Rockets Strength of Schedule 1st vs. 2nd Half of Season

Given that the Rockets are exactly at the half-way point of the season, I decided to take a look at how difficult the 2nd half of the schedule is compared to the first half.

I took the Rockets schedule from basketball-reference.com, and entered the "SRS" (a "power ranking" metric that accounts for margin of victory and strength of schedule) for each of the Rockets opponent. The Rockets's own SRS so far is 2.02, which has them ranked 12th in the NBA.


http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/HOU/2012_games.html


The following are some of the results:

1. The mean SRS for the Rockets 1st half opponents was .53, for the 2nd half opponents, the mean is .32. Not a huge difference.

2. Given that mean is affected by outliers (like Charlotte's -13.94 SRS), I looked at the median also. The median SRS for the Rockets 1st half opponents = 1.54, the median SRS for the Rockets 2nd half opponents =1.65. Not a very big difference.

Also, not suprising that the Rockets opponent SRS tends to be above average (the average = 0), given that the team plays in the tougher Western Conference.

3. After looking at the above, I thought that the median and mean may not be that illuminating, given that the Rockets play individual teams rather than the "average" opponent. So, I took a look at the distribution of opponents in the top, middle and bottom 1/3 of the NBA in terms of SRS. In the first half, the distribution was 12 (top 10), 12 (middle 10), and 9 (bottom 10). In the upcoming 2nd half, the distribution will be 15, 7 and 10.

Seems that the Rockets will not have an easy road ahead, given that almost 1/2 of their upcomings games are against top-10 teams.

4. I created the following graph of opponent SRS from game 1 to game 66:



As we know, the first 10 games were difficult (the line being high = difficult opponets). In the upcomign schedule, the Rockets have an easy stretch in games 40-42, but otherwise really doesn't play two consecutive "easy" games for the rest of the season. The stretch from games 45-55 (esp. games 51-55) and 60-62 look especially challenging.

A caveat about the above: The Rockets have had some good luck in terms of opponents playing with a key player injured. I am not sure if this is atypical of the league given the number of injuries there are in this compresses season. They might run out of good luck, or things might continue as they are.

5. I haven't accounted for home vs. away games yet. However, the Rockets have so far played 17 at home, 16 away. So at least the raw home vs. away #s are roughly equal.


In conclusion, it looks like that the Rockets will have to win some games that they are "not supposed to win" against opponents currently performing better than the Rockets in order to stay competitive in the playoff race.

 

Strength of schedule is relevant only to robots?

 

1. I don't think the original post is that complicated. Several people already posted what the numbers mean: the 2nd half schedule looks pretty tough, probably tougher than the first half schedule, and the Rockets will have to perform better than they have so far-- i.e. beat some of the higher-ranked teams in the league and not slip up against the cupcakes-- in order to get a playoff spot.

2. Of course, I don't mean to say that the Rockets have little hope of making the playoffs. The numbers simply mean that there is a not-insignificant chance for the team to "slip" comparing in comparison with their current record. The Rockets (as well as most other Western teams vying for a playoff spot) cannot afford to hit a skid like they did a couple times last season.

For what it's worth, Hollinger's computer simulation gives the Rockets a 77% chance of making the playoffs. http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds I think it's a little optimistic: The Rockets have had pretty good luck so far-- their guys haven't missed many games, their opponents have had significant injuries when playing vs. Houston, and several of the competitor teams have reason to think they can be better than their current record (Memphis will get Randolph back, Portland is 0-10 (or something like it) in close games, Denver will get Gallo back at some point, Minny has played better with Pekovic getting starters minutes, etc.).

 

Good stuff, I hope it comes true. What worries me is that the "good teams" that the Rockets will have to play against are probably "gooder" than the ones they've already played.