Speaking of health didn't Griffin have ACL surgery? He relies more on his athleticism than Luck so There's that.
I think some of you are missing the point on the Oden/Durant comparison. Yes, Oden had has bad luck with injuries. No, that's not the only reason it was a poor pick for Portland. Durant is one of the top 5 players in the league and one of the best pure scorers of all-time. Oden was not going to reach that level. Even against collegiate competition, Oden was merely a good (not great) offensive player. That was why I said I'd take Durant at the time - it concerned me that Oden wasn't able to develop his post game to a dominant level and become a focal point, even in college. Centers are rare, yes, but true franchise players are even more rare. There were plenty of signs that Durant would be this kind of player heading into the draft. However, fans (and maybe Portland) were so entrenched with the long-standing idea of Oden as the clear #1 that they didn't have an open mind. That's where I see some similarities here. Some of the pro-Luck arguments (better arm, really?) are so strange that it seems like folks are looking for reasons to support their agenda rather than going through an objective analysis.
No. I'm saying that if I were running the Colts front office, I'd pick RG3 over Luck because he is a more talented quarterback, even if he hasn't run a pro-style offense.
The problem with the Oden/Luck comparison is that they are sort of on opposite ends of the spectrum coming into the league. Oden was a project, to some extent, with very high upside. He was a defensive center who everyone said would develop an offensive game over time (why that was the case given that he hadn't in his first 10-12 years of playing basketball, I have no idea). Luck, on the other hand, is about as complete a player as you could have. The whole reason for picking him is that he's the opposite of a project - he's as league-ready as anyone in a long time. I think Luck is more like Durant, while RG3 is more like Oden in that he's expected to have the highest upside but people feel that he has more to work on to get there.
I'd say its closest to Manning/Leaf.... Both Manning/Luck were complete QB's that were the clear cut #1 pick for 2 years. BOth had great college years but couldnt beat a particular team. (Florida/Oregon) Both did not win the Heisman but got fairly close... Leaf popped onto the scene for his arm and won at Washington State. Not exactly a powerhouse neither is Baylor. There was some talk over taking Leaf over Manning as there is Griffin over Luck but in both cases the Colts will take the guy that everybody wanted before the season started. I'd go Luck I like RG3 I think the Vikings should really consider taking him instead of riding with Ponder. But Luck is the comlete deal I expect him to be a top 10 QB next year..
Except leaf was pretty much an ******* and there were a lot of questions about his character. Most every team would have taken oden over durant. Oden had a great combine and durant couldn't lift 185 a single time. Oden was a very very good prospect. Here is what I could find on what people were saying back then: Nbadraft.net: Benefited greatly from the NBAs newly implemented draft rule making high school players ineligible. In any draft sans LeBron James and Greg Oden of the past 10 years, he is the consensus top pick There is not a lot of people who would have picked over Durant despite what they are saying now. No.1 pick QBs don't usually turn out that good. So maybe rg3 will turn out better.
Centers are harder to find, and you don't have to be great offensively. Howard is easily the best center in the league right now, and he is very limited offensively. On a team that already had talented offensive players on the perimeter and PF, it was more important to have a player that could go out and get you 15-20 points and 10-15 boards while not commanding the ball and protecting the paint.
One NFL scout insists that Baylor QB Robert Griffin III "cannot play quarterback" in the pros and is a poorer-throwing version of Michael Vick. Another scout quoted in the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel article linked below is very high on Griffin, so take this with a grain of salt. "He cannot play quarterback," said the scout who's down on RG3. "He's just running around winging it. He has no idea how to play quarterback. He's got no vision. He's got no accuracy. No touch. Anything you look for in an NFL quarterback, he doesn't have it. You want him to run around and throw the ball and just keep running, he can do that. He's (Michael) Vick, but not as good a thrower." http://www.jsonline.com/sports/pack...tml?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>RG3 ran the 40 in an unofficial smokin' 4.38 seconds.</p>— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) <a href="https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/173773317168312320" data-datetime="2012-02-26T14:16:02+00:00">February 26, 2012</a></blockquote> <script src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Not really a great analogy since they don't play the same position; Portland drafted Oden not only because he was theoretically safer due to size, but he was exactly who they needed next to Roy & Aldridge at the time.
IMO, there are zero question marks with Luck. He's got ideal size, great athleticism, can make all the throws, has started three seasons in a pro-style offense, and possesses great pocket presence. He goes through his progressions as well as any amateur QB I've ever seen (though Stanford's O-line helps with that). There are no questions about his makeup. He's the safer pick. He WILL be a good NFL QB. RGIII might be better. He is more gifted physically. But you can't choose potential over a sure thing when you're drafting a franchise Quarterback.
I think Luck is going to a make a fine quarterback but I still don't think he's a sure thing. I just don't think he's all that accurate on his long throws. I've seen him short arm a lot of deep passes where his receivers have to slow down or stop to catch the ball. I don't think it has to do with arm strength. I think he just lacks touch on the deep ball. I also don't agree on his ability to make reads. He gets lots of time playing behind Stanford's line and he doesn't look all that great when there is a lot of pressure outside taking off with the ball. Everyone thought that Bradford was a can't miss and look at him this last year. You just never know with quarterbacks. For people that compare Luck with Elway and Manning. I just don't see it. When I saw Elway and Manning in college, they looked men playing with boys on the field. Luck doesn't look that way to me. Edit: I also want to add that Luck could never make that play against Oklahoma. 45 yards across the field from the opposite direction where he was running, and it was effortless. I don't know many pro quarterbacks that could make that throw.
Only problem with RGIII is his physique... Although he didn't "take off" as much in his junior year as his freshman year, he still worries me as far as taking a hit... NFL blitzes come from all angles... I'm curious to see how his body reacts after taking a shot from DB's coming full speed..... Remember how he constantly got up slow after taking contact while at Baylor.. That concerns me
^That usually came from running the ball. It's the same thing with Vick who can't stay healthy. Griffin limping is still faster than a healthy QB though. He has shown that he can take a hit throughout his career.
