RG3 blows Vick away as a passer. There is no comparison of their accuracy. I doubt RG3 will be lazy like Vick was as a young QB and I expect him to totally immerse himself in being the best he can possibly be. Regarding injury, Vick plays QB in a very physical way and puts his body on the line unnecessarily. IMO, he can blame himself for his injury woes. I doubt RG3 follows that path.
I think Luck clearly has the lower ceiling, but also a higher floor. RG3 seems a bit boom or bust to me, I never trust the stats of a Big 12 QB coming out, especially after seeing Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford getting their asses destroyed on a weekly basis over the past couple seasons. Granted, neither of them have NFL level receiving weapons around them right now, and Bradford has a particularly awful offensive line. RG3 has special talent, but there were also times he kind of melted down and tried to do too much with his feet or force throws when he didn't need to. I can see him being a guy who makes a lot of plays as a rookie, but has his fair share of turnovers and other mistakes. I think the learning curve will benefit Luck more, who seems like an instant plug in QB. Not to say Luck will be immune to rookie QB growing pains (few are), but having watched Luck play I think he is clearly the better decision maker at this point and will therefore probably not make as many mistakes as RG3. However, in 2-3 years I think Luck will prove to be a very good QB, tier 2 level on par with guys like Eli Manning and Matt Ryan. I think he has every instinct a good NFL QB should have, but will he be able to dissect a defense like Brady/Manning/Brees? It is impossible to tell until we've seen him play. My guess is RG3 will be a 20 TD / 20 turnover guy his first season (assuming he starts), but by his 3rd season he could become the next Randall Cunningham.
If not for injury, Oden would have been one of the top 3 or 4 centers in the league. Durant still would have been a better pick.
You do know that RG3 set an NCAA record for most consecutive attempts to start a career without an INT. And that by the 5th game he had more TDs than incomplete passes? I'm not sure where you're getting that he's going to be more turnover prone unless you're including possible fumbles from being more of a runner than Luck.
Yeah, again I'm not that impressed with the stats Big 12 QBs put up. Colt McCoy completed 80% of his passes against the **** defenses in that conference. I don't remember what game it was, but he seemed a little too "amped up" and threw a couple errant passes and fumbled to put his team in a hole when he had plenty of chances to bring them back. I think he'll need some refining (1-2 seasons) before he begins to reach his potential, whereas I think Luck will mature more quickly.
Start a career? Or start a season? I remember when he was on that "more TDs than incompletes" streak he was torching the pooptacular defenses Baylor played to begin this year, TCU (they eventually rounded into shape, but were awful to star the year), SFA, Rice, KSU... and then he had an off-game vs. ISU where that streak ended, and then he completely pooped the bed @ A&M.
Also for reference Oden/Durant was never a contest in my mind. Oden couldn't stay on the floor even when healthy at Ohio State because of fouls whereas Durant was the best College scorer I ever saw, even as a freshman. I told several people I would have traded T-mac for Durant on draft day.
I don't see turnovers being a huge problem. He had some bad throws against A&M and Kansas State (first pick last season). But he only had 17 interceptions in three seasons at Baylor. His precision is sick.
All scouts have said from last year that Luck is the highest rated QB since Elway. He is a SURE thing to become a franchise QB, barring injuries. I don't remember scouts saying Oden is the highest rated C since Hakeem or Shaq. The Luck hype going into the NFL is like what LBJ was going into the NBA. Agree for the most part on RG3. I think RG3 definitely has a higher ceiling in terms of potential, but a lot of guys have a higher ceiling in terms of potential. IF people remember, Jemarcus Russell had arguably the best pro days the NFL has ever seen; his potential was through the roof. Now, I'm not saying RG3 = Russell b/c he won't be. But I disagree on Luck as a tier 2 QB. Matt Ryan is an insult as a comparison, and Luck isn't as dumb as Eli (remember, it took Eli until THIS YEAR to finally start solving defenses on the fly and reducing the number of mistakes he makes per game). Luck is already a superb decision maker (I know I know, hard to project by what you see v. college defenses) b/c he has already been calling his own plays since his sophomore year. I think the way he approaches the game is very similar to Peyton Manning, and that's why I wished he would study under him for at least a year.
He's good at tucking and running. Getting out of the tackle box and throwing the ball away is obviously not going to be a problem with his ridic speed. He doesn't force much hence the incredibly low interception numbers.
Pro Days are pretty worthless in general. I think Luck has a keen sense of how to run an offense, but that isn't really going to help in in the NFL, every QB needs to know how to make the reads and call his own plays if he wants to be truly successful. To say he'll be like Peyton is too bold of a statement, nobody before or after Peyton will ever command an offense the way he does. I'd be hard pressed to say he'll ever be as good as Manning, Brady or Brees, but I do think he's a sure thing as far as a solid starting QB in the NFL. He's far from a sure-fire superstar QB in my opinion.
Well, what Peyton did in the NFL in terms of commanding his own offense was like how Luck did at Stanford. In a televised game v. USC, the damn coach even said his staff hasn't called an offensive play all year; Luck has been calling all the plays. Again, b/c he's in the same mold as Peyton in terms that, I really wanted him to study behind Peyton for a year in terms of game preparation. Well, it's always hard to predict how great a player will be (nobody thought Brady will be Brady). But in my opinion, the dude will be a franchise QB. How great he will be will depend on his growth as a player when he's in the NFL, and the experience he accumulates. But he will definitely be better than Matt Ryan.
Well I think Ryan is bottom Tier 2 level along with Romo and Schaub. Tier 2 is where I think Luck will be, only because Brady/Manning/Brees status is nearly impossible to get to because those guys are 3 of the greatest of all time. Matt Ryan and Luck have similar arm strength. Luck obviously can make the intermediate throws better, but will he have Roddy White and Julio Jones to go up and get it? Nope. Peyton put Marvin Harrison near Hall of Fame level, Reggie Wayne in countless Pro Bowls and turned guys like Brandon Stokely, Austin Collie, and Marcus Pollard to name a few into legitimate NFL threats. Will Luck be able to come in and immediately elevate the personnel around him? Highly unlikely.
Did you think Brady would be Brady when he was drafted in the 6th round and started on the bench? I'm sure you think he would be a nobody then. Again, it's hard to know how a career will shape out b/c a ton of factors come into play. For instance, Romo has tier 1 talent, but he lacks the killer instinct. Eli has the tier 1 talent, but lacks the smarts (he's finally getting it, and thus he possibly might make his way onto tier 1 soon). Ryan was going into tier 1 status but he's too much of a chicken and plays it safe way too much. For you to say a player tier 2 potential is already a lot. To get into tier 1 is just beyond the skills/talent as a lot of tier 2 players have that. You have to have the right system, killer instinct/balls, health...
Don't be daft now, Brady is the exception to the rule. How many other 6th round QBs ever became starters? We're both just talking out of our asses here. That is where I am placing Luck.
