Rudy Gay's about to show the world he's on Durant's level

He is an effective player, but his contract production sucks. Part of the reason why the Grizzlies are losing so much money.

 

Intriguing...you posted a gay icon in a thread about Rudy Gay.

 

can i be the one to show them?

let's all peruse on over to 82games clutch stats for the last 4 years (and hope i format all this correctly).

http://www.82games.com/CSORT11.HTM
http://www.82games.com/0809/CSORT11.HTM
http://www.82games.com/0910/CSORT11.HTM
http://www.82games.com/1011/CSORT11.HTM

i'll save you the trouble of looking up where gay ranked (in terms of points per 48 minutes) and what his other stats were:

Code:

Year	Rank	Team	*Player	Gm	Min	+/-	+/-	Fga	Fg%	3pA	3p%	Fta	Ft%	Pts	Ast'd	Reb	Ast	T/o	Blk	Stl	Poss	TS%
07-08	30	*MEM	*Gay	36	138	-23	-8	25	0.528	9.4	0.407	6.3	0.55	33.7	0.31	5.9	1.7	6.6	1	0.7	27.772	0.607
08-09	86	*MEM	*Gay	34	142	-44	-15	21.3	0.317	4.4	0.154	9.1	0.74	21	0.35	5.1	1	1.7	0.3	1.4	25.304	0.415
09-10	95	*MEM	*Gay	44	189	-10	-3	19.5	0.377	3.3	0.231	4.6	0.5	17.8	0.31	7.9	1	2	1	1.5	21.524	0.413
10-11	76	*MEM	*Gay	30	140	-22	-8	18.1	0.472	3.4	0.3	6.8	0.8	23.6	0.28	5.8	2.4	3.1	1.4	0.3	21.092	0.559

much like his career, gay was good quicker than expected. ranking 30th with a very good TS% of 60.7 (about league average). then it all kind of fell apart. ranks of 86, 95, and 76. TS% of 41.5, 41.3, and 55.9. the average over the 4 years has him at about a rank of 72 and a TS% of 50.2. his efficiency actually got worse. made even worse by the fact that for the top 100 or so players on this list, the average TS% was 57.6%, higher than during normal game time (due to lots of free throws, there are those pesky things again). throw in the fact his rebounding got worse (6.5 per 48 is like 15% off his usual rate) and that he gets hardly any assists and it's hard to see how he is this great late game player. all the way down in 72nd at his best stat (scoring), less efficient, less rebounding, less passing, it just doesn't seem that great.

also, not a single positive +/- in 4 years. an average of about -7.8 per 48 minutes. versus an average for everyone in the top 100 of about +2 per 48 minutes. if you limit it to the top 20 players (you know, the elite), it's +8.4 per 48 minutes. he's like an anti-top 20 player.

but i'm sure there's a reason rudy gay's stats in the clutch aren't good and his team has done poorly in the clutch for 4 straight years.

 

I guess this might be informative if you agree with 82games.com's definition of 'clutch'.

 

so you're gonna let your dislike of lebron go so far that, because stats like lebron, you will reject all stats to the point that you will disagree with/ignore the notion that rudy gay has been less than great in clutch situations over a 4 year period of tracking his performance in those situations? [mark jackson]you're better than that[/mark jackson].

and as i think i've said in other threads about this "definition," if someone has another definition and has tracked the data, i'd be perfectly happy to look at it. as of now, the last 5 minutes of close games seems to be suiting the basketball community well and that's what we've got.

 

Nothing to do with Lebron at all. I do think it's funny that people think they can so easily measure 'clutchness'. Maybe you can tell me what's clutch about making a shot when you're up by 5 points with 4:30 left in a regular season game? I mean, the fact that we're looking at regular season games to determine 'clutchness' is an issue in and of itself, right?

 

I guess I just don't value clutch shots as much as others. I don't know of a single game this season where I said to myself, man I wish we had a clutch guy right here. I'd prefer all around guys who dont necesarily score a ton of points, but score effeciently when given the opportunity. In the meantime they would defend/hustle/rebound.

Personally I would take Lebron, Melo, Iggy, Wallace, Granger, Galinari, Batum and Deng over Gay.

If it were five years back Butler, Jefferson and Prince as well.

Fits in the good to above average player in my book.

 

I think it's funny then that the people who bang the drum hardest about clutchnessitude are the least able/most likely to reject what it actually means.

It's actually quite a simple reason, really, if you're going to go around pretending like shots in the 4th period count for more than/are harder to get than shots in 1st 3, (my understanding is that they count the same...) there should be a way to tell who is clutch rather than just having to listen to nincompoops just arbitrarily pronounce somebody as "clutch" - I mean obviously it must be something they do repeatedly, right?

The reason for the stat cut-off, btw, is quite simple, not sure why as a clutchficionado, presumably, it has to be explained to you. The reason why certain times in the game are picked and not others is that within certain time periods in certain game conditions (game w/in 2 scores) the game can reasonably be said to be still "on the line" in that there is not a huge amount of difference in the percentage chance of a team to win vs. to lose (this percentages change, obviously, as you get further down in the clock, perhaps you can develop a perfected clutch rating to show this?)

The challenge for you really isn't that hard though, if you want to tell us a player is clutch - tell me exactly what it means? I'm sure we can arrive at a reasonable definition. I'm also relatively certain that if we slide the line back to 2 minutes from 4 minutes it's not going to make a hell of a lot of difference in who is "clutch" when you filter out the statistical noise.

It's barely surprising to me that guys like LeBron, Kobe, etc score lots of points in the clutch, becuase, guess what, they happen to be the same guys who score lots of points in the non-clutch too...Crazy how it works outt hat way....

 

I personally don't agree with the term "clutch". I do think there are chokers, players who get so rattled at the end of games that they fumble the ball and do all sorts of mistakes. So IMHO players can only be chokers or non-chokers, there is no such thing as clutch. Because if there is, he'd hit "clutch" shots with consistency, and so far the players with the highest clutch stats are only hitting it at a low percentage.

Rudy Gay has one or two moves which he cant hit with accuracy no matter what the defense is. That makes him as "clutch" as any person can be, and I would be comfortable drawing up the last play for him at the end of the game.

 

Of course, he specializes in the worst shot in the game, risk/reward wise, so he's able to get it. If he were really as automatic at it that you guys imply though there would probably be some evidence other than a few anectdotes here and there.

 

I know. I was watching the Bucks/Rockets game where the Rockets were down 8 with a minute to go and I thought to myself, man I wish we had a clutch player like Gay so Kevin McHale could draw him up a 9 point shot for the win...........

 

Why didn't the Grizzlies take the Cavs' offer for the #4 pick for Gay? Not only would Memphis have received a top 4 pick, but they would have been able to just dump the contract of such an overpaid and inefficient scrub without taking on any salary in the deal. Maybe you know something that both of those organizations don't know.

How many more game-winning shots does he have to hit? He just hit a shot and made other plays down the stretch a few nights ago against Golden State to win that game.

Are you sure you weren't thinking about how if Luc Richard Mbah a Moute or Carlos Delfino only shot the ball a few times more they would have put up 20 points tonight?

 

Durant was so efficient and smooth tonight, scoring 25 points on 13 shots. That's like 2 points per shot! And to top it off, he had 2 steals and 3 blocks.

I seriously thought I was watching Rudy Gay out there. The defensive presence and efficiency by Durant was so Gay tonight.

 

Yeah, considering that the NBA nearly canceled its entire season, losing bilions, because team owners admitted that they were collectively too stupid too resist the temptation for vastly overpaying players and locking them into bad contracts - It's not really that much of a stretch/doesn't take a genius to realize that there are still overvalued players out there.

Uh, I don't know what the number is, since the Clutch-o-philes are the ones defining it, I think it's up to you guys but I'm pretty sure it's more than, you know....ONE.

 

i suppose you've just gotten so anti-lebron and stats are in so many lebron threads (or maybe i'm just reading them more) that it seems you've become anti-"all stats."

well if we're going to talk about people "stepping up when it matters" and "being clutch," then there should probably be evidence of them doing that. if you don't have some sort of definition then you just end up with people deciding that any time a guy they like hits a shot, it's clutch, and when he misses they excuse it somehow (and vice versa if they don't like the guy).

sure, you can quibble with any measure. does it seem stupid that a guy hitting a game-tying 3 with 5:01 left isn't clutch and a guy making a 2 to put his team up 7 with 4:59 left is clutch? sure. just like it seems silly that someone who is 20 years, 364 days old isn't responsible enough to drink and then when the clock strikes midnight they have now been endowed with all the responsibility necessary to drink. but as long as people think there should be a line (and if you're arguing clutch, you certainly are implying there is a line), then the line has to be drawn somewhere. it won't always be perfect.

but we assume that the shots with 5:01 and 4:59 and ones that aren't particularly meaningful but get counted and the ones that are meaningful but don't get counted will even out and we'll be left with a measure of what people are doing late in close games, which virtually anyone arguing "clutch" would agree falls in the definition. and by that reasoning, rudy gay has certainly not backed up his supporters claims that while he may not be great in the vast majority of the game, his skillset becomes very valuable in the final portion of the game. being 72nd in the league over a 4 year period simply doesn't back up the claim.

and if i was going to tweak the clutch definition, i might change the 5 minute mark to 3 points and 4 minute mark to 4 points because the farther from the end of the game, the closer the game should be to matter, and then also maybe change under 2 minutes to 4 points and under 1 minute to 3 points since the closer you get to the end the less important shots down 5 become. but that's pretty convoluted and i don't have those numbers so i'll go with the "mostly gets the job done" measure everyone uses.

although:

i basically agree with roslalian. while i do think big moments create pressure and that pressure does affect players, i find it much more likely that pressure will cause people to mess up than to imbue them with some increased abilities to play basketball. if players could just raise their game on command, they would do it all game long. or at least they should just do it all game long and make their teams much better.

well, it is where players play the vast majority of their games and plenty of "clutch" reputations have been built on making many regular season shots/plays. while playoff clutch moments become legendary, there are only so many to go around. and it would make for a fairly boring bbs if we all just stopped posting for 10 months a year and waited to talk about the playoffs.

 

I can't believe BOTH of these teams with all their resources would overvalue Gay, especially considering he's SUCH an inefficient and overpaid scrub. Things would be so much better if only you and the other basketball gurus here on Clutchfans were working for the Griz and Cavs. Maybe you should submit an application.

Counting the one he hit against the Warriors the other night, he's hit 7 in his career so far. As far as I know, he's never failed his team with the game on the line at the end. Try watching some basketball.

<iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/ttHBHC7BqTk" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

So you can't believe one team which the owner has been trying to sell for years due to his financial ineptitude and another which is a rudderless collection of no-hopers would be in for Gay? Think about it some more then. It will come to you.

So you're claiming he's 7 for 7 in these situations (which translates to about 1.7 times a year so far) - are you claiming that this is a lot?

what if I were to show you a data set that cast these assumptions into doubt - what would you do? Huff and puff and curse complicated concepts like "division"?

 

Sam, I'm assuming you were a rockets fan during the dream era. If so, do you remember some of the shots cassell used to take? The shots he took early in his rookie season were different than the ones he took later or in his 2nd year. Know why? Shot recognition. If you look at the shots rudy takes now with better teammates are different than the ones he took as a rookie.

You question whether or not I think they would've been a better team with a rookie rudy gay vs shane. I think they would've been because the rockets left a lot of points on the floor. They didn't have another guy who couldn't get a shot on his own. That's why they lost to the jazz. That's why they had 4 players score in a playoff game. Allow me to continue.

After game 1, the jazz started to make adjustments. What they found out is they don't have to double yao ming. What they also decided to do is zone tracy. The dominoe effect of this was a offense that got worse as the series wore on. The jazz found out the rockets had 0 in term of players who could get a shot, foul,or basket without the aide of tracy or yao ming. So what happens is the defensive players can leave their area later and get to the "shooters" without penalty. They could close out on shane,rafer,and luther in a wreckless manor because they couldn't get to the rim or get in position to make a shot. I think if you put even a rookie rudy gay in that situation he would capitalize on such a scenerio. See, that's not taking shots away from yao ming and tracy mcgrady, that's taking shots from rafer alston and juwon howard. That's the 3rd scorer they needed even when they were in their so called prime.

The next season, tracy is injured early, yao is playing well, but the team struggled. Know why? Go and look at how many late games they lost with tracy being out. Even with yao having his best statiscal season, the team struggled to win game with tracy out. If the rockets had a now 2nd yr rudy gay, he could've helped with some of the scoring especially late in games. Could he take tracy's place as a playmaker? No, but he could've helped with the scoring load. Tracy comes back and yao ming is done for the season. They played well in the regular season, but now they're facing utah jazz again. What happens? No yao and pretty much no player other than tracy who can get a quality shot. The 3 rookies have their moments, but in the end, they couldn't score enough points. Imagine what rudy gay's value to the team or via trade would've been for rockets. If carl landry and tracy expiring got martin, what could a 22 yr old rudy gay get the team? My guess is almost anything. At 22 and productive, teams were still seeing him trending upward. Teams still see him trending upwards. I think he's getting better, but he's not going to all of a sudden become a 30ppg 10rebs sf. His ft shooting is down, but that's about it right now. Again, if they put him on the market right now which I doubt, you could get alo even with his contract.

 

The problem with this analysis - which is not terrible analysis - but it's symptomatic of your inabilty to see the big picture - is that you take one trait/area/situation and just arbitrarily pronounce it to outweigh every single negative. There's a concept of opportunity cost that you don't appreciate.

Gay was a very unproductive player that year. Replacing him with Battier means that you

1) lose your best perimeter defender (aside: your next best perimeter defender after Battier that year? Rafer? Chuck Hayes? Kirk Snyder? What a horrible lineup) and replaced him with a terrible, probably your very worst perimeter defender, and

2) instead of 10 points out of Battier's limited touches, you're getting 5 points out of Gay's limited touches, or 10 points by letting him bomb away, but then you're basically taking the ball away from the big dogs to do it (unlikley to happen under Van Gundy or while Yao & Tracy are in the game)

There's no way to spin that, over the course of an 82 game season, other than as a big net negative. He makes you worse on defense, and worse on offense over the course of the year, it's not really arguable. And it probably results in more losses. And you know what? the embarrassment of losing to the Jazz at home in the first round goes away...because you don't have the 4th best record, you're the 7th seed, you lose homecourt advantage and are playing the Suns, who were a juggernaut that year and whipped the Rockets 3-1 in the regular season. Oops.