I don't think so, its one-and-done deal like our protected pick for T-will IIRC. Most people forget this, but we also had the right to swap picks with NYC in 2011 in addition to the other goodies we got. We didn't get the chance to avail of it cuz we got a lower pick, but it was a nice protection in case NY's gamble crashed horribly that year.
Knicks haven't beat a team with a winning record, since the 3rd week of the season(January 11th). Their only wins were against the lowly Pistons and Bobcats, since January 11th. That's a pretty brutal performance. There is still a good chance of the Knicks missing the playoffs with 2 wins in a row. They would be 0.400(10-15) and tied with the Cavaliers for the 9th seed. Bucks and Cavaliers have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Knicks. Knicks would still be the 10th seed.
New York Knicks= 8-15 Games left: 1. vs New Jersey 2. vs Utah 3. @ Washington 4. vs LA Lakers 5. @ Minnesota 6. @ Toronto 7. vs Sacramento 8. vs New Orleans 9. vs Dallas 10. vs New Jersey 11. vs Atlanta 12. @ Miami 13. vs Cleveland 14. @ Boston 15. @ Dallas 16. @ San Antonio 17. @ Milwaukee 18. vs Philadelphia 19. @ Chicago 20. vs Portland 21. vs Indiana 22. @ Indiana 23. vs Toronto 24. @ Philadelphia 25. @ Toronto 26. vs Detroit 27. vs Milwaukee 28. vs Orlando 29. @ Atlanta 30. vs Cleveland 31. @ Indiana 32. @ Orlando 33. vs Chicago 34. @ Chicago 35. @ Milwaukee 36. vs Washington 37. vs Miami 38. vs Boston 39. @ New Jersey 40. @ Cleveland 41. @ Atlanta 42. vs LA Clippers 43. @ Charlotte A: The Knicks play poorly and go 19-24 from here on out. *27-39 *Imminent top 10 pick... B: The Knicks play .500 basketball and go 23-22 from here on out. *31-35 *This is more realistic. The Rockets would likely pick from around 12-16. C: The Knicks start cooking and go 27-16 from here on out *35-31 *Baron screws us over. The Rockets likely select from 15-19... The Magic number is 24. The top 5 matchups here, will be HUGE... Chicago 3 Indiana 3 Milwaukee 3 Cleveland 3 Atlanta 3 Philadelphia 2 Dallas 2 Miami 2 Boston 2 Orlando 2 Lakers+Clippers+Wolves+Utah+Portland It is not a cake walk for certain. The Knicks have NO room for slipups. Excuse this post, I really just wanted to put it down in writing so that I could come back to it later.
I don't see how you think that scenario B is more realistic than scenario A. Both are very realistic scenarios especially when you consider that scenario A has them with a better win percentage than they currently have playing against tougher competition. Nothing the Knicks have done this year have shown that they are a team capable of playing .500 ball against some of the leagues best teams. Only 19 of their remaining games are against teams with losing records with 6 of those coming against the Bucks and Cleveland. Also their is a misconception that the Knicks pick is likely to be in the high lotto range. Odds are if they don't get in we are getting a top 10 pick because the West will likely have 4 non playoff teams with better records. So most likely its a top 10 pick or pick 16 or above.
I don't get how B is more realistic than A. BD is not good enough to help beat those top tier teams. They have problems deeper than that.
I understand what you're saying, but as a person who thinks Scenario B is more likely, let me explain. The Knicks have Carmelo Anthony, Amare Stoudemire, Tyson Chandler, and (soon) Baron Davis. Not only that, their defense is much improved, last year's biggest vulnerability. They have to figure it out soon. There's just no way a team with that much firepower gets beat out of the playoffs by the likes of Milwaukee and Cleveland...is there?
We need to know: 1. How likely they make the playoffs (determining whether they pick 15+ or 10-) 2. How likely they win the lottery from 6-10 3. How likely they end up at the bottom 5 6-10 is the sweet spot for us, but we could get screwed if they won the lottery. Can someone calculate the odd of NY winning the lottery (top 3) if they end up in 6-10?
6- 5.4% 7- 5.3% 8- 2.8% 9- 1.7% 10- 1.1% But there seems to be alot of "smoke-and-mirrors" with the nba lotto
The fans have been calling for a do-over trade of Stoudemire (trade him for nothing but cap space or expirings and maybe a pick). IF, big IF, Grunwald was looking for a do-over trade, while that might help them in the long run, that 2012 pick would look even better with Carmelo alone on that island of poor players.
Baron Davis is struggling to simply get into shape, let alone basketball shape. His years of getting his In&Out Animal Style is catching up to him. The idea that he's going to do well against the wealth of top tier PGs out there is far fetched.
Right now, Hollinger has them ranked 19th. Sagarin's computer rankings has them at 22. So, I figure their "expected" seed is between 9th and 10th. I don't know exactly what the probability distribution should look like based on that (I'm sure its complicated), but for simplicity I went with a normal distribution having standard deviation of 2. Here's the probabilities I ended up with: <style type="text/css"> table.tableizer-table {border: 1px solid #CCC; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;} .tableizer-table td {padding: 4px; margin: 3px; border: 1px solid #ccc;} .tableizer-table th {background-color: #B90D0D; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;} </style> <table class="tableizer-table"> <tr style="background-color: #B90D0D; color: #FFF; font-weight: bold;"><th>Seed </th><th>Prob</th><th>Top 3</th><th>Prob Top 3</th><th>Top 5</th><th>Prob Top 5</th></tr> <tr><td>1</td><td>0.0%</td><td>64.3%</td><td>0.0%</td><td>100.0%</td><td>0.0%</td></tr> <tr><td>2</td><td>0.0%</td><td>55.8%</td><td>0.0%</td><td>100.0%</td><td>0.0%</td></tr> <tr><td>3</td><td>0.1%</td><td>46.9%</td><td>0.0%</td><td>96.0%</td><td>0.1%</td></tr> <tr><td>4</td><td>0.5%</td><td>37.8%</td><td>0.2%</td><td>82.8%</td><td>0.4%</td></tr> <tr><td>5</td><td>1.6%</td><td>29.2%</td><td>0.5%</td><td>55.3%</td><td>0.9%</td></tr> <tr><td>6</td><td>4.3%</td><td>21.5%</td><td>0.9%</td><td>21.5%</td><td>0.9%</td></tr> <tr><td>7</td><td>9.1%</td><td>15.0%</td><td>1.4%</td><td>15.0%</td><td>1.4%</td></tr> <tr><td>8</td><td>15.1%</td><td>10.0%</td><td>1.5%</td><td>10.0%</td><td>1.5%</td></tr> <tr><td>9</td><td>19.3%</td><td>6.1%</td><td>1.2%</td><td>6.1%</td><td>1.2%</td></tr> <tr><td>10</td><td>19.3%</td><td>4.0%</td><td>0.8%</td><td>4.0%</td><td>0.8%</td></tr> <tr><td>11</td><td>15.1%</td><td>2.9%</td><td>0.4%</td><td>2.9%</td><td>0.4%</td></tr> <tr><td>12</td><td>9.1%</td><td>2.5%</td><td>0.2%</td><td>2.5%</td><td>0.2%</td></tr> <tr><td>13</td><td>4.3%</td><td>2.2%</td><td>0.1%</td><td>2.2%</td><td>0.1%</td></tr> <tr><td>14</td><td>1.6%</td><td>1.8%</td><td>0.0%</td><td>1.8%</td><td>0.0%</td></tr> <tr><td>Lottery</td><td>99.4%</td><td> </td><td>7.2%</td><td> </td><td>7.9%</td></tr></table> So, this estimates that there's a 7.2% chance they'll get top 3. More importantly, there's about a 7.9% chance they'll get top 5 (and we'll lose the pick). On a related note, according to the above analysis (and, again, the prob. distribution was chosen somewhat arbitrarily ), there's a 61.4% chance that we get a 6-10 pick from the Knicks. Edit: Didn't consider the huge imbalance between the conferences. That knocks down our chances of getting a 6-10 pick by quite a bit.
Considering they are playing at a .350 clip right now (8-15), even a 19-24 finish (.440) would be a considerable improvement, especially taking into account their hardening schedule. I would give the odds for each as: A) 60% B) 30% C) 10%
I'd prefer a lower lottery pick, simply because I have no confidence in the lottery, and the Knicks are one coaching change and one point guard away from being a very, very good team. They played well against the Bulls, but D'Antoni can't draw up plays and doesn't preach defense. They get a new coach, a playmaker and defender at point guard. and an offseason for Amar'e and Chandler to figure out spacing and gel, I think they're a very dangerous team- a team that will net us a low first round pick.
Why should we care how they look next season? Its this season that's important, cuz we have their pick this year, and the odds of them hitting the top 5 this year is quite low.
Because if we don't get their pick this year, we're getting their pick next year- a pick that will be very, very low. On one hand, the last time the Knicks traded their pick and went number 9, which would be solid for us. On the other hand, we've seen more and more meddling from Stern lately- which frightens me a little bit. I'm not expecting the Knicks to somehow sneak into the top 3, but I wouldn't put it past Stern to give the Knicks a lucky bounce.
It boggles my mind that you can be 8-15 in a 66 game season and still be in the running for a playoff berth. The conferences are so incredibly screwed up. New York is going to have to walk a fine line in order to miss the playoffs & not wind up with a top 5 lottery pick.
