There is no way in hell that either Santorum or Mittens wins against Obama. Who is in their way Ron Paul, will get 12% to 15% of the vote. But if both Paul and Obama ever have a chance to debate it will be epic.
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Let's take into account two important things which might help Romney secure a win: 1) the anti-Obama vote 2) the "enthusiasm gap", or apathy among the democrat base In the 2008 election, there were plenty of voters excited about Obama, and also plenty who were strongly anti-bush and anti-congressional republicans. The Republican brand was about as appealing as a sack of dogsh** that year. At the same time, the republican base was disillusioned with Bush and apathetic about McCain. Thus, lower republican turnout in the voting booth. In 2012, there's little chance Obama will have the same over-the-top enthusiastic support from the left that he did in 2008. He will have plenty of support, but we're not going to see crazy voter turnout in blue districts like we did before. Furthermore, this year there will be significant anti-Obama sentiment among independents. How much, I guess we'll find out. Santorum would have at least as many negatives among independents as Obama, likely more IMO. And there's no way you win a national election with just the base supporting you. Furthermore, Santorum would motivate the dem base even more than Obama could on his own. There would be a strong anti-Santorum vote. Even a national/global disaster could not grab the presidency for him IMO. Why anybody thinks this dude has a shot at the presidency is beyond me. Toxic. Romney, however, might win more independents than Obama. Although the base is not excited about him, we may still see turnout from repub base voters who are more anti-Obama than pro-Romney. I can see that happening. Combine that with reduced enthusiasm among the left base and a slightly lower dem turnout in the voting booth, and maybe Romney has a shot. Romney will still have to explain his flip-flopping on most important issues, and Romneycare, etc. No pundits are scratching their heads wondering what Obama's game plan is vs Romney, it's pretty damn obvious. Despite the recent bailout number (two, three, four?) for Greece, it's still quite possible that we will see a European economic disaster that will drag the entire world into another recession. That could do it for Romney as well.
This tells you everything you need to know about bigtex, he throws out some half thought out statements then waits for people to argue with him, and is actually confused when no one does.
Now that I've written that post, it occurs to me: As much as a pain in the ass Fox News and the conservative talk radio circuit is for Obama and all dem politicians, they should write a big thank you letter to them. This self-contained conservative echo chamber, with it's own set of facts, emphasis on fear-mongering, and whipping the base into a frenzy over every single thing the president says and does, has in fact weakened the republican party. In some cases, this is conscious. For example some very popular conservative blogs like redstate are anti-"establishment" republicans. Then there are Tea Party politicians who have run and unseated so-called establishment republicans. In other cases, the voice of the most extreme elements of the right have become so loud, that moderation has become toxic when running in republican primaries (see: Huntsman). Almost every single republican candidate for president is a complete and total joke. Santorum? Bachman? GINGRICH? If anyone told you four years ago these people would even be in the conversation, you'd laugh in their face.
This is exactly right. We see it right here. basso, l'il t, esteban, et al hurt their cause because they spout ridiculous nonsense that is easily refuted when challenged outside the wingnut echo chamber.
Hey Ron Paulites/Libertarians You Don't Have to Support the 1% Now I know that most libertarians are into trickle down-- or in many cases don't really care if any of it trickles down-- and market fundamentalism which has always been shown to lead to a a small percentage with all the money and the great majority working for them for peanuts. Historically this has been the main source of funding for their think tanks and publications. However, recently Paul has been attracting new followers, who aren't in the 1% and who realize that they are not likely to be in the one percent. who seem to be oriented towards his civil liberties and foreign policy positions. It must be a source of some cognitive dissonance to have to support economics for the 1% and the corporations that make money off of war. Join the liberal left and you can be for civil liberties, a humane,non-imperialistic foreign policy and you don't have to support economics for the 1%, billionaires controlling our elections, wars for oil and military contractor profits. Note: I said "liberal left" and this does not mean being an uncritical Obama supporter, or even an Obama supporter at all, though he is better than the party Ron Paul hangs out with even on civil liberties and foreign policy, though not nearly good enough.
The problem is people overestimate the power of the executive.... But I know he can get our troops home, and begin to use our military for defense, not offense.
There is an inherent fallacy in what you are attempting to do, Htownhero, which is engage tinytexxx in an honest discussion. What you fail to realize is that he has no interest in doing that. He never has an interest in doing that, not in D&D. But nice try, and good luck in the future, when perhaps you'll attempt to engage in a conversation with someone who enjoys conversations, and isn't here just trolling for their own amusement.
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nice try the truth is that he, nor any of you flaming libs, can refute my points about how Obama has failed.
If you notice, everytime Romney listens to Ron Paul talk his brain starts to hurt. Also, another asterisk in Romney's victory in Maine: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/...usnwr201202170217recountfeb21,0,4219570.story
Say what? How old are you? Clearly 2004 was before your time. I don't believe a running an effective campaign will lift Romney over Obama, but it would put him within striking distance so that Obama better not stumble. Keep in mind there are more than 8 months before the election. A LOT of things will change by then.
A big thank you to all that took the time to answer my question. It's good to hear how the other side views things, something I think we should all do more of.
Only 22 so 2008 was the first time I voted. I'm not sure if you're slamming Bush or Kerry but if it's an attack on Bush. I've only read up on the 2000 election for some case study in a class. Anyways I'm not saying it's impossible for Romney to win with a successful campaign, I just find it unlikely also. Not to many people are enthusiastic about him or he would already be the clear candidate. I've usually voted GOP but I will have to really read up on the both of them to make a decision. After seeing the Tax proposals Romney took a huge hit. Yes if something extreme happens in the next few months the GOP might have a battle cry, but as of right now what can they do? Bash gays and talk about fetal rights? Or lie about how they will lower the deficit?
The party he hangs out with? Haha. Yeah - the GOP establishment and Paul are the best of friends. Just say no to big-gov Progressive liars and thieves. Your possessions belong to you, not them. Greece aint the word. The ACLU has rated Ron Paul higher than Obama in respect to civil liberties. Unlike Obama, Ron Paul is an extremely outspoken critic on current Foreign Policy, NDAA, Patriot Act, SOPA, The War on Drugs, Bailouts to the 1%, and the threat of invasive government. Now imagine these warnings and criticisms actually coming from the mouth of our next President.
Will Ron Paul speak out and repudiate the GOP? Will he run as third party? Will he pledge not to support the GOP nominee and urge his followers to not do so? One of these guys a real liberal will run who will have Ron Paul's civil liberty and foreign policy stands without the economics for the 1% and I would be surprised to see more than 10% of the Ron Pualies vote for him and of course expect Ron Paul to stick with the GOP. Do you even wonder at all why Ron Paul has stuck with the GOP including 20 years ago when you had Dems who stood much more clearly for civil liberties than the GOP candidates? Ron Paul's action speak louder than his words throughout the years on what he thinks is most important. You've been had if you think Ron Paul is mainly about civil liberties and not GOP economics. I suspect that like Ron you like to all of a sudden emphasize the civil liberties issues and down play the economics for the 1%. The movers and shakers in the 1% know that objectively speaking Ron Paul is their guy, too, just about as much as Romney and Santorum, where it really counts for them--money--otherwise they would just kick him out of the GOP and not let him sit with them in Congress.
The 1% like medical insurance and failing energy companies with sunbeam logos that profit from Dems... End the Marxist income tax to end the subsidies, bailouts and war profiteering. Ron Paul has only one billionaire donor (who happens to be gay) and he just got him the other day. It is easy to see who is really controlled by the 1%. (hint: He has the blue bar)
Will Ron Paul speak out and repudiate the GOP? Will he run as third party? Will he pledge not to support the GOP nominee and urge his followers to not do so? You've been had if you think Ron Paul is mainly about civil liberties and not GOP economics. I suspect that like Ron you like to all of a sudden emphasize the civil liberties issues and down play the economics for the 1%. The movers and shakers know that objectively speaking Ron Paul is there guy, too, otherwise they would just kick him out of the GOP and not let him sit with them in Congress. One of these days a real liberal will run and be far better than Obama or certainly any GOP candidate polling at higher than 15%. Ron will dutifully support the winner of the GOP nomination as he has done for over 25 years, including pro-war anti-civil liberties types like Dubya
