to help rebuild. I get that people want to get rid of the obligation to the Nets but why not give ourselves the option of having an extra pick to either trade or draft a player we like. The Knicks pick will probably be 15-16 anyway which is the best the Nets can get from us so wouldn't you think that they would gladly accept that pick from us in exchange for our pick back if we want it that badly.
I respect your opinion. My rebuttal: 1. All of these picks we're eyeing will be at their highest value this year. Why would we want to give NJ a pick as high as #15? In a loaded draft? Let's give it to them in a shallow draft, and hopefully when we're a 4th seed or so. I cringe at the thought of giving them a Kendall Marshall instead of a Nolan Smith. 2. I know you place a high value on releasing the pick obligation, but I just don't see that pick standing in the way of a game changing move. If we're dropping a godfather offer on team X for superstar X...wouldn't our best chance of that be in June, when we're armed with 3 first rounders? 3. You mention the possibility of chasing a top 3 2013 pick...but you and I both know that Les is firmly against cleaning out to tank, and the Rockets won't sniff a lottery pick below 10. 4. No late lottery picks ever "scream" superstar...that's why they aren't a top 5 pick. But history shows it's not rare to strike gold later. 2004: Al Jefferson #15, Josh Smith #17 2005: Danny Granger #17 2006: Rajon Rondo #21 2008: Roy Hibbert #17, Nick Batum #25 2009: Ty Lawson #18 2010: Eric Bledsoe #18 -->Generally, most drafts will have a top player in the 12-20 range, and this year is substantially deeper than most recent drafts have been. I don't expect Morey to bat 1.000 finding diamonds....but I'd rather see him armed with 3 picks in a deep draft mining for that diamond than armed with 1 pick in a normal one. 5. What offseason moves are there to make? Honestly? We've watched 2 and 1/2 seasons of hotbed NBA activity...with the Rockets going 0-for-8+ and seemingly not even close on any high level target. Don't take offense, but your stance seems to ask us to hold out for the 0.5% future move instead of making the smart available move today. Just like we aren't landing Anthony Davis or Thomas Robinson, Dwight Howard's not coming over this summer or next February. We aren't going to land a top 3 pick in 2013. At the very worst, we stockpile more young players with high potential immediately and have them as blue chip trade bait for the future moves you're talking about.
I'm too far removed from my college statistics class to actually do the math, but the odds are MUCH, MUCH higher to win the first series than to win the lottery. And this is even assuming the Rockets have a pretty low chance of winning each game, say 20-30% against our 1st round opponent. Winning 4 out of 7 against a quality opponent is much more feasible than winning the lottery as best lottery team.
This is a bit of a strawman argument meh. Winning a series validates the going for playoff strategy, but you don't need to win the lottery to validate the tanking, the fact that you'd have your own lottery pick is already reason enough to do it. Bimathug keeps talking about the team with the "if healthy" tagline, but the truth is the Rox are banged up and totally not healthy at all. Kmart and Lowry look like they're gonna be out for majority of the season left, even if they are able to play in time for the playoffs, what kind of shape would they be in after not playing ball for a couple of months? Odds are we're gonna get destroyed in the 1st round, and I'd really rather end up with the 14th pick and miss the playoffs then end up giving our pick away and lose a 7 game series in the first round.
It's not really about having the 14th pick or not. But rather having a 14th pick this year or having a pick next year. Even if we assume best case scenario, and the Rocket become a contender next year, it's basically the difference between a ~17-18 pick vs ~20-25 pick. Not exactly so amazing that you give up a playoff run for IMO.
Bottom line is we have almost no shot to win a playoff series and I don't see how anyone who has been watching us play this entire season would pick us to beat one of the top 6 seeds in a playoff series. I understand wanting the excitement of rooting for our team in the postseason but our chances of doing anything there are slim to none. The question is "is making the playoffs" better for our future than having an extra draft pick and I don't see how anyone can argue yes, unless they really think we have a shot to advance. And if they do then I want to know what team they have been watching all season...and wonder if they realize how banged up we are. Playoff run implies playoff winning. Losing in the 1st round is not a playoff run. That's making the playoffs. And I would argue that a pick at any range/spot in this draft has more value than the one next year.
I agree 100%...if this was 1984, it would be another story, but play to win is the name of the game. I believe we can achieve success in the playoffs, even win the first two series. From there anything is possible.
So, what you are saying is, if the Rockets and the [Thunder/Spurs/Lakers] played ONE THOUSAND seven-game series, that the Rockets couldn't win SIX of those series??? If so, then you should probably stop being a Rockets fan for a while. It would be better for your health.
That's totally uncalled for. You are not a baby. You can say whatever you want. I just didn't appreciate you bringing in your flexibility issue into my simple poll and instead of people saying what they thought about my poll I had to debate people about your kooky flexibility issue (I am being kind). As I said many times to you if Morey agreed with you he could easily remove the draft limitations and clear up the flexibility and instead he wraps all of his trades with so much limitations for years because he values the possiblity of a lottery pick more than flexibility. It is clear you prefer flexibility over a lottery pick this year and Morey doesn't and in the end he is running the team. As for the rest of your argument. You think that the fans need a winning season to boost morale or whatever. Les and Morey agree with you. They think the fans deserve a winning team every year. But the fans in general do not agree. They see very little to make them believe in this team's future. They show that with the lowest attendance in years. The TV viewership is at an all time low as well. Even on this fanboard after you injected your flexibility issue in my poll the results still favor 60/40 we tank. The fans do not agree with you. They do not want a team that plays better than their talent and almost makes the playoff and wins one series in 15 years. They are sick of mediocrity. After we had a terrible season and drafted Hakeem I was more excited about this team then at any other point. I imagined a front line of McCray Sampson and Olajuwon and could not wait for the preseason to start. We were the second worse team in the league and I was elated. The fans want hope... they want something to look towards. The most we have to be excited for our future is Parsons, Dragic and Montiejunas. I like them but 15 years with only one playoff series win is too long. The fans want more. Yes winning helps young players but again you over value the benefit of barely making the playoffs and getting knocked out of the first round. You also under value this draft to make your flexibility argument. This draft may not be the draft of all drafts but unless alot of players do not come out this draft will clearly be better than last year. Morey clearly doesn't agree with you as at the deadline he was desperately trying to make deals for more 1st round picks. And your point to have too many draft picks. Morey obviously disagrees with you again as he wouldn't have filled our squad with 09ers to have a shot at finding a diamond in the rough. If he thought like you he should have traded that 2nd round pick that got us Parsons with Morris Twill and Budinger already on the squad. You say you love flexibility in the future for opportunities now just does not make sense. So make your argument about flexibility and your desire to make the playoffs. I do not root for this team to lose. I root for them to win but I am tired of being mediocre and so are a lot of fans. The Trailblazers figured that out about their fanbase and quickly remedied the problem. They dumped everyone they could and decided to build around LMA and Batum. Yeah the fans are pissed how thei team turned out this year. But this summer they will have 2 top ten picks and plenty of cap space. They might even steal Dragic away from us this summer. They certainly will have enough cap space to give him what he wants. Imagine next year if they start the season with Beal, one of the Zeller brothers Dragic LaMarcus and Batum as their starting squad. That's a young team with a future. They may lose another year or 2 but you can cheer for that team growing and getting better.
