Our goal is not simply to lose, but to lose WITH A PLAN. We lose now, while planning to win later. The Clippers don't plan for anything except $. If they hadn't lucked into Blake Griffin they'd still be doing the same thing.
I'm more optimist this year than I was last year, because I think it is now apparent that we have one star - Lowry. At a very reasonable contract, mind you. I think Morey is going all in to try to get Dwight, either at the trade deadline, or during free agency. At the trade deadline, we could offer a package of Martin, Scola, Dally, Parsons and the NY pick in exchange for Dwight and Hedo. I think this is a better package than Dwight for Bynum straight up, and that the Lakers can't beat this package unless they throw in Gasol. Which they swear they won't. At a minimum, we drive up the price so that the Lakers do have to part with both of them to get Dwight, preventing another Lakers' dynasty. If Orlando holds on to him past the deadline, then at free agency time, our draw would be that Dwight could come to a team with a star PG, plus Lee and other good young players, and not pay state income tax. Another sales point to him is that we will have cap flexibility in the summer of 2013 to lure a third star to play with Dwight/Lowry. Of course, we need to make the playoffs and not tank if we want any chance of luring Dwight in free agency. Lowry would need to have an elite playoff performance to reinforce that he is just as good as Deron. I think we have a higher chance of getting him via trade at the deadline than free agency next summer, but still, I think a strategy to pursue Dwight is worth the gamble. If we strike out, then maybe Les allows Morey to go into full tank mode, dump Martin and Scola, and shoot for a top draft pick plus free agent cap space in the summer of 2013. Right when Drummond is coming out (if he bypasses this draft as he is saying he will), and when some good free agents hit the market. Stay the course.
If (that's IF) the Rockets want to dump a guy like Kevin Martin or Luis Scola and go into full-on rebuild mode, the Thunder (then the Sonics) give a nice example of what I'm proposing. Rather than dumping Ray Allen mid-season in the middle of their own tank-job, the Sonics waited until AFTER the season, immediately prior to the 2007 NBA Draft, to trade Allen to the Celtics in exchange for a package centered around the #5 pick of the draft. If you want to trade Martin or Scola for a draft pick, I think THIS is the approach one should take in order to maximize the return on them. Will you get the #5 pick? Probably not, since Allen was clearly better than either of our guys are; but I think Martin could realistically get you a pick between #7 and #10. One reason why Allen was able to net the #5 pick was that, just one season prior (or was it two?), he helped lead the Sonics to the playoffs when most experts didn't think they could do it. I am hoping that a playoff berth could increase the value of Martin and Scola. Either the Rockets keep them (as better, proven winning players) or trade them (and get a higher return to help the rebuild OR package them for a star, as they tried to do in the Pau Gasol deal).
If only Dwight could see how good Lowry was and how good this team could be with him in the middle. I'm beginning to wonder if DMO is indeed the next Dirk. He seems like he's got the cockiness and the work ethic. Lord knows, he's got the skills.
You'd have to find a lottery team in the 7-10 range that is looking to win big next year. The Celtics were unique in that they had a star player in Pierce, and they were adding a stud like Garnet to the team in exchange for Al Jefferson. They were only a player away from contending. That's a fairly unique situation. Does any team out there look like that?
Were the Bobcats ready for title contention when they traded the #8 pick for Jason Richardson? There are several teams picking in the mid- to late lottery who believe they've had enough top draft picks in recent years and could use a high quality veteran instead. They view themselves as one such player away from the playoffs. The Celtics deal WAS a unique situation, but that was an aberration among the past examples of what I am illustrating here. (In fact, many experts didn't like the Allen trade for the Celtics. It wasn't until KG agreed to be traded to Boston did everything come together. Had KG said "No, I'm staying in Minnesota" or "No, I won't sign an extension in Boston", then it could have been very different for Boston with Pierce, Allen and Jefferson.)
Agreed. Just playing devil's advocate. I am thoroughly enjoying the give and take between you, Bima, Joe Barely Cares and others. I tend to land somewhere in the middle of all of these separate takes. Good thread and very informative. Thanks.
I pretty much agree with you, though waiting until the off-season to trade Martin and Scola delays us one more year. It's so early in the season that I think it's worth starting the draft strategy now. The thought of waiting yet another year is excruciating. The most important variable seems to be whether we expect Martin/Scola to have greater trade value later, notably at the trade deadline or at next year's draft. The lockout actually really hurt us in this regard, as I don't think we would have had the debacle of the Gasol failure if there had been more time before the season. At the very least, we would have had a no-trade without all the publicity, which hurt Scola's and Martin's trade values. I expect that Morey will be able to finally persuade Les to either tank or make a playoff push around the trade deadline, based on our record. If we are sub-500, then it should be obvious even to Les that we should trade them to contenders for whatever we can get. I think the trade deadline makes more sense, too, as this is when there is the most demand for veterans.This is in contrast to the draft, which is most defined by the fact that there are a greater variety of players to be traded and with higher uncertainties about their values.
Likewise, Rashmon. I tend to stay away from the typical mindless debates among people who have little idea what they're talking about (or at least are speaking with a lack of information or context). But I enjoy the occasional debate with guys like jopatmc, meh, leebigez, etc., where there are informed and reasoned opinions on both sides.
The bad thing about it is unless Sterling changes his spots, he's got a very small chance of retaining CP3 and Griffin long term once they can get out of there. Nobody is talking about it yet. Everybody's finally hyped about the Clippers making the playoffs and how good they could be. But without a solid owner and front office, it is most likely short-lived. Sterling's rep totally sux. He's got a lot of PR work to do to convince CP3 and Griffin that's he's gonna get and keep a competitive roster around them.
The Garnett to the Celtics trade is really instructive for us. It analogizes pretty well to us wanting Dwight Howard, who like Garnett is disenchanted with his current team. Moreover, Garnett really did not want to go to Boston at first, but had a change of heart at the end, just like Howard does not seem anxious to come to Houston. The one problem is that we don't have a player equivalent to Al Jefferson (a young big with a high ceiling) that we can trade to Orlando. If PatPat were to develop extremely well the rest of the year, maybe he could be the tradechip like Jefferson was. But we're a still year of development from being able to do that. So I think we're somewhat like the Celtics pre-Garnett, but still need another year into the rebuild process.
You hit the nail on the head here. Garnett absolutely DID NOT want to go to Boston. He wanted the Lakers or Knicks I believe. But Boston had the pieces to make the trade and they did have Paul Pierce. No, we don't have an Al Jefferson, but we do have Pat Patterson. And we do have a lottery pick. We've got the best pieces for Orlando if Orlando wants to clear out their salary cap mess and start over, which they may be inclined to do once the season is over. And Dwight is not going to be inclined to walk away from the Bird raises, etc. He really wants that supermax deal. It is a lot of money. So, there may be a fit here, especially if we could show him how we are going to get Deron to play with him.
New Jersey. If Dwight isn't traded by the deadline and hits free agency, they could trade us their lottery pick, a release of our pick obligation to them for the TWill trade, plus Petro and Morrow (to clear cap space) for KMart. Why would they do it? A lineup of DWill, KMart, Lopez and Dwight would be monster.
Seriously? I would think they like Marshon Brooks more outright. And 2 first round picks including a lottery pick for Martin?????? They'd have to be smoking dope man. That's nuts.
You and I agree on pretty much the whole plan. An important part of this is that we get a good lottery pick. We can either use the pick for ourselves or make a play to use it as a trading chip for Howard (unlikely but no reason not to try). I don't see any possibility of getting Howard if we are basing the trade on PatPat and a late lottery pick. I think the trade only becomes non-laughable if we can offer them at least the PatPat, the #6 pick or better, and some other sweeteners.
