In the post-debate CNN analysis, Romney was mentioned 87 times, Gangrich 84, Rancorum 76, and Ron 1 time.
If Newt does win SC by double digits, I think he wins FL. Florida is where Cain shocked the race and won a straw poll after one good debate - that state has no real love for Romney at all. I think after that is where it gets more difficult for him - the February primary schedule isn't as favorable to him and has fewer debates, and then he needs to quickly find a whole lot of money for Super Tuesday. His best bet, assuming he wins FL, is that Romney is beaten down enough that Ron Paul can win some of the caucus states thanks to superior organization and crazy supporters. That can keep Romney from gaining any sort of momentum, but I have no idea how likely that is.
Tough question. I was hoping Huntsman would surge, but that won't happen now. Jindal and Rubio are too young but they are the future of the GOP. I think Christie could be the best choice to be the James K. Polk of 2012 if Romney and Gingrich come to a Martin Van Buren -Lewis Cass deadlock.
Sigh. Yes, Lincoln was a Republican. However, the words Republican and Democrat do not mean the same thing now as they meant then. If you want to know more, start here:
I studied James K. Polk in grad school. Christie is no James K. Polk. For instance, I can't look at Christie and think he would agree with this quote by Polk: No president who performs his duties faithfully and conscientiously can have any leisure.
Free speech and free market, Broseph; you don't like it, make your own highly-rated, publicly trusted news network. Otherwise the naming puns are a good start. "Constitution, more like Consti-jew-tion, amirite?" "Supreme Court, more like Supreme Corporate Whort, heh? Huh?"
Or his quote about California: "just cuz the sand there is brown, doesn't mean the people should be."
My strong minor was history. Although I was using the deadlock analogy only. Polk, Van Buren and to a lesser extent Cass were all Jacksonian Democrats. Polk was acceptable to both sides of their party, as Christie is to both wings of the GOP. However, I fear there is no Gideon Pillow and Robert Walker to forge a compromise. (Walker was a Mississippi senator (Cass) and Pillow (Van Buren) was the newspaper editor.)
What would Newt have to do or say to show the people of South Carolina that he is absolute antithesis of the person you want sitting in the Oval Office, all politics aside, just who he is as a human being.
Newt would either have to say that he's muslim, wiccan, a satanist, atheist, hindu, or buddhist or gay to lose South Carolina. Unless any of those happens- he wins.
Get caught with a live boy or a dead girl. (And it is not the people of SC, it's Republican primary voters. Sure, there's likely to be little difference in the ultimate outcome, but it is a distinction worth noting.)
What's amazing about this is Rick Santorum at 18%. I really thought he needed to collapse for Newt to win - I suspected he'd be closer to 10%. The fact that him + Newt are combining for close to 60% vs. Romney's 26% has got to be discouraging for Romney. At the end of the day, people - especially the rabid tea party - wants to love their candidate. They will overlook weaknesses in exchange for strengths. Romney has no strengths. He doesn't have the glaring weaknesses of the other candidates, but that doesn't seem to translate to votes. Santorum looks like he will stay in now, presumably hoping for a Gingrinch win in FL to weaken Romney further, and then a Newt implosion down the line, leaving him as the alternative. That makes Newt's job harder, but I think Santorum's vote will keep declining for now. I'd give Newt a better than 50% chance to win FL, but he's going to have issues in February. Anger at the media can only carry him so far, but it's been a brilliant play so far. Interestingly, Romney got a smaller part of the vote than McCain (not surprising) but also less than 2nd place Huckabee last time around, also in a 4 man race.
