[TrueHoop] Good read regarding Hou-Por trade

senter · Mar 15, 2012

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/38896/pity-the-fighters

Just saw this, it's a pretty good regarding today's trade between the Rockets and the Blazers. It's mostly about Portland so I posted it in the dish but there are a lot of nice points made about the Rockets, calling us hard working and mentions how we are doing things the right way.

We like sports because they are like life, but cleaner, with pretty uniforms, clear rules, in-your-face competition, instant justice and winners declared nightly.

We also like to see effort rewarded. That's something that happens on the court and in our daily lives. Doesn't the thought of little Derrick Rose hammer dunking over 7-footers in the NBA put a little bounce in your step at work? How could you really be scared to ask for a raise, or make a presentation, when he's willing to do that.

Similarly, don't you love to see a team painstakingly make its draft picks and trades and coaching hires and just have it all work out? The Grizzlies were called every name in the book when they traded Pau Gasol for no big names at all, but you're damn straight they lasted in last year's playoffs for a whole week longer than Pau and the Lakers. Evidently the pieces they gathered weren't so lousy after all. Good effort, Grizz. They took their lumps, they scrapped, they improved ... and they proved everybody wrong except the Thunder.

Something like that is what we all aspire to do, right?

Sports are awesome.

Consider one of Portland's trade deadline trades.

Perhaps the scarcest resource in sports is a useful NBA center. They just don't make a lot of seven-footers with elite athleticism. Marcus Camby is one of them. The Blazers traded Camby and his expiring contract for two players with expiring contracts who have never produced meaningfully and are virtual locks to be cut (Hasheem Thabeet and Jonny Flynn) and a poor-quality second-round pick.

Consider, also, that the two teams involved -- the Blazers and the Rockets -- have been locked in mortal combat for playoff positioning for half a decade or so.

If Portland wants cap space for next summer, simply keeping Camby would have done the trick. Gifting him needlessly to a rival, though, for the kind of pick that last year became ... Jon Diebler ... What is the point?

Of course, we all know the point. The Blazers are going in the tank, and this helps in the organizational mission to become a very, very bad team. You simply don't play wily veterans like Camby on teams like the Blazers who are playing to lose. It's a blemish on the venerable Camby's reputation, it doesn't serve the team's goals anyway, and if he gets hurt logging waste-of-time minutes it's the kind of NBA karma you might never escape. Bring on Thabeet.

Gerald Wallace is out, too, in what everyone agrees is a great trade. He's the kind of player any team would want, but the whole goal of rebuilding through the draft is getting the kind of draft pick only really bad teams like the Nets have. That was one of the best trades of the day.

Similarly, Nate McMillan is a real deal NBA professional who buttons his shirt all the way up, gets bossy in timeouts and coaches games with the conviction it's best to win them. So he's out too, whether out of mercy, respect, or acknowledgement that the love affair was over. Bring on Kaleb Canales, whom everybody in the organization loves, but some still refer to as "the video guy." You can't ask a guy like McMillan to captain a leaky ship like this. He's the kind of guy who will have a W-L record after his name until the day he dies.

Here's the crazy thing about this: As a Blazer fan, I think this loser of a strategy is a winner. I'm only sad they didn't go further. The team was not on a path to win a title. My conviction is that LaMarcus Aldridge should be traded, too. As a talented big-man All-Star in his prime he'll hurt the lottery positioning. But he might fetch some splendid cap space and picks.

We are conditioned to embrace this kind of strategy as sports fans. But it plays very poorly to people who buy tickets, and even worse in the world of sports-as-inspirational-metaphor-for-real-life.

How does this part of the sports world translate to our daily lives?

When my team was fighting like crazy every darned night, that felt a little like going to work and giving it my best even if it didn't always end well.

Ditching the good players and the coach, though ... that feels more like trumping up an injury to collect disability.

Whatever it is, it's not even one little bit scrappy.

And of course, this is not just the Blazers. Do you really think the Bobcats are doing everything they can to win, when their GM just took some time to explain that in keeping with the Thunder model, they were still focused on longer-term goals? I see the Nets playing Gerald Green long minutes, with better players resting, and I know what's up. There are similar oddities in Washington, Sacramento, Toronto and Detroit, and maybe some others besides. The NBA still owns the miserable New Orleans Hornets, and even the league's top officials have made noises about the long-term value of getting bad.

I'm not saying players are laying down, and maybe not even coaches. But the sad reality of the NBA system is that if you're the owner or GM of one of those teams, and you have a strategic bone in your body, losing a lot is at least one good approach, if not the very best approach.

We all get why it's so. Who wants those terrible teams to be locked in the basement forever? Throw them a bone, right?

Wrong. Not because I don't want bad teams to get good, but because this approach doesn't do the job. As the league explained again and again during the lockout, this sport has the worst parity of all the majors, and in particular this sport has bad mobility of teams. Bad teams have a hard time getting good -- I would argue that's because those bad teams have bad ownership and/or management, and there is no cure for repeated poor decision making.

What's more, the entire principle is flawed. Not to get all libertarian on you, but governments have long wanted to have as many citizens as possible enjoy financial security. And I think we can agree that somehow the approach that promises the least to the poor -- capitalism -- is the one that did the most for them. The "you figure it out" of the United States ended up working better than the "let me help you with that" of the communist block.

Getting your act together, being smart, and working really hard is what works wherever you are. The more people who do that the better. How many incentives should be set up to encourage that? Maybe all of them.

That's what works in the real world. There's no special reason to believe sports would be meaningfully different. Handing out draft picks to teams for losing has always been crazy, even if your goal is to help bad teams get good.

Malcolm Gladwell was onto this years ago (and now he has Jeff Van Gundy on board, among many others) in a conversation with Bill Simmons: "No economist in his right mind would ever endorse the football and basketball drafts the way they are structured now. They are a moral hazard in spades. If you give me a lottery pick for being an atrocious GM, where's my incentive not to be an atrocious GM?"

Meanwhile, consider the Rockets. They have dealt with all kinds of injuries to Yao Ming and many others. But have made trade after trade, year after year, just trying to win a few more games, and to get a tiny bit better. They have always been competing and scrapping, and by the looks of things always will be. And do you know what's sad? In the NBA, teams almost never progress from pretty good, like the Rockets and Blazers have been, to excellent. It's the jump we allege every team can make, but it's one of the least likely in sports.

So remember this Camby trade, and watch the Rockets and Blazers from here forward. They're racing to be the first to make it back to the Finals. One of them is trying to win by competing hard every night, the other is trying something that nobody in their right mind would want to watch night in and night out.

As much as I appreciate the strategy in Portland, as a fan of competition, I wish I could support a league that inspired 30 teams to approach things like Houston.
Click to expand...

disguyman · Mar 15, 2012

yeah, but who will win a championship first? who will get more tickets sold?

RedNation · Mar 15, 2012

Portland is doing things the "right way." Honestly though, I'd rather watch us win and make the playoffs and be pleasantly surprised. I have always said that we have our young guys who can develop. If we tank, we still have to wait for our draft picks to develop. We have guys including Dragic, lee, lowry, parsons, bud, patterson, montiejunas, smith, morris. All of these guys can develop into something. If we "tank" we will just have a set of new guys who would have to develop. I'm fine with what houston is doing now. get the young guys some playoff experience so they can handle it when they are fully developed

senter · Mar 15, 2012

championship? tough one. I'll say us because I'll take the potential of our young guys over theirs. We already know what kind of player LMA is, and that alone isn't going to win them anything. If donuts, parsons, patterson, lowry, and lee all develop together I can see us having a shot.

but tickets?

tickets?

them. definitely them.

Carl Herrera · Mar 15, 2012

The question raised by Henry here is not whether tanking is a viable or even smart strategy under the current system. The question is whether the NBA should maintain the current system, which gives great incentives to tank.

I agree with him that the answer is "no." The league needs to stop subsidizing the bad teams and start encouraging teams to compete, because competition is what sports sell.

Don FakeFan · Mar 15, 2012

I too would support Houston's way of competing if I was not a fans of Rockets.

durvasa · Mar 15, 2012

Maybe the Rockets should have tried trading for Aldridge. That would help the Blazers more with their tanking strategy.

Ricksmith · Mar 15, 2012

Nice article, thanks for posting. If Portland wants to really tank, I'm sure Morey would gladly take Aldridge off their hands...

Juck_The_Fazz · Mar 15, 2012

Don FakeFan said: ↑

I too would support Houston's way of competing if I was not a fans of Rockets.
Click to expand...

i would even support it if i was a fan

sealclubber1016 · Mar 15, 2012

The NBA kinda has it hands tied.

Superstar determine championships. It appears superstars want to go to certain markets. The only other method is to get lucky in the draft, which tanking gives you the best chance to win.

I would make the lottery a true lottery, include teams that go out in the first round. Effectively a 22 team lottery where everybody has an equal shot.

This will give teams zero incentive to tank. Win as many games as possible and hope you get lucky. This way a team like the rockets doesn't get punished for competing.

senter · Mar 15, 2012

sealclubber1016 said: ↑

The NBA kinda has it hands tied.

Superstar determine championships. It appears superstars want to go to certain markets. The only other method is to get lucky in the draft, which tanking gives you the best chance to win.

I would make the lottery a true lottery, include teams that go out in the first round. Effectively a 22 team lottery where everybody has an equal shot.

This will give teams zero incentive to tank. Win as many games as possible and hope you get lucky. This way a team like the rockets doesn't get punished for competing.
Click to expand...

The problem with any ideas for fixing the draft situation is how do the terrible teams improve? Look at the hornets from this year. Would anyone say that they are "tanking"? I wouldn't. They have been in a lot of hard fought close games this season (including the overtime games against us and most recently against the lakers). They wanted to win, they tried, they just don't have the talent. They will be "rewarded" this year with a high draft pick, but its because of their record, not how hard they fought. Coincidentally, they deserve a high draft pick in both the current system and any new proposed system, but they wouldn't be rewarded for it in a new system because their record is bad. And if they never get a good draft pick then, barring smart trades and free agent signings, they will remain bad. I'm using this years hornets because they were the first bad record team that plays hard that I could think of but I'm just trying to make a general point

(you could obviously argue that eric gordon being injured has a lot to do with it and their record would be better if he were healthy..but... ahh...)

I dont know what I'm saying anymore. I'm hungry and falling asleep at work so please ignore me haha

redwhiteone · Mar 15, 2012

Nice read. I really hope the trade would benefit Portland. Hoping for the best competition for both teams.

PuzzledFan · Mar 15, 2012

sealclubber1016 said: ↑

The NBA kinda has it hands tied.

Superstar determine championships. It appears superstars want to go to certain markets. The only other method is to get lucky in the draft, which tanking gives you the best chance to win.

I would make the lottery a true lottery, include teams that go out in the first round. Effectively a 22 team lottery where everybody has an equal shot.

This will give teams zero incentive to tank. Win as many games as possible and hope you get lucky. This way a team like the rockets doesn't get punished for competing.
Click to expand...

I think I might like a 22 team true and equal lottery for the first ten spots in the draft, but then picks 11-30 go to the other teams in order of finish, not reverse order. World champions get pick #11, runners-up get #12, etc. But we'd have to have an honest commisioner. No bent envelopes, etc.

Garner · Mar 15, 2012

durvasa said: ↑

Maybe the Rockets should have tried trading for Aldridge. That would help the Blazers more with their tanking strategy.
Click to expand...

untouchable.

but you knew that....

right?

dakeem1 · Mar 15, 2012

To stop tanking, they should give the most lottery balls to the best team who doesn't make the playoffs.

After pick 14, they should go in reverse order for playoff teams and give the best team the lowest pick etc

MONON · Mar 15, 2012

dakeem1 said: ↑

To stop tanking, they should give the most lottery balls to the best team who doesn't make the playoffs.

After pick 14, they should go in reverse order for playoff teams and give the best team the lowest pick etc
Click to expand...

I like this idea.

OremLK · Mar 15, 2012

It's a bad idea because then teams can so easily get stuck in Bobcat-land and NEVER get out.

I definitely think they should make tanking riskier business though. There should be a legit chance that you drop to the back of the lottery even if you're the #1 pick. As it stands your lowest possible pick is three picks behind your seed. Spread that sh** out more, give back end lottery teams a better chance to win the lottery and high lottery teams a worse chance + a greater chance to fall farther in the draft.

Easy · Mar 15, 2012

The system definitely rewards tanking and punishes hard working competitiveness. I have no answer for it, but it has got to be changed. I am tired of it.

MrRoboto · Mar 15, 2012

sealclubber1016 said: ↑

The NBA kinda has it hands tied.

Superstar determine championships. It appears superstars want to go to certain markets. The only other method is to get lucky in the draft, which tanking gives you the best chance to win.
Click to expand...

Tanking is a multi-year rebuilding process. With no guarantee that your draft pick is going to be a superstar. Hell, even getting superstars is no guarantee that you are going to win a championship (see NY, LA, Miami, etc.)

We now have an interesting real world scientific project to watch:
Portland vs. Houston

Let's see who gets to the finals first...

LFE171 · Mar 15, 2012

dakeem1 said: ↑

To stop tanking, they should give the most lottery balls to the best team who doesn't make the playoffs.

After pick 14, they should go in reverse order for playoff teams and give the best team the lowest pick etc
Click to expand...

JVG has stated this before and I wholeheartedly agree. You punish teams for barely missing the playoffs by...what? reducing their chances to get better and over the hump.

Parity lies with a) rewarding losing by giving better odds to a franchise player and b) dumbass diva players who all want to go to big markets cities.

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