Well, if you want to re-define conservative and liberal voters to suit your definitions so you can argue Huntsman is conservative, I can't really argue with that. But if you define conservative as what conservative voters actually want, Huntsman doesn't fit the definition very well.
Major, Romney has won both Iowa and NH. None of the other guys has any reason for optimism. Would you now agree Romney's got this wrapped up? mc mark, 40% (or 39) is all he needed in NH. Ball game. The only conceivable roadblock I can think of is Santorum winning SC, which won't happen.
I don't see it. Romney's smart. I don't think Santorum really brings anything to a national ticket (most vps don't) but he can actually hurt you with independents. I think Romney will be too smart to pick someone who can hurt him. He doesn't need to energize the base. I'm thinking someone outside the box might get tabbed. Jeb Bush, Christie, Jon Kyl, Haley, Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina, even Hutchison as a long shot... I just think Romney will try to go more to the middle and pick someone who independents, moderate republicans and blue dog democrats will like. Trying to shore up your base here will be a mistake imo. The better play is to try to get back those indies and far left republicans who might have gone to Obama last time around and then try to grab some of those far right democrats who are disaffected. I'd say Chris Christie would be the best choice but I think geographical interests might keep him from being tabbed. Two Northeast Republicans? I don't know.
I've really liked Huntsman for a while now. I don't post much on the D&D now, so maybe it's not clear, but I've liked him for months ever since his comments on science relative to evolution and global warming. I liked him a lot and liked him more after each debate... ... until I found out he was for the Paul Ryan plan. Now I'm beginning to see that your last point could actually be true. I'm now taking a hard look at Huntsman to see if he's really that good of a candidate. *sigh* Looks like it'll be Obama is 2012 again, no matter who wins the GOP nomination. Paul has too many crazy views, Romney is a scumbag, Huntsman is too conservative, Gingrich is a douchebag, Perry is an idiot, and Santorum is an idiot. Obama's at least intelligent and may grow some balls when he doesn't have another term's re-election looming.
Romney is the clear favorite - no doubt. And he overperformed the base metrics - whether he could outdo McCain's % in 2008 and his own vote # from 2008. I'd give him an 80-90% of winning, simply because of the circumstances of the race. My gut says he still doesn't win if and only if people start dropping out ASAP. But as long as Santorum and Newt both stay in, it's clearly Romney's for the taking. Something big needs to happen for the dynamic to change and one of those two has to crash, letting the other pick up all his votes. Or, one of those two needs to offer the other the VP spot and run together. If this race could come down to Romney vs. Paul vs. either Newt or Santorum, I think the Newtorum candidate would win many states and drag this process out at the very least. And if Paul can keep tracking at 15-20% in every state, it could prevent anyone from getting 50% of the delegates. But the problem is that this needs to happen this week, and there's no reason for either Newt or Santorum to drop out right now. South Carolina promises to be fun and ugly with Newt's Superpac joining the fun. But if Romney wins that, it's certainly over. If Newtorum could pull off a win there, it gets interesting.
Newt is a goner. His meltdown has started. Bury him. Of the two, only Santorum has a remote chance. Even if he won SC, it wouldn't be enough to derail Romney. I still say a new candidate has a better chance of winning than either Newt or Santorum because they are too flawed.
Ha! Newt's new web ad: <iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/IGqtLvPk6mo" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
In terms of santorum, I wouldn't expect much in South Carolina. Not safe for lunch: Spoiler Last I checked, the people in that state hadn't even discovered one of the two key ingredients, and I don't mean poop.
GOP VP Candidate = Marco Rubio Need to pander to Latino voters. GOP thought they could counter Obama's ethnic background by pandering to women with Sarah Palin. I expect them to do another demographic pander this time. Besides, Romney is the ultimate panderer amongst politicians.
Rubio doesn't do a thing for Romney outside of FL. Rubio's lack of appeal to non-Cuban Latino voters around the country would be a major problem. Then again, FL might end up being that important.
Good lord. If Romney gets the nomination, and I'm still not convinced that he will, picking Santorum would be as breathtakingly stupid as McCain picking that goofus from Alaska. Santorum is a social extremist. Not a social conservative, but an extremist. I can think of few things more apt to awaken Democrats or independents to the danger of electing Casper Milktoast, AKA Romney, and insuring their vote for President Obama. Seriously, that would be an incredible blunder by Romney. I hope he does it if he gets the nod. I really do. Those who are upset with some of Obama's policies (or lack thereof), and who voted for him last time, and are either thinking of staying home, or voting for Mitts, would come out of the woodwork to vote for the President. In my opinion. The only thing better than that would be Ron Paul running as a third party candidate, which can't be ruled out.
agree with you on Santorum as VP Deck. I'm guessing the GOP braintrust won't be relying on mcmark's advice here.
I can see that happening, I just wonder if Paul will still as many votes from Obama as Romney. I can see the same youth who voted for Obama voting for Paul if the two ran against each other. If Romney's smart, he puts Paul as his VP.
If Paul does run as a third party candidate, he'll pull a lot more votes from Republicans than he will Democrats. I'm absolutely sure of that. Sure, he'd pick up some "protest" votes from some Democrats, but not nearly as many votes as Paul would steal from Romney, at least in my opinion. And jo mama would be in bliss! He could vote for his hero with a clear conscious, knowing that Paul wasn't pulling a Nadir, the chump who cost Gore the Presidency. Paul as the VP would be interesting. I don't think Romney does that, but it would be an intriguing choice.
Some of the Ron Paul supporters are too radical for anyone to have him as their VP, anyways I'm pretty sure he'd decline. Although he would steal a lot of the student vote like you said. I've never really seen anyone show support for any other candidates besides Obama and Paul on campus at Tx State.
Agreed. I don't want anything to do with that guy. If the election came down to Obama V Santorum I'm writing in Metta World Peace.
