Interesting article Major. I said before Iowa that Romney was most likely, followed by [a candidate yet to be named]. No way in the world Newt will get the nomination. The reason he's standing now is because his ascension came at the right time. If it isn't Romney, someone will be drafted. Santorum has a better chance of winding up on top than Newt.
Santorum with Iowa and Newt taking South Carolina. How embarrassed must the party as a whole feel right now.
How? All Newt does in debates is whine about the media and call Obama the debil. Obama will wipe the floor with Newt
I think Santorum feels the same way - it looks like he's staying in for that exact reason, hoping that Newt implodes again and makes him the remaining conservative alternative. The draft strategy only works with an open convention, from what I'm hearing. Apparently, it's too late for a new candidate to actually get on the ballot on most states, so they couldn't win by just joining the race today and trying to earn delegates. But the problem there is that all the delegates will be handpicked by Romney, Newt, Paul, or Santorum. So if you draft someone new, you're basically telling all those people and their grassroots supporters that we'd prefer some unvetted guy over your candidate who spent the last year raising money, fighting for this, etc. Basically, all your work and time and even our party's votes don't matter to us. I don't see how that ends well for the GOP. It will be fun to see the establishment vs the tea party and how that plays out!
Because of the way momentum works in presidential primaries, seem like the odds of delegates being split between the 3-4 candidates so nobody wins enough is unlikely. So my last-comer theory goes out the window.
I still don't think the sober intelligence behind the .1% want the GOP to win the Presidency. If they did there would have been a concerted effort to build an electable candidate starting in 2008. I think they have rightfully calculated that owning the House is the best strategy to preserve the current tax rates and influence the future business environment. It's much easier to win a local election with an Us vs. Them campaign with the easy target of the Federal Goverment as the foil. All the radical rhetoric of this futile campaign just serves to normalize it so it can be rolled out familiar and reasonable in the Districts. Santorum and Newt make Bush look statesman-like. Romney is just a plastic-fantastic robo-politician.
They won't Mc. PAC money can be crushing at the Congressional level. That's where the the greatest rate of return on investment is, so that's where smart money invests. The other thing about his prolonged Crazy Train of a primary is how much time the radical right has to repeat the same talking points. Repeat them until the seem 'everyday' normal. And they have the front page to do it.
The more I think about it, the more I think you're right. Good insight. Just look at how well the Party of No congress has impeded the president.
Here's the Comedy interpretation to my Bond Villain one: Memo to Republican Establishment: James Carville I am assuming you are out there and I assume there are more than three of you. At any rate, I thought I'd take a moment to catch up with you and make some observations on how things are going for your party. Let me break it to you gently -- you've got a first-class disaster on your hands. I know you boys thought this thing would work out and you would be able to whip the Republicans in line to fall in behind Mitt (I assume you are all males but if there is a female in the establishment, I apologize.) Not going too good, is it fellows? It's been a terrible time to be a Republican. There have been many moments during this process that have caused me great joy. Certainly the events of Thursday, ending with the CNN debate, and even the Fox debate Monday night, have helped ease the pain of my beloved Tigers' and Saints' recent defeats. I mean, most people thought it was kind of a watermark when your Tea Party gang booed the golden rule. You know, I've spent some time in Philly and they have always thought they were pretty radical because they actually booed Santa Claus and Willie Mays. Philly, I've got news for you -- you ain't got nothing on South Carolina Republicans. They just aren't buying any of that do-unto-others garbage. I actually thought my favorite moment of this delightful process was when one of your eight front-runners, Herm Cain, (as Sarah Palin calls him) actually ran an ad with his campaign manager endorsing him. (Rove, why didn't you think of that in 2000? Imagine the headline: "Rove endorses Bush.") The climax of that delicious ad is when he actually takes a drag on a cigarette. But my favorite thing about Herm's campaign manager is that he is the only person in the history of the world that was actually barred from political consulting. Let me tell you, I've been in this business for quite a while and I've never known of anyone other than Mark Block to be suspended from practicing this profession. At any rate, let's talk a minute about Mitt. He was your guy -- he was methodical, meticulous, married once. He has completely blown himself up over an issue that everyone knew was coming. Have you had a chance to look at John McCain's research operation on Mitt? Wow. And let me assure you, that thing has been supplemented, expanded, and annotated. God only knows about the Obama people -- they've got a billion dollars! And how about my friends over at American Bridge (the Democrat-leaning political action committee)? Clearly Mitt is merely in the beginning of this tax-return, financial-disclosure, Cayman Island (and God only knows what else) fiasco. Your new front-runner is one of your old front runners, Newt Gingrich. I would like to take a moment to revel: I cannot personally tell you how pleased I am to see old Newt rise to the top after listening to all of your nauseating, sickening lectures on the evils of government and the importance of family values. Now, you guys have to deal with a $1.6 million Freddie Mac consultant (who says he wasn't a lobbyist) who has been married three times. Hope you, at least, enjoy the Super Bowl. It could be your last hurrah for a while. PS -- As my former boss once said, I feel your pain. That's why I didn't mention Rick Perry. Follow Join the conversation on The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of James Carville. © 2012 Cable News Network. Turner Broadcasting System, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Dems will field 75 strong candidates in the fall against repub incumbents. They only have to flip 25 seats for the majority. I'm optimistic
If Dems retake Congress and retain the White House, there's no more excuses. Obama's in his 2nd term, and should know how to get things done in Washington by his 2nd term, plus now he'll have party control. 2012-2014 (or 2016) is going to be the time to get things done.
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