Should Orlando trade Dwight or keep him for entire season? (PER Diem: Jan. 30, 2012) By John Hollinger Cue up the drama another notch in Orlando. http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...120130&_slug_=nba-lost-optimism-orlando-magic ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Can someone please post the rest of this article....
Cue up the drama another notch in Orlando. A solid start to the season had folks in Central Florida wondering optimistically about possibilities for a future that included Dwight Howard. The sunglasses aren't nearly as rose-colored now after a brutal five-game stretch that featured three defeats by 20 or more points and a collapse from a 27-point lead. Sunday's 106-85 beatdown by Indiana -- at home, no less -- served to underscore many of the Magic's problems. With no Jameer Nelson, the Magic were using Chris Duhon and Larry Hughes at the point and often had trouble just getting the ball across halfcourt. Duhon had four turnovers and all four produced home run trot layups going the other way; by the second half the Magic were having Hedo Turkoglu or Jason Richardson bring the ball up and basically abandoning any possibility of quick-hitting transition play. (Duhon, incidentally, still has 2½ years left on a four-year, $16 million deal. Take a bow, Otis!) It's been part of a recurring theme in Orlando of late. The Magic scored 67 points against the Hornets, 56 in the first meeting against the Celtics, and 25 in the second half of their epic collapse against Boston days later. We can't just pin it on Duhon replacing Nelson, either -- Nelson played in the other games and had nearly as much trouble navigating the ball across the time line. Which takes us back to the lost optimism of 10 days ago. The Magic began the season 11-4, and the thought was that they could play well enough to persuade Howard to stay. With Ryan Anderson emerging as a deep-shooting threat that provided a perfect frontcourt complement, and the guards not overtly awful, the hope was that the Magic could have a Lakers-in-2008 type campaign. That season, you'll recall, Kobe Bryant was agitating for relocation before his team unexpectedly found itself in first place in the West. Alas, even Orlando's 11-4 start wasn't overwhelmingly impressive. The schedule had been soft, the margins of victory small. And the elephant in the room was this: Virtually all of this team's previous success had been predicated on the dominance of Howard, who impacts games in countless subtle ways that the ball-watching public has been slow to appreciate. Howard has still been good. Very good. He's seventh in PER and leads the NBA in Rebound Rate. But you can't help watching and thinking he's coasting on his prodigious talent, particularly on defense. The Magic were a dominant defense for years despite employing average-to-poor perimeter defenders because Howard was there to protect them. This season he's had their backs less often; in a related story, the Magic are tied for 16th in defensive efficiency. That, in turn, magnifies the offensive problems. Instead of cold-shooting nights being the difference between winning ugly and winning pretty, they've become the difference between winning and losing. The Magic will always be a high-variance offensive team because they depend so heavily on 3-pointers; at 32.7 percent of their field goal attempts, Orlando has the highest rate of 3-point tries in the league. But they haven't been very good overall because of all the turnovers and because they can't shoot 2s; the Magic are 19th in the league in 2-point percentage even with all of Howard's dunks, and they are 30th at 42.7 percent once you subtract him. Sum it up, and even with Howard the Magic aren't all that good. Now at 12-8, the Playoff Odds project Orlando to finish 32-34 and land as the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference, two places behind Milwaukee. (Side note: If the Bucks really get the No. 6 seed without Andrew Bogut, there are nine teams in the East that should consider disbanding.) Yes, we're evaluating the team after a particularly ugly five-game stretch, and I suspect this is about as badly as the Magic can play. But that doesn't raise the water level enough to wash away the inescapable conclusion: These Magic, even with Howard, aren't good enough to contend for anything important. And if that's the case, it follows that Orlando's hopes of persuading Howard to stay by fielding a contending team around him are similarly kaput. This has been suspected for some time, of course, but the optimism spawned by those first 15 games left openings for doubt. The last five games have crushed those hopes like a grape, with Howard's comments questioning his teammates' effort after the New Orleans debacle providing the hammer. All this is going to make for some awkwardness over the next five weeks. There's no more pondering slivers of chances; Howard is gone and everybody knows it. If he's not dealt by the March 15 trade deadline, his free-agent departure for either Dallas or New Jersey is a foregone conclusion. Thus, Orlando's best move is to trade Howard before the deadline rather than lose him for nothing over the summer. Ideally, the Magic would do it now and get on with their lives, but that can't happen for two reasons. First, reality: The All-Star Game is in Orlando this season and there is no freaking way the Magic are having Howard come back in another uniform for that game. Second, technicality: roughly half the players in the league aren't trade-eligible until March 1, and any deal with Howard is likely too big and complicated that at least some of them (such as New Jersey's Kris Humphries) will need to be involved. Instead, we'll be treated to The Dance. Here's the script: Dwight visits town, reporter asks Dwight if he'd consider playing there, Dwight gives vague hypothetical answer that doesn't completely slam door, everybody runs with it. (Yesterday a Chicago paper jumped the gun on this by doing this exact dance with Howard even when his team wasn't playing there.) There's a logic behind that vagueness, actually: It's not clear that Howard knows yet where he wants to go. It's evident he values big markets, sunlight and winning, but we're not sure in what order. Maybe Chicago or Boston (another city he didn't totally eliminate when asked this week) makes the list, maybe they don't. Maybe a Houston or Golden State can worm its way into the picture; maybe it can't. There is one warm-weather city we can probably rule out, however: Orlando.
Thanks so much... From the Orlando Magic blog on Truehoop, a recap of today's game... ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Recap: Philadelphia 76ers 74, Orlando Magic 69 January 30, 2012 by Eddy Rivera The Philadelphia 76ers were able to defeat the Orlando Magic by the score of 74-69. For the Magic, it’s their sixth loss in eight games. Slowly but surely, Orlando is sinking into an abyss of irrelevance with each loss. Andre Iguodala led the way for the Sixers, putting up 14 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, and two steals, further exemplifying that he is one of the most underrated players in the NBA with his ability to be a playmaker on offense while also being an elite defender. Evan Turner had 12 points and four rebounds, while Thaddeus Young had 10 points, three rebounds, and two steals. Dwight Howard had a game to forget for the Magic, finishing with 17 points on 6-of-17 shooting from the field (including 5-of-13 from the free-throw line), 11 rebounds, and two blocks. Ryan Anderson put together a sneaky double-double, finishing with 14 points and a career-high 20 rebounds. A decent chunk of Anderson’s numbers came in garbage time during the fourth quarter when the game was decided. Still, it’s rather telling that Anderson had as many offensive rebounds (11) as Howard had total rebounds in about 10 less minutes of playing time. J.J. Redick struggled mightily filling in for Jason Richardson at the starting shooting guard position, tallying 10 points on 3-of-13 shooting from the field alongside five rebounds. Let’s just get this out of the way first. Philadelphia won this game because they’re better than Orlando. It didn’t matter that Howard had an “advantage” at center or Anderson put up a flurry of points and rebounds after the game was essentially over by the 6:05 mark of the fourth quarter when the Sixers went on a 8-1 run to build a 17-point lead. Philadelphia had advantages at almost every position, in almost every facet of the game, and it’s no surprise that they came away with a victory. Not to discredit the Sixers’ win but it’s not hard when nearly every player for the Magic isn’t trying, when head coach Stan Van Gundy is forced to trot out a second unit consisting of Larry Hughes, Von Wafer, Quentin Richardson, Earl Clark, and Glen Davis, and when players like Redick can’t hit a shot to save their life. All of the elements were there for Philadelphia to beat Orlando with relative ease, and they deserve all the credit in the world for getting the job done. Nevertheless, a D-League team could have probably given the Magic a run for their money in tonight’s game. That’s how bad it was for Orlando and if it wasn’t for them scoring in bunches late in the fourth quarter, they would have been lucky to score more than 56 points in the game (thus setting a new franchise-low for points scored in a game). The Magic have problems that aren’t going to go away until Howard is inevitably traded. First, Howard isn’t trying right now. When you are, at your peak, a top-two player in the NBA (only LeBron James is better), you should be eating Tony Battie and Elton Brand alive when you’re matched up against them. Instead for Howard, he allowed for Battie and Brand to bully him defensively. Not only that but in the fourth quarter, Howard put up a lazy lefty hook that got swatted away emphatically by Brand. The same Brand that has little lift and explosiveness in his legs at this stage of his career. It’s one thing to compete and lose. It’s another thing for a player of Howard’s caliber to waltz around the court, provide a sliver of effort, then pack up his bags and go home. It doesn’t matter if Howard wants to leave. It matters that Howard isn’t respecting himself, Van Gundy and the coaching staff for Orlando, or his teammates by giving an honest effort. You’d be hard-pressed to find people that don’t blame Howard for wanting to leave the Magic because general manager Otis Smith is incompetent at his job. However, you’d be hard-pressed to find people that’ll begin to criticize Howard if he keeps playing like he doesn’t care, because that’s what’s happening right now. Slowly but surely, Howard is sapping away the goodwill he has with the fans because he’s made it abundantly clear that he’s not going to keep his mouth shut, play, and try. Howard is better than this. Second, Orlando is bad right now. Outside of Howard, Anderson, Redick, and Hedo Turkoglu, the rest of the players on the roster aren’t good. Which means that the Magic’s margin of error is small in terms of winning games. And the margin for error gets even smaller when Howard isn’t playing anywhere near his max right now, players like Anderson and Redick are struggling with their shots, and players like Turkoglu don’t care. If Howard doesn’t care, why should someone like Turkoglu? Third, Howard’s voice as a leader means nothing at this point in time. It’s clearly showing on the court because again, if Howard doesn’t care, why should someone like Turkoglu? More and more, players for the Magic don’t care and they’re able to get away with it because there’s no one to hold them accountable. Van Gundy is powerless in this situation. It’d be different if Van Gundy could afford to bench a player for not caring. Yet when Van Gundy looks at the bench, sees players like Larry Hughes looking at him, to say that his options as a head coach are limited is putting it kindly. Van Gundy is in a bind right now. For Orlando, as long as Howard is with the team, the situation is only going to get worse before it gets better. Howard needs to be traded, so all involved parties can move on. If only the Magic weren’t hosting the All-Star Game this season. This nightmare could be over sooner rather than later. Eddy Rivera is the Editor-in-Chief of Magic Basketball. Follow him on Twitter. http://www.magicbasketball.net/2012/01/30/recap-philadelphia-76ers-74-orlando-magic-69/#more-10850
GSW is getting their package together. For them, its a matter of curry, whom the magic will ask for. I'm not saying its a done deal, but I've heard the package is coming. Its really going to be a matter of gsw not giving up both curry and monte.
They'll give up both. The problem with the GSW offer is they can't get under the salary cap enough to bring in DWill as a free agent in 2012. Therefore there is no chance Dwight stays there. The only expiring they have is Kwame who will get chewed up in the Dwight deal. They'll have to take back at least Hedo. They will have no cap space to add DWill. On the other hand, the Rockets can give Orlando Lowry, Martin, Dally, and Scola and take back Hedo, JRich, and Duhon along with Dwight and still have enough assets to trade for DWill or cap space to sign him outright after 2012.
Do you think Orlando will want Martin or Scola? I kind of doubt it. I think they would seek a more rebuilding-oriented package from the Rockets, centering on some combination of the Knicks' draft pick, Donatas Motiejunas, and Marcus Morris. In addition to, potentially, a couple lesser young pieces to sweeten the pot--Patterson, Parsons, Budinger. Dalembert to make the money match, of course. In a D-Will, Howard pairing scenario, I think it would make more sense to send Lowry out as the centerpiece of a D-Will trade, and use young players to get Howard.
Many of the last several seasons, the Magic started strongly but didn't keep it up. Howard is the main reason. It's exaggerated this year because he's giving up on the team and dragging other players down too. I don't know if the Magic can afford to wait until after the ASG. They should let it be known it's time for a deal and get it over with. OremLK, supposedly the Magic's owner doesn't want to rebuild because he wants the Amway center as full as possible.
If that's true I doubt we can get Howard, other teams can offer more attractive veterans than we can. For a change, we actually have some assets with substantial upside to offer (Knicks potential top 10 lottery pick, Motiejunas, Morris) so if a superstar becomes available from a team looking to rebuild I think we have a good shot at making a deal.
The Clippers can offer Blake and Deandre. Will they? The Lakers can offer Bynum and Pau. Will they? Chicago can offer up Noah, Asik, Boozer, and Deng. Will they? Dwight wants to play on a winner, with a point guard that is his age that he can marry his career to. He'll take the Lakers because they are competitive and in a couple years, he can get a point to play with him there when Kobe retires. In the meantime, he can play with Kobe. Golden State can offer up Curry, Ellis, Udoh, Lee, Klay Thompson, and Kwame but they have no cap space to attract DWill unless somehow they get Orlando to take on a huge chunk of extra salary for just Dwight and Hedo. I doubt Orlando does that. Houston has assets. We have Lowry, Martin, Dally, and Scola for starters. We can take back Hedo and JRich or Hedo, Duhon, QRich. We can take back more bad contracts. We can also throw in a developing lottery pick (Morris) and a couple second rounders. Orlando gets players on good value contracts that will compete night in and night out. They get salary cap relief. And they get some young talent. And we've still got salary cap room to sign DWill in the offseason. Better yet, we've still got assets to trade for DWIll, Patterson, Dragic, Chase, an expiring, and a couple first rounders, the lottery protection removed from our 2012 pick plus NY's lottery pick. Dwight is going to either...the Clippers, the Lakers, or the Rockets.
I still think they should trade Dwight immediately, then begin tanking for the rest of the season. They should be used to this by now. Tank, get superstar, lose superstar, repeat.
To me, it seems that the GSW question is whether Dwight will stay there, particularly if they give up significant talent to get him and the post-trade Warriors end up no more talented than the Orlando Magic. Otherwise, Dwight Howard is more valuable than pretty much any combination of players from that roster and it is a no-brainer to make a deal.
First of all, if you leave Monta out of the deal so Dwight has somebody to play with, there is no cap room to sign Deron. Secondly, if you put Monta in the deal, you have to convince Orlando to add a bunch of salary on their end of the deal to have a chance of acquiring a max free agent in the offseason. Golden State is contract locked. And they blew their amnesty on lil' ole Charlie Bell. Real smart there.
