I agree with this - but I also think a VP pick can increase base turnout more than it can turn independents. VPs are red meat attack dogs and can stir up your hardcore supporters. But independents don't really ID with a party by definition, and they are going to be more driven by the Presidential candidate than anything else, in my opinion. Can you name a recent VP that caused independents to shift towards a particular candidate?
I think Biden helped in swing states from Florida to Pennsylvania and Ohio. I think he was reassuring to independents and where Romney needs some good will Obama needed people to feel safe voting for him. I expect Biden turned some independents there. And I think Biden was more important in persuading independents to Obama's cause than persuading the base because the base was already very much there. I think Cheney might have provided the same benefit to Bush that Biden did to Obama, giving heft to a campaign that might otherwise have felt rather fluffy. Again, though I know the base was happy about Cheney those very same people were going to vote Bush either way. Some independents probably moved over to Bush after becoming more comfortable his White House would be a serious one. I think the Clinton-Gore ticket was something that hadn't been tried before, two southern moderates, but the thing was they were both young and smart and freshness was the order of the day around the time of that particular recession and I'd say Gore helped Clinton well more with independents than he did with Democrats. Again, Clinton was going to get those Democrats. But those on the fence (mostly indies) didn't know Clinton. And they did know Gore. And they were comfortable with him. The Biden effect, you might say. Those are just the last few winning VP's. Of the losing ones I think there is a case to be made that some of them moved the needle for independents to some degree by addressing not something superficial like geography (when was the last time that mattered? 1960?) or something voters don't typically think about like ideology but as a nudge to those voters that were thinking, "Well, I like the guy but he's sort of inexperienced." Or in the case of Romney, "he's sort of experienced but I don't like the guy." But mostly the losing VP's were selected for superficial reasons, like Bush-Quayle (a hale young man to balance one that was starting to seem old and infirm) or McCain-Pailin (a desperation move designed to make exciting a very dour campaign - still, it worked better than the opposite strategy of Dole-Kemp). It's funny to think about how McCain was the moderate in that race and Romney the conservative. And how it was McCain's selection of Palin that began the process of the party going completely crazy -- a process by which, in only four years, their far right candidate moved farther and farther right and wound up their far left candidate. Politics be acting crazy.
I'm not looking for any narrative and my only interest in the GOP VP pick is a prurient one. I have about as much of an agenda as I did when speculating on "Who Shot Mr. Burns?" But if you have polls that contradict my recollection of events, please post them. I'll happily admit I'm wrong in the various cases I probably am. I'm going from memory. I'm not going back to check the record. If you'd like to, be my guest.
Sure thing. Here is a list of polling averages on dates leading up to the election in 2008. Sarah Palin was announced as the VP nom on 8/29. News of Lehman Brothers being on the brink of collapse surfaced on 9/14. As you can see, the the interim period was when McCain had his strongest showing in the polls.
Ron Paul supporters seize control of Clark County GOP Paul won 19.2% of the straw poll in Clark County but seems to have around half of the delegates going to the state convention from here. These County and State conventions are going to decide the delegates that will go to the National convention in Tampa. It is something to keep an eye on...
Yep, McCain faded when the economy went into the tank and he suspended his campaign and came out in favor of TARP. After that it was game over. He was surging prior.
But as you can also see, McCain had faded and Obama had already pulled even or regained a lead before 9/14. What McCain got was the standard convention bump that lasts a week or two, as well as an excitement bump from Palin. But as fivethirtyeight.com noted at the time, these bumps are almost always temporary and fade after a few weeks. It's just coinicidence that Lehman occurred just as the bump was fading. No one on the Obama side was panicking from those polls. If you look at the end of August, Obama got a similar short-lived bump from his Democratic convention, and I don't think anyone would attribute that to Joe Biden.
Rick Santorum tells someone to vote for Ron Paul.... <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/G106jlvZYmQ" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
^^ Santorum is being honest. Want limited Govt, vote for Ron Paul. Because the rest of the candidates will expand govt even more, just like our POTUS.
OMGWTFBBQ. This man is absolutely r****ded. That he has a following is a testament to the USA's rapidly declining rank in regards to education.
It's Mitt though, so he'll flip-flop back in forth a few times. I really think he needs a social conservative to win, but he'll probably pick a hispanic. If Santorum ends up getting the nomination, who does he pick as his VP? A fellow social conservative?
Rick Santorum's campaign releases his 'Pubic Schedule"... http://www.businessinsider.com/oops-rick-santorums-pubic-schedule-2012-3 You can't make this stuff up....:grin:
new poll out today that Obama's approval rating is back at 50%. I don't see any of the Republican candidates winning. Mitt just cant relate to people and Santorum is just too damn religious to win. Mitt is like the Democrats John Kerry. A bit awkward and cant relate to the common voter.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4191546...al-rating-pct-reutersipsos-poll/#.T1_OXvWfn1V You mean the poll of adults with a 51/39/10 D/R/I sample? In 2008 it was 39/22/29...
well only way I see Obama not being re-elected is if unemployment and the economy take go into the crapper again. Let's face the truth that the Republicans don't have anyone that appeals to voters. I personally would never vote for Santorum since he is just too religious and I disagree with him on most social-conservative issues. Let's just say Mitt wins the nomination since most likely it will be Mitt. He just reminds me of John Kerry a few years back. His own party cant rally behind him because he's more of a moderate and the independents cant rally behind him because he just comes off his awkard and stiff. Very much like John Kerry. Let's face it in this day and age in order to be president you have to likeable and present yourself a certain way. Agree or disagree with Reagan that was one reason why people loved him.
