Giving up on the Presidency, GOP eyes the Senate in 2012

his Gulf of America drilling ban was a terrible decision

 

I just google it.

The increase in domestic drilling was almost entirely in areas for which the Obama administration exercised no authority, as oil production on federal land declined by 11 percent in fiscal year 2011, according to a study by the Institute on Energy Research (IER), a free-market energy think tank. But oil production on state lands increased that year by 14 percent and increased by 12 percent on private lands.

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/oba...tic-drilling-not-accurate-say-energy-analysts

So yes it did expand under Obama.


"There is practically nothing that Washington can do that would materially change the price of fuel in this country," said Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov, noting that the United States produces about 5 percent of the world's petroleum while consuming about 20 percent. "Given that imbalance, there is simply no policy shift that could plausibly come from the federal government that can significantly change that dynamic."


http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2011/05/14/MNU91JGAM7.DTL

So how did Canada drill themselves out of the reccesion and why is it hard for the US to do so??

 

And yet oil production has increased under Obama while it decreased under Bush.

 

Found the reason!!

"Actually, the President doesn’t have that kind of pricing power. The more likely reason behind the price increase, though certainly less compelling as a political argument, is the recent spate of refinery closures in the U.S. Over the past year, refineries have faced a classic margin squeeze. Prices for Brent crude have gone up, but demand for gasoline in the U.S. is at a 15-year low. That means refineries haven’t been able to pass on the higher prices to their customers."


"As a result, companies have chosen to shut down a handful of large refineries rather than continue to lose money on them. Since December, the U.S. has lost about 4 percent of its refining capacity, says Fadel Gheit, a senior oil and gas analyst for Oppenheimer. That month, two large refineries outside Philadelphia shut down: Sunoco’s plant in Marcus Hook, Pa., and a ConocoPhillips plant in nearby Trainer, Pa. Together they accounted for about 20 percent of all gasoline produced in the Northeast."


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/angry-about-high-gas-prices--blame-shuttered-oil-refineries.html

 

Canada didn't drill itself out of the recession, Canadian oil exports in 2010 were actually smaller than they were in 2008 by value.

the nation wasn't dumb enough to have casino banks run the whole show, and had a relatively tight regulatory framework. That combined with aggressive Keynesian action pretty much got rid of whatever aftershocks there were.

 

It would be very ironic if the House went back under Democratic control, while the Senate fell to the GOP.

 

I think it is very likely that the House will go Democratic. The Senate looks grim, based on the math, but I'm hoping the Obama landslide will squeak in a Democratic Senate majority. If that happens, the icing on the cake would be a new leader in the Senate. I'm so sick of the goofball from Nevada. And yes, I'm predicting a big Obama victory, unless there's a new Republican candidate that enters late, which is not impossible, but improbable.

 

Or maybe government can just give out a gas subsidy for the low income

 

Free gas on election day?

 

I understand why Republicans would do this but it would be a mistake IMO. The presidential election isn't lost yet.

 

"The Dubious Strategy"

Run idiots for the Presidency that are sure to be defeated. Use this fake primary to hammer America with the most insane radical conservative ideas on the national stage for a year until mildly crazy seems normal and acceptable. Run your congressional and Senate candidates as "our local boys, Washington outsiders", with the standard "only way to stop socialism" screed.

profit!

 

The article doesn't say anything about the GOP giving up on the presidency, that's just Mark adding his own two cents as he sets up the link knowing people won't go read the article.

Millions are pouring into senate races yes because the GOP thinks they can flip the Senate. That does not mean they don't think they can win the WH (Though I don't think they can). Do you believe Democrats are not pouring money into Senate and house races? If they are, does that mean they've given up on the presidency? It would be stupid to not dump money into the Senate races when it looks like they can flip them.

 

If everything stays the same, then the election is pretty much lost for the republicans....possibly worse than Mccain.

Romney was never a strong candidate, but when he's struggling against Santorum, that does not bode well for him. The republican candidates ARE that weak.

Additionally, America is finally hitting bottom and coming out of recovery...something that should have happened 2 years ago. The length of time it took this administrator to reach this point and the money spend will be irreverent when all we will be hearing about is job growth.

 

SMH. The number of wells drilled has accelerated under Obama. It's nothing to do with Obama or Bush, either. Many of the new wells created are for Shale Gas though. There hasn't been as much production with the liquids like oil, though.

Even though the number of oil wells drilled per year has tripled from 12k to 35k, the oil production is flat. They are making the same amount of oil with triple the number of wells. It's costing more money to drill for it, so prices are not going to go down.

Under Bush, it took a nose dive in late 2008 after prices collapsed and the recession was well under way. Many wells were canceled, because they were no longer profitable.

Drill Drill Drill has been happening more under Obama than Bush.

 

So even after new domestic drilling gas remains high, maybe its becuase our currency inflation?? But most american working middle class and working poor does not recieve any cost of living adjudsment. So the majority will pay even more for gasoline. That will not sit well for the amrican consumer.

 

The graph shows that oil production is at 5.5 million barrels per gallon in 2011 vs 5 mil in 2008, even though the number of wells tripled. If the number of barrels of oil were tripled to 15 mil for the same number of wells, the prices would drop.

For the cheap energy prices from new wells, we want to look at the natural gas production. The wells are producing tons of natural gas from shale with hydraulic fracturing, not so much oil.

Here are the monthly natural gas spot prices adjusted in 2012 dollars. While natural gas has dropped to the lowest level since 1999. They are pulling in 25% more natural gas than 2006 with 2.48 million cu. ft vs 1.9 million cu feet.

 

Don't need to give up the Presidency when Obama can't crack 50% against Romney. But the Senate is more important.

GOP will flip NE, ND, FL, MO, MT,

Dems can only flip MA and that's a tossup.

If gas prices spike and tank the economy like in 2008 or the eurozone crashes and Romney is the nominee, GOP will flip NM, VA, PA, OH, WI, longshots in MI, WV, and WA.

What you need is a larger Tea Party caucus in the Rubio/Paul/Lee/DeMint/Toomey/Johnson mold. Jeff Flake is a shoo-in to replace the hapless John Kyle in AZ. Ted Cruz is a possibility in Texas if he can get by Dewhurst in the primary.

 

I agree it's silly to give up the Presidency now - way too much can happen. But Obama has cracked 50% in at least 4 different polls this month vs Romney:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

The problem with Tea Party caucuses is that they are fairly extreme. The Senate is a better place for them because of the stability you get in the Senate, but the huge House GOP Tea Party caucus is the reason the Dems have a reasonable chance of taking back the House if there's a strong election for Democrats. It would be primarily the tea partiers that get thrown out because they are unpopular and won in a lot of swing districts in 2010.