He has before. See 2002 and 2006. Here you can start with this thread. Check the articles in the site archive. This ain't the first time we have had this discussion here.
That's just it. I think trades WILL be made. Maybe not a franchise-altering trade. But at least something to shake up things a bit and maybe give the team an edge to make the playoffs. Or maybe the opposite, trading away rotation guys for draft picks and hoping that non-rotation guys step up in the playoff push. Assuming that no moves were made but that the young guys continued to develop, I could see the Rockets (best case scenario) as a #6 seed. More likely is that they sneak in as a #7 or #8 seed. But with the East being so shallow, I think that still lands the Rockets a pick in the 17-20 range (which would be conveyed to New Jersey). Meanwhile, they'll get a pick in that same general range from New York.
That could easily mean another 5-6 loses (Portland, Minnesota Twice, San An, N.Y.) Doesnt get much easier...
You think minor trades are going to be made?? Well, sure. Now, what minor trades could be made that could shake things up and give us and edge.....that would not destroy our 2012 cap space or decimate our young talent and draft picks? You've already stated you think we would be best served moving Martin and Scola on draft night. So, that pretty much limits your trades to guys like Lee/TWill/Bud/Morris/Parsons/PPat/Hill/Goran since Dally and Hasheem are essentially expiring contracts that are either best served used to take on salary in a blockbuster deal or to just let expire and capture the cap space. What kind of deals can be made with those players to shake up this bunch enough to eke into the playoffs without us losing significant future trade value or taking on salary that we don't really want right now? In other words, what minor tweaks can we make that keep all of Morey's options open? Man, I just don't see it. I suppose some other team like Minnesota may get stupid and flip us Anthony Randolph and Pekovic for Thabeet's expiring and a future second. But they would indeed have to be pretty stupid. IMO, if a deal materializes at the deadline it will either be: 1. A blockbuster or 2. A deal that helps us add tradeable assets to the team, such as a future pick or a nice trade exception, or perhaps a little more cap space or possibly another first or second year player that is underperforming that we can make look good in exchange for one of our essentially expiring contracts...Flynn, Thabeet, Hill, Dally, etc. or 3. Morey and Les realize the Dwight/Deron dream is over and trade a bunch of our repetitive players for another above average player that is underperforming or is playing on a lottery team and we make a definitive push for the playoffs where we may get to the 6-8 spot.
NO WAY the Rockets make the 8-seed? I'll give you that it's not an overwhelming likelihood, but you were asking for the Rockets' UPSIDE!!! How can you ask me for a BEST CASE SCENARIO and then tell me there's "no way" it can happen? Regardless, I think moves can be made to help them reach the playoffs.
Because at their best, they cannot get #8. They are worse than last year, Bima. We couldn't get #8 last season with Adelman running our main guys out there until the final game of the season, and them playing their butts off. We are worse this year. You and I disagree on this one. I don't see any way their maximum upside is #8 after watching all this last season and KNOWING that this team is not as good as that one. There is no Hayes. There is no Shane. There is a partially brain-dead Dally. He'll play some nights, will lope others. He's not Chuck, not nearly as good defensively or offensively as Chuck. He's a big hole on offense and he loafs half the time on defense. We do not have the defense, even playing with all intensity, to get to the playoffs. As currently constructed our maximum upside is #14 in the lottery, our maximum downside is top 3 in the lottery. We'll just have to see what trades present themselves at the deadline and which way we are headed after the trade deadline. The great thing about Morey is ..... anything is a possibility at this point. Personally, I am rooting for the blockbuster route. I am hoping that Orlando comes back to earth, that NJ still stinks, and that Otis Smith figures out he has to move Dwight at the deadline or Morey is going to move on and Otis is going to get less out of Dwight during the draft than at the deadline. And that is the key thing for this season. Can Morey and the other GMs convince Otis that the best deal for Dwight as far as Orlando is concerned will be at the trade deadline. If Otis decides not to move Dwight and NJ continues in this game of chicken with Deron and Dwight, and we are still sucking at the trade deadline, then in my opinion, taking the route of incrementally improving this bunch to get to the playoffs won't help us in the long run UNLESS Morey can make moves that increase our tradeable assets going forward while maintaining our cap space and all our options at the same time. That's gonna be a tough task.
Agree to disagree, although I find it humorous that you find our maximum upside to be just ONE SPOT down from where I had it. To claim that there's "no way" to make the playoffs but view a top upside as the #14 pick just seems odd. Regardless, I think your assessment and mine of the realistic projections for this current team are pretty close (although I do NOT see a maximum downside anywhere near the top 3 in the lottery, barring a great deal of lottery luck). Still, we'll just agree to disagree.
LOL, your "best case scenario" with this bunch is #6 in the playoffs. My "best case scenario" with this bunch is last year's benchmark. Pretty big difference there. The thing that puzzles me is I have read you enough to know that you understand what we lost when we lost Chuck. You know what he meant to this team. And how difficult that is to replace. For you to think this team without a major trade could be better than last year's team, knowing what Chuck gave us, puzzles me.
Two points of clarification here: (1) On a team with an many young players as the Rockets have, there is a great deal of "even-the-least-bit-conceivably-possible upside" that could cause a significant upward swing in a best case scenario. Do I think a #6 seed is likely? No. But if T-Will becomes everything we'd all hoped he could be; if Chase, Jordan and Patrick show marked improvement over the course of the season; if Marcus comes back from the D-League ready to contribute in a significant way; if the other guys just play a little better, then you could possibly see a massive upward swing. Again, not at all likely. But you were asking for the best remotely-POSSIBLE scenario, not the best LIKELY scenario. (2) While I definitely realize the Rockets lost a lot in Chuck, I think you discount the team that finished the season last year. You can't just look at the total 2010-11 record and determine that it was the best lottery team. That WAS a playoff team. They had one of the league's best records after the All-Star break. Had that same team come back this season, I think it's a #6 or #7 seed. The loss of Hayes is partially made up by the additions of Dalembert, Parsons and Morris. I don't think they'll be as good for this team as Hayes was, but they could conceivably help this team sneak into the playoffs.
If we were to trade Scola we would have a lot more downside. For example, trade Scola to Boston for Rasheed Wallace's contract and a 1st round pick. This fits with Boston's need for increased offense, and their win-now window. We get a late 1st round pick, and free up playing time for PatPat and Morris. The beauty of this approach is that we could legitimately root for the Rockets to do well while still knowing that their lottery prospects would be significantly improved. When you have a young team, it is more important that the players develop, not that they actually win. Just look at the Thunder the past few years. They lost a lot for 2 years even after they got Durant. But I don't think any one can doubt that Durant developed in that time, or that fans were getting more excited about the team's prospects.
Rasheed Wallace retired. The Celtics do not have his contract to trade. That's just money owed to Wallace that still counts against the cap. Yes, trading Scola would change the Rockets' downside; but I still don't think it gets them a top-5 pick. Maybe #7 or #8. But I also happen to think that if Patrick Patterson played 30+ minutes a night and was made a big part of the offense, he'd (eventually) not be so huge of a drop-off from Scola overall, especially given that he's a superior defender to Scola.
I'm going to root for the Rockets to win not like I have any impact on the team's performance tanking and losing might be better for us overall and I understand that but I will go into every game wanting to win.
That behind-the-backboard turn around he hit yesterday was intriguing too. I am interested to see how his post game develops.
Ahhh, the Thunder. The franchise where LOSING breathed WINNING! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Presti
If only the Thunder were desperate to win-now so we can trade Scola and Martin for Harden and Ibaka. A man can dream right?
By that logic why haven't the Clippers won multiple titles? They sure have had a lot of high draft picks by turning losing into a science.
Good point. I did not realize that about the contract. As for PatPat, yes I think he will eventually be better than Scola. But at the moment he has not shown he can be a primary offensive option, and my best guess is that we lose an additional 3-4 games because of that. I would love to see PatPat go through the process of developing those skills. I think that's something that would be a lot of fun to watch no matter what our record is. I put some thought into where we could trade Scola. There are a few teams that could benefit from him (BOS, OKC, LAC, ORL, SA), though I don't see how we could get more than a low 1st rounder back, and in many cases there might have to be a 3rd team involved for trade exception purposes.
