Yeah, we look like an undeveloped nation when we can't count our votes properly. This new appearance of santorum has truly stained the carpet of our nation's politics. (Yes, I will keep trying this schtick until he leaves the race.)
Not that Perry has much impact, but he's dropping out today and endorsing Newt. That's at least a few more points to add to Newt's total. 3 new SC polls out today, with two showing Romney still leading (7 and 10 pts) and one with Newt having a 3 point lead.
I agree the party will try to bring him down, as they did back in December fairly successfully. But at the end of the day, there is a huge anti-Romney contingent, and they are not willingly going to vote for Romney. The only way they do it is if everyone else has dropped out. I agree with you that Romney is still the favorite. But if Newt can win SC, he's going to drag this thing out a long way at the very least, especially if Santorum drops out next week. Serious money will start flowing in for him, and he probably sweeps the south while Romney sweeps the northeast. I have no idea what happens in the west and midwest, though. I would argue that Romney is not remotely vetted either at this point - his offshore bank accounts, tax issues, and Bain days are not illegal or, in the GOP world, even unethical. But they make for ugly things to defend, especially in a general election campaign. All of that has really only surfaced in the last few weeks. The best thing for Romney, like Obama, would be to have to earn his nomination over many states in the primaries. It will sharpen him as a candidate.
we're talking about rural iowa here. i saw them on the news hand counting tiny pieces of paper and create canidate stacks. really high tech.
Breaking News: Newt Gingrich's campaign is about to implode: Newt's ex to reveal fatal blow to Newt's campagne. More info and sources to come.
Why would you assume Perry's votes will go to Newt? You don't think some will break for Paul or Santorum?
Well, in part, he's endorsing Newt. But I think Paul's contingent is unique - people who want to attack Turkey for being islamofascists probably don't like Ron Paul's golden rule of leaving other countries alone, etc. And Santorum seems to be fading a bit - Newt is the one surging, and I think Perry's appeal is probably more on fiscal matters than social matters, which plays to Newt's strength (though he's the most balanced between Santorum (social) and Newt (fiscal)). Newt seems to slowly be building his case that it's him or Romney. Santorum seems to be falling down to an afterthought at this point, which is not too surpirising given that his "surge" was far weaker than anyone else's, and he never had a lot of appeal outside of Iowa.
Again, I think you're right that he's not going to win, but incredibly wrong in assuming there's a group of adults in the room/men behind the curtain making sure that such an outrageous outcome wouldn't suffice. Where was the violent internal reaction when an Epsilon semi-moron from Wasilla was selected as their standard bearer in 2008 and christened the future savior?
Difference is that Newt has a long track record some of it with the people in the party. Palin was a relative newcomer. She clearly wasn't vetted enough.
Palin wasn't known in 2008. That election and her subsequent dingbat behavior have added her to the radioactive category.
Indeed if Newt wins SC, the race will last a while and become uglier for Romney. In his particular case, I'm not sure this is a good thing for him but I understand your point because Obama benefited in 2008.
Newt wanted an "open" marriage. Romney has $MMs in the Cayman Islands. Santorum reminds me of Fred Phelps. These are excellent candidates...
